Oriental Wealth Network on the 11th, domestic commodity futures closed most of the day, but the black futures collectively looked up, the double-focus led the market, the rebar center gradually moved up, the hot volume fluctuated strongly, at the close, the coke rose 3.53 %, rebar rose 0.43% to 3,539 yuan.
Since December last year, rebar futures have continued to oscillate. From the spot market, trading was light and prices continued to fall.
Demand is expected to pick up after the year
Data show that from January to November 2018, infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.7% year-on-year, which was flat compared with January-October. The entrusted loans and trust loans in the newly added social financing scale decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan and 0.45 trillion respectively. The growth rate of infrastructure construction has rebounded, indicating that the country’s policy of stimulating the steady growth of infrastructure in the past six months has begun to bear fruit.
The investment in real estate development increased by 9.7% from January to November in 2018, which was the same as that in January-October. From January to November 2018, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 1.4% year-on-year, down by 0.8 percentage points from January to October, a sharp drop of 8.4 percentage points from the same period of 2017. This shows that sales are still suppressed under the background of real estate regulation. From a general perspective, the return of real estate sales accounted for more than half of the total return of real estate companies, and the decline in real estate sales will certainly curb future real estate investment. However, from a rhythm perspective, real estate investment will show a resistance decline, it is difficult to have a cliff-down. Therefore, after the Spring Festival, the return of real estate will still form a certain support for steel demand.
Production gradually falls back
In the week of January 4, the utilization rate of rebar capacity of the national building materials steel mill was 71.56%, down 1.32 percentage points from last week. Among them, the long-process capacity utilization rate was 76.61%, down 1.29 percentage points from last week. In terms of output, in the week of January 4, the national building steel mill rebar production was 3,264,300 tons, down 65,000 tons from last week. Among them, 2,805,500 tons of long-flow rebar, down 68,300 tons from last week.
As steel prices fell, electric furnace profits began to fall. According to the profit model simulation, the profit of electric furnace in North China has already suffered losses, while the profit of electric furnace in East China is close to the break-even line. The fall in profits has led to a reduction in the utilization rate of electric furnace capacity. The data shows that 53 independent electric furnace manufacturers, the capacity utilization rate of 61% in the week of January 4, a significant drop from the 77% level in October. On the whole, due to the poor profit, the capacity utilization rate of rebar began to fall, which also led to a decrease in the output of blast furnaces and electric furnaces.
Winter storage quietly started
Current rebar stocks remain at low levels. According to my steel network statistics, in the week of January 4, the stock of rebar intermediate links was 5,309,700 tons, an increase of 264,200 tons from last week. Among them, the social stock of rebar 35 city was 3,351,400 tons, an increase of 202,300 tons compared with last week, and the rebar steel mill inventory was 1,958,300 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from last week.
In the week of January 4, the average daily turnover of building materials was 155,000 tons, up 0.6 million tons from the previous month. Affected by the sharp losses in the winter storage last year, this year traders are generally cautious in winter storage. The current spot price is still in a relatively high position, so although the winter storage has begun to show signs of success, the traders' winter enthusiasm is still not high, which also causes the current inventory level to be at an absolute low in history. If the growth of winter storage stocks is low, this may become an important variable driving the market in the future.
Overall, with the central bank’s reduction in deposit reserve ratio last Friday, market expectationscurrencyThe policy will turn to full easing. At the same time, it is expected that the demand for real estate will still maintain a certain degree of resilience, and it is difficult to have a cliff-down. On the supply side, due to the fall in steel prices in the previous period, steel mills' profits contracted, which in turn affected steel production. The cautious attitude of traders has made the winter storage overall weaker this year, making inventory at the lowest level in history. Based on the basic situation of both ends of supply and demand, it is expected that there will be a rebound in rebar when the demand for resuming work is released after the Spring Festival. In terms of operation, investors are advised to lay out multiple orders before the Spring Festival. (Source: Futures Daily)