After entering November, the domestic new corn market can be said to usher in the largest stage of the harvest as the late-maturing corn harvest in China is basically completed. Looking back at October, the first listing of North China corn can be said to have achieved the state of "high opening and high walking" before the market. Later in the Northeast, the corn market has basically achieved a higher price than the previous year. Then, after entering November, will domestic corn continue its previous strong operating state and continue the corn bull market?
The author believes that the so-called high place is not cold, the rapid rise of new corn in the early stage of the market is likely to overdraw the late increase space, and the current supply and demand structure of the corn spot market is not enough to support the current spot price of corn. There is a further rise on the basis. Therefore, the price of the future corn spot market, especially the new corn market, is likely to usher in a more obvious trend of correction. The reason for this determination is mainly based on the analysis of the supply and demand structure of the domestic corn spot market. Since the domestic corn market has gradually changed from a policy-based market to a market-oriented one, the price of corn spot is largely determined by the supply and demand structure of the current market.
From a supply point of view, with the completion of late-ripening corn harvesting, the new corn will usher in a concentrated phase, and the supply of new corn on the market will continue to increase. From another point of view, this year's policy grain auction volume exceeded 90 million tons, and the actual transaction volume in the last month of the auction exceeded 16 million tons, and this part of the policy grain will also face the state of centralized outbound. This will also be a powerful complement to the supply of the spot market. Moreover, considering that the Spring Festival in 2019 will arrive earlier, the enthusiasm for grain and agricultural sales in the first half of December and even in the first half of January will be higher, which will also put a lot of pressure on the spot market.
In contrast, demand, feed farming, as the weather continues to cool, the demand for aquatic products will enter the off-season demand, the demand for poultry is basically stable under the support of the future Spring Festival demand, especially in the traditional fourth quarter. The demand for hog farming with better demand at the end of the year is affected by the epidemic situation of swine fever. Although the current situation of the epidemic has been alleviated, the demand for pork terminals has fallen sharply due to the lack of thorough cure. It will have a substantial impact on the amount of pig breeding and the amount of replenishment in the future.
It can be said that as the biggest terminal for the rigid demand of corn, especially high-quality corn, pig breeding is under the influence of the current epidemic, and the demand expectation will be severely suppressed in the short term and in the future, which will be greatly reduced. The demand forecast for the corn market has a phased impact on the spot price of corn, especially the price of premium corn. The corn deep processing industry has been relatively stable in the past two years, and the stability of the terminal product price has also greatly guaranteed the profit of the processing enterprises. It can be said that the demand for corn in deep processing enterprises is relatively stable in the future, plus ethanol gasoline, etc. With the support of policies, the long-term demand growth of the processing industry is still relatively obvious, but it is far from being able to hydrolyze the thirst, and its support for the growth of corn demand in the short term is far from enough. In addition, from the perspective of the recent easing of Sino-US relations, the price of by-products of processing enterprises has also shown a trend of collective correction, which will also affect the start-up situation of processing enterprises to a certain extent.
There are indications that, although the supply and demand structure of the whole year, corn prices seem to be in a state of sufficient upward momentum, but in the short-term, especially in the late fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year, the supply of corn spot market It is still very plentiful, and the demand side is unable to grow in the short term due to unexpected factors such as swine fever. Therefore, in the future, the price of the corn market, especially the new corn, is hard to perform better, and the phased callback It seems inevitable.
(Article source: Pig Price Network)