On March 14, most of the domestic steel market held steady operation, and Tangshan Pufang billet rose by 20 yuan to 3,490 yuan/ton. Recently, Hebei and Shanxi steel mills have been inspected and limited in production, and the demand for downstream steel is still recovering.Steel inventories continue to decline. Despite the lack of confidence in the futures market, the business mentality is stable and prices remain firm.
On the 14th, the black futures steel was weak and strong. With the level I response to the lifting of heavy polluted weather in Hebei, the market expects steel production to rebound, and Lido raw materials are bearish.SnailMain forceThe weak shock is still above the MA5. The DIF intersects with the DEA in parallel. The third line of the RSI indicator is located at 55-56. It runs above the upper rail of the Bollinger Band. The technical indicators are neutral and continue to oscillate around the 3800 range.
First, the steel spot
Construction steel: YesterdayConstruction steel prices were strong, and the average price of rebar in major cities was 4053 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of sub-regions, Central China, North China, and Northwest China rose, while other regions remained stable. Specific to the market yesterday, the period of snail shock operation, the market trading has weakened, some regions rose after the high turnover, but considering the limited inventory pressure, the price did not appear loose, the overall steady and strong operation. From the data performance of yesterday, the output of construction steel increased, and the overall construction steel inventory decreased, indicating that the market has good digestibility and no obvious risks in the fundamentals. The inventory de-speed is faster, the supply end is affected by environmental protection, and the output cannot be released.,It is expected that over the course of time, construction steel prices will run in a strong and volatile situation.
Hot rolled coil:On the 14th, the hot-rolling price was in the morning and the afternoon fell. Today, the low market turnover is still acceptable, the high acceptance will be slightly lower, and the merchants have no intention to drop the price. Therefore, the price adjustment space is not large. Steel mills reported that the turnover in March was nearly 100-120 yuan/ton higher than that in February. The overall profit of steel mills was 400-450 yuan/ton, and the overall order is still acceptable. From the difference between the three places, the North China region 3790-3800 yuan / ton, East China at 3820-3830 yuan / ton, South China at 3830-3840 yuan / ton, which combined with market inventory, it can be seen that the overall pressure of the northern market is less than the South market.In terms of short-term market conditions, demand can still be maintained, but the destocking rate is slightly slower, and the output in the later period has continued upward momentum, which has a certain pressure on the whole price.
Cold rolled coil: YesterdayThe national cold-rolled coils were on the rise and fall. The national average price was 4423/ton, up by RMB 3/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of Shanghai, Lecong and Tianjin were 4340, 4370 and 4260 yuan/ton respectively. According to market feedback, the market as a whole showed an ups and downs in the market yesterday, with Nanchang falling slightly by RMB 10/ton and Changsha by RMB 40/ton. In the near future, the market is greatly affected by the futures market. There is no unilateral market in the futures market. The market traders' mentality is suffering. The market wait-and-see mood is getting stronger and the volume of transactions is generally maintained. In terms of inventory, yesterday's cold-rolled inventory social library and factory warehouse fell by 251,000 tons, affected by the continued decline in inventory, and the market trading atmosphere improved in the afternoon.On the whole, it is expected that the cold rolling market will continue to be dominated by shocks.
Plate:On the 14th, the domestic plate market price consolidation became stronger. The average price of the national 20mm board was 4012 yuan/ton, which was 3 yuan/ton higher than the average price on the 13th. Among them, Guangzhou, Changsha, Xi'an, Urumqi and other places rose slightly by 10-30 yuan / ton, and the rest of the market operated smoothly. Yesterday's futures were weak, and the market performance of the market was poor, but the market price remained strong and consolidating. Yesterday's inventory data showed that plate stocks continued to decline, resources in some areas were tight, and specifications were incomplete, providing strong support for spot market prices. Although the market demand performance is poor, but the steel mills have limited production, the pressure on the supply side is reduced, and the market is showing a weak situation of supply and demand.In summary, it is expected that the mid-board price may maintain a consolidation trend in the short term.
Second, the raw material spot market
Imported mine:On the 14th, the import mine market was active. Early trading traders' enthusiasm was acceptable, with the price of PB powder at Shandong Port at 635 yuan/ton and the price at PB block at 855 yuan/ton. The quotation was steady and slightly higher than that on the 13th. In terms of steel mills, the morning market is still unclear, only a few steel mills are asking for quotations, but there are fewer. In the late afternoon, the market continued to rise, the market sentiment was boosted, the buyers and sellers were active, and the volume of transactions rose.
Coke:On the 14th, the coke market was stable and weak. In North China, the price range of coke was further expanded yesterday. The market sentiment was pessimistic. The enthusiasm of coke enterprises for shipment declined. Some stocks of coke enterprises in Tangshan area accumulated a small amount. East China: After this round of price cuts, the pessimistic fermentation of the coke market, the high inventory of port coke, the enthusiasm of port traders to increase shipments, the market price slightly weakened. At present, the inventory of steel mills in East China maintains a medium-high level.Some players believe that there is still a certain downside in the coke market, but the resistance will increase when the profit of the coke enterprise is compressed.
Scrap: YesterdayThe scrap market is mixed, and the steel mills are more scattered, with a drop of 10-30 yuan/ton. The price increase steel mills are concentrated in the Hebei region, with an increase of 30-50 yuan / ton. The Mysteel scrap price index was 2534.4, down 0.07%. Yesterday, the price of steel bills rose by 20 yuan/ton, which is good for the scrap market. At the same time, the environmental protection in the north has strengthened, and some scrap processing sites have been affected. Steel mills in Hebei Province have started to increase their prices slightly.The recovery of the steel market has supported the scrap price to a certain extent. The mentality of the scrap market has changed, and the desire to sell at low prices is not strong. The possibility of scrap falling is small, and it is expected that the scrap market will be dominated in the short term.
Third, the special steel spot market
Ute Steel: YesterdayThe market price of Ute Steel was generally stable, and individual markets rose slightly by RMB 10-20/ton. Looking at the country 45#4215 yuan / ton, 40Cr4436 yuan / ton, 20CrMnTi4599 yuan / ton, 20 # tube billet 4171 yuan / ton. At present, the total inventory of special steel products in the country is 981,400 tons, which is 15.6 million tons less than last week, down 1.56% from the previous year, down 0.35 million tons from the same period of last year, down 0.36% year-on-year, and increasing by 12,240 tons from the average of 2018. 14.25%.This week, the inventory of the national special steel mills declined slightly from last week. It is expected that the price of the special high-speed steel market will be strong.
Industrial wire:On the 14th, the prices of industrial wire rods in the country were basically stable. The average price of cold-rolled, brushed and hard-wired countries was flat, up 3 yuan/ton and flat compared with the previous trading day. In terms of steel mills, yesterday, Qian’an Jiujiang variety wire rods were tendered and the factory was approved. The price was raised by 40 yuan/ton from the previous period. In addition, the ex-factory price of wire drawing materials of steel mills in North China continued to increase by 10-30 yuan/ton. At present, the ex-factory price of Q195 in Wu'an area is about 3,900 yuan/ton, which is higher than the price in the southern region. In terms of transactions, the increase was 31.89% compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the North China region was affected by the Jiujiang bidding, which increased the most, and the East China region decreased. In terms of inventory, this week's inventory was 954,500 tons, a decrease of 39,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.93%.On the whole, it is expected that the price of industrial wire rods will continue to fluctuate and adjust today.
Fourth, steel market forecast
Lido factor:In January-February 2019, infrastructure investment increased by 4.3% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of 2018, indicating that the government's fiscal expenditure has increased. This year's new infrastructure projects are obviously more than last year.In January-February 2019, real estate investment increased by 11.6% year-on-year, which continued to grow rapidly. The main reason was that housing enterprises concentrated on land acquisition last year, and projects under construction were speeding up.
From the data of infrastructure and real estate investment, the production activities of the construction industry in the first quarter are still in a high economic range. According to the data of Mysteel monitoring traders, the average daily turnover of construction steel last week was 175,000 tons. The average daily trading volume this week exceeded 200,000 tons, and this level was reached in April 2018.
While the demand for downstream steel is gradually picking up, steel mills in Shanxi and Hebei provinces have increased their production limits due to environmental protection. The fundamentals of supply and demand have continued to improve, and steel inventories have dropped significantly. According to Mysteel's monitoring, the inventory of sample steel mills this week was 5.68 million tons, down 7.7% on a week-on-week basis and down 18.1% from the same period of the previous year. The social stock of steel was 17.804 million tons, down 3.8% on a week-on-week basis.In the short term, the steel market may run at a high level.
Negative factors:In January-February 2019, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, and the land purchase area of housing enterprises dropped by 34.1% year-on-year. The cooling of the sales terminal will be gradually transmitted to the investment terminal. In the medium and long term, the growth rate of real estate investment will fall.
From the perspective of the inventory cycle, industrial enterprises entered the replenishment stage in 2016, and the commodity market entered a boom period. Since 2018, industrial enterprises have gradually entered the destocking stage, and the commodity market will enter a recession.Manufacturing investment increased by 5.9% in January-February 2019, and manufacturing value added increased by 5.6% year-on-year. The growth rate declined.
In addition, the supply-side structural reform dividend has come to an end, and the task of de-capacity in the steel industry has been basically completed. The national crude steel output in the first two months of this year increased by 9.2% year-on-year.The benefits of the steel industry have improved and stimulated the recovery of production. Although it was subject to environmental protection and production restrictions in March, the supply side faced great pressure in April. In the medium and long term, the steel market is facing adjustmentrisk.
(Article source: My steel network)