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The crude oil market lacks direction signals. Domestic refined oil price adjustments are “grounded”

March 15, 2019 08:07
Author: Zhou Xiaoya
source: Futures daily

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Summary
[The lack of direction in the crude oil market, domestic product oil price adjustment "slounged"] On the 14th, the National Development and Reform Commission informed that since the domestic refined oil price adjustment on February 28, 2019, the international market oil price fluctuated slightly, according to the current domestic refined oil price mechanism. The average price of the first 10 working days on March 14 is less than 50 yuan per ton compared with the average price of 10 working days before February 28. According to Article 7 of the "Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices", the prices of gasoline and diesel oil will not be adjusted, and the unadjusted amount will be added or offset when the next price adjustment is made. (Futures Daily)

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On the 14th, the National Development and Reform Commission informed that since February 28, 2019, the countryRefined oilInternational market since price adjustmentOil priceSmall fluctuations, according to the current domestic refined oil price mechanism, the average price of the first 10 working days on March 14 is less than 50 yuan per ton compared with the average price of 10 working days before February 28. According to Article 7 of the "Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices", this time,DieselThe price is not adjusted, and the unadjusted amount is added or offset when it is included in the next price adjustment.

Since the beginning of this year, refined oil prices have experienced four consecutive increases, domesticgasolineThe cumulative increase was 670 yuan / ton, diesel has increased by 645 yuan / ton.

"Because the domestic refined oil price is adjusted according to the changes in international oil prices in the past two weeks, the international oil price has been in the sideways recently, so there will be no adjustment in the domestic refined oil price."AnalystYao Wei said that the current international crude oil market is at a stage of long and short game, and there is no obvious direction signal.

It is understood that the recent good news in the crude oil market continues, OPEC's major oil-producing countries implement production reduction plans, coupled with Venezuela's oil exports affected by political turmoil and power outages, the market is not optimistic about crude oil supply expectations, pushing oil prices up. At the same time, data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 3.862 million barrels to 449.1 million barrels in the week ended March 8, with an expected increase of 2.655 million barrels and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 672,000. barrel. Gasoline inventories fell by 4.624 million barrels, a four-week decline, the largest reduction since October last year.

Although there are many good news on the fundamentals, the price of crude oil is still oscillating. Huang Lijun, general manager of Shenzhen Zhaofang Petrochemical Investment Management Department, believes that due to the macroeconomic downturn between the United States and Europe, the demand for crude oil is not optimistic and has a negative impact on oil prices. According to recent economic data from the United States, US durable goods orders and construction spending have performed strongly, butPPIThe data was worse than expected and the US dollar index continued to fall.

Regarding the current situation of long and short market differences, Huang Lijun said that the short-term market will still be in an oscillating pattern. "Our view of the short-term oil price is still more volatile. At present, due to US sanctions, Venezuela's crude oil exports have been greatly reduced, and OPEC's production reduction plan still has an impact on fundamentals."

"The focus of the recent crude oil market is the situation in Venezuela." Yao Wei said that from the recent market, most of the positive news of the fundamentals is reflected in the price, but the oil price increase is still not large. Overall, the situation that crude oil prices are going sideways for several weeks requires market attention.

It is worth mentioning that, in Yao’s view, from the perspective of funds, crude oil prices also lacked upward momentum. "From the perspective of WTI crude oil options positions, a large number of call options positions are concentrated at $60/barrel, indicating that the main position of short-selling defense is $60/barrel. The good news that appeared in the past week has finally given the bulls some advantages, but Did not break through the $60/barrel gap that the bears are dying. At the same time,ETFPosition data also shows that the market does not form a consistent bullish expectation for oil prices, US oilfund(USO) data show that there has been a net outflow of funds for four consecutive weeks, indicating that the market is concerned about the current risk of rising oil prices. ”

Combining the current market fundamentals and technical aspects, he believes that the situation in Venezuela is expected to continue to push oil prices up slightly, but the probability of a sharp rise is low. It is expected that WTI oil prices will approach $60/barrel or slightly over $60 in the next few days. Barrels, but the risk of callbacks in the later stages is greater.

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(Article source: Futures Daily)

                (Editor: DF318)

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