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About 2019 investment trend

January 12, 2019 02:25
source: Investor
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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[About the 2019 investment trend] The public fund said so how to judge the market trend in 2019, how is the public fund judged? How should investors use their funds? In this regard, some public funds told the "Investor Network" that although the economic situation is still not optimistic, due to the easing of liquidity pressure, the valuation of A shares is at a historical low, and the market has certain structural opportunities.

In fact, the good news in 2019 is much earlier than investors expected.

On January 9th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets surged due to favorable policies from the home appliance and auto sectors. On January 7th, A-shares were all relegated to Yuwei, both of which opened higher, the market was very active, and the enthusiasm of investors seemed to be re-emerged.

In fact, as early as the previous January 4 closing, the central bank announced that it will cut financial institutions on January 15 and January 25, respectively.Deposit reserveThe rate is 0.5 percentage points, entering the New Year, and the policy horn is frequently blown.

So, how to put the pulse of the market trend in 2019, public offeringfundHow is it judged? How should investors use their funds? In this regard, some public funds told the "Investor Network" that although the economic situation is still not optimistic, due to the easing of liquidity pressure, the valuation of A shares is at a historical low, and the market has certain structural opportunities.

  Where do you want to invest and consume?

From the overall macro situation, YinhuaFund researchThe ministry believes that from a fundamental point of view, the overall economy is still down in 2019, and the magnitude may be larger than in 2018. From the perspective of sub-items, the investment project still has resilience in the first half of the year, mainlyreal estateInvestment and manufacturing investment have a certain inertia, and infrastructure investment is strongly encouraged by policy; the downward momentum of export items is strong, mainly because the leading indicators of the “export rush” factor in the previous period have already fallen back, and the decline in exports may be 2019. The first quarter was even larger; consumption was constrained by the decline in per capita disposable income growth, and the overall direction remained slow and downward, which was relatively stable compared to the other two.

In addition, we need to be wary of the “stagflation” caused by the divergence between inflation and the economy in the first half of the year, and the possibility of economic deflation in the second half of the year, both of which are beneficial to the market.

3. About 2019 investment trends

Remarks: The data for the fourth quarter and 2019 in 2018 are predicted.

3. About 2019 investment trends

Source of data: Thinking Finance is organized according to the National Bureau of Statistics

  Xinhua FundChief strategyAnalystLiu Bin also believes that the overall economic situation will continue to decline in 2019. He said thatGDPIt may fall to 6.4%, while nominal GDP will fall even more, around 8.2%. annualCPIThere may be a high of nearly 3% in mid-2019,PPIThere will be a downward trend throughout the year. Therefore, the growth rate of nominal GDP growth will be faster than real GDP.

Lu Yuxuan, a researcher at UBS Asset Allocation Department, believes that “inflation will be mild this year. In the context of deleveraging, investment and consumption are both moderately downward, and there is some pressure on the entire economy.”

He also believes that the main core of 2018 is the so-called "de-leverage" and will begin to shift to "stable leverage" in the second half of the year. Starting from mid-2017, the series of “de-leverage” policies pursued are still very effective. After entering 2019, for the "de-leverage" piece, because the official statement has begun to mention "stable leverage", which means that the entire "de-leverage" process has entered the second half.

Liu Bin said that there were several major events in 2019: First, the A-shares increased the proportion of the MSCI index; the second and June A-shares were officially included in the FTSE index. According to this calculation, it will bring 400 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan of incremental funds to the entire market in 2019.

  Where are the big investment opportunities in 2019?

Lu Yuxuan believes that this year's A-share investment opportunities are significantly better than 2018, and there are certain structural opportunities.

In addition, when talking about market performance, Liu Bin believes that the market will present a structural market in 2019, the main factor affecting the stock price is the company.Performance,no riskinterest rateAnd risk premium, structurally biased towards reverse growth cycle industries, and growing industries, in the economy and riskinterest rateUnder the general environment of the downside, it is expected to obtain excess returns.

"In 2019, all A shares were deducted from the financial sector.Net profitIt will grow, and the current market valuation has reached the bottom area. As the overall performance declines, the market valuation will be lower. ”

In view of the growth performance of listed companies' performance, looking to the future,Yinhua FundThe research department believes that the overall valuation may be a volatile trend in the first half of the year, mainly because the domestic and foreign policies will have different possibilities in the first quarter, which will lead to different risk preference performance, and there will be a large number of policies in the second quarter. Will bring some repairs.

Yinhua Fund Research Department expects that the overall year-on-year growth rate of listed companies will rebound in Q2 and then turn negative. The growth rate may turn into the first quarter of 2020. From the perspective of market profit expectations, Q4 and Q1 next year will continue to decline. The pre-judgment will turn positive in Q2-Q3 next year. As the growth rate of equity has been positive for a long time and has maintained steady growth in recent years, it is expected that EPS (earnings per share) in 2019 may be worse than corporate earnings, and the overall profit is under pressure.

When it comes to the specific investment sector, in the eyes of the Xinhua Fund, the main players with high probability of optimism are: 5G, non-bank finance, real estate, construction, new energy vehicles, electric power, communications, computers, military and so on.

According to the judgment of Xinhua Fund, the peak investment period of the 5G industry may be in 2019, 2020, 2021, and related components are also worth investing; new energy vehicles have the potential to grow ten times in ten years, parts and power batteries in the sub-sector There is a large room for growth; while the counter-cyclical nature of the military sector is strong, and in the context of the economic downturn, it will receive excess returns.

In any case, in the face of many uncertain internal and external factors, 2019 is still full of challenges for every investor.

(Article source: Investor News)

                                (Editor: DF309)


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