Every year, many people love to buy some gold to add joy. The rise in the price of gold ornaments can not withstand the enthusiasm of the "Chinese aunts" to buy and buy. But this sentiment does not seem to spread to financial markets. During the Chinese New Year in 2019, the gold price of the outer disk showed a high level of oscillation, but there was still no obvious trend signal.US economic dataThe dollar is still strong under the weakening of global economic growth expectations. On the other hand, the Fed’s dovish is expected to increase the dollar.interest rateDownward adjustment space. The adjustment of the gold price is still waiting for the signal to appear.
Gold: High fluctuations in the outer plate during the Spring Festival
DollarcurrencyAnd the dollarinterest rateThe differentiation pricing is still continuing, and the market's pessimistic expectations for economic growth have pushed the US dollar index to continue to strengthen: gold is under pressure, and the Fed's expected release of the Federal Reserve's fear of economic downturn continues to put downward pressure on US dollar interest rates: gold has support. Overall, gold is characterized by high volatility in this differentiated dollar variable.
US dollar interest rate: continue to show pressure
Starting from the attributes of gold, real interest rates drive the volatility of gold prices. The large fluctuations in the global asset market show concern about the prospects for future economic growth. Whether the Bank of India or the European Central Bank loses confidence that inflation cannot rebound, or whether the Fed continues to release relative doves, it has brought about the continued strength of the interest rate market. .
The Fed continued to comment on the release of relative doves during the holidays. In February, senior Fed officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, repeatedly mentioned the external risks facing the US economy and continued to release signals to suspend interest rate hikes. Former Fed Chairman Yellen even bluntly said that if the US economy is affected by the external environment, the possibility of a rate cut will not be ruled out. At the same time, the New York Fed model continues to cut expectations for future economic growth, expected in the first quarter of this yearGDPThe annual growth rate was 2.17%, which was lower than the 2.39% expected a week ago. The GDP growth rate in 2019 is expected to be only 1.6%, and the forecast in October last year was 1.9%. Therefore, under the role of the Fed's doves, the market showed short-term excitement of risky assets and the heat of safe-haven assets, and the US bond interest rate continued to fall.
From the pricing point of view, although the current market is weak for future inflation expectations, in the case of short-term inflation decline, the growth rate of non-agricultural wages in the United States in January maintained a growth rate of +3.2%. Therefore, it can be considered that the change in the interest rate end brings a more direct drive to the price of gold, and the continued weakening of the US dollar interest rate continues to bring the support of the gold price. However, from the perspective of the weak trend of the interest rate futures market, the Fed is still showing signs of weakening. However, the impact of pessimism cannot be underestimated.
US dollar index: passive pressure on gold
Although we have noticed that the market's pessimistic expectations for the US economy have driven down the US dollar interest rate, the market's weaker expectations for non-US regions have driven the relatively weaker characteristics of the US dollar index. On the one hand, the pressure on negotiations continues to rise, bringing the market's expectations that the European economy is not strong; on the other hand, the US's continued withdrawal from international agreements has increased the risk aversion of the market.
From the perspective of the central bank, emerging markets continue to show weakness: from the RRR cut before the holiday to the cut-off action of the Bank of India during the holiday season, the statement of the increase in the interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the market for non-US regions. Risk concerns. This weakness, driven by exchange rate pricing, has driven the US dollar index to strengthen in the face of relatively strong US economic performance.
Outlook: the risk of gold adjustment
Looking ahead to the market, from the perspective of the US interest rate futures market, we believe that the market has relatively sufficient pricing for risk, and the focus of the future is still on the improvement of risk appetite. On the one hand, with the approaching deadline for the three-month negotiation between China and the United States, the strength of the consultations between the two countries continues to increase, and it is expected to continue to improve the market's concerns about the peak of the cycle; on the other hand, from the perspective of credit pricing, whether it is pre-risk Rio Tinto, or because ofOil priceRussia, which has brought back pressure, has shown more optimistic improvement characteristics in recent credit ratings. Therefore, with the improvement of market risk appetite, the credit market is gradually optimistic, and the pessimistic market has room for improvement. From the perspective of “hazard/risk-safe”, gold continues to face challenges, and the downside risks remain large.
(Article source: Futures Daily)