Yesterday, Hujiao 1905Main forceThe contract fell slightly by 0.66% to close at RMB 1,230/ton. Since last week, Hujiao's main contract has started to rise and fall, and the price has shown a continuous decline. According to market participants, this is because the early stage of the reduction of exports by the rubber-producing countries has already been reflected in the disk. At the same time, the low-yield period will gradually end in April, the supply-side tight expectations will disappear, and the super-added value-added tax will exist for the short-term existence of the rubber market. Negative, it is expected that Hujiao will remain in a weak posture.
It is understood that the global natural rubber has entered a low-yield period, and the purchase price of overseas raw materials has continued to rise. China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia have all stopped cutting. The northern part of Thailand has been completely shut down, and the south is also close to stop cutting. In a few areas, there is production, raw material prices continue to increase, the price of glue is 50.25 baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 40 baht/kg. The spread is constantly widening. Indonesia is in a transitional period and production will continue to increase in the later period.
Baocheng FuturesAnalystChen Dong told the Futures Daily that the main reason for the recent decline in Hujiao's main contract was the seasonal downturn. “From mid-March to the end of April each year, Hujiao will stage a May contract shift to the September contract. According to the trend of the Hujiao September contract in 2011-2018, the September contract will rise in the next month and a half. The probability is only 25%, the probability of falling is as high as 75%, and the average decline is 4.96%. Among them, during the period of 2015, the macro liquidity has covered the fundamentals of the plastic market, causing the price of rubber to rise; the rise in 2016 This is because the flooding in Thailand has led to an increase in production expectations and improved the unfavorable situation of supply and demand. In addition to the six years, the pressure on the supply side has gradually picked up due to the opening season of the new year, resulting in a weakening of the supply and demand side. Becoming the dominant factor has the upper hand and suppressing the price of rubber." Chen Dong said.
At the same time, China's implementation of a larger tax cuts has become the focus of the futures market. Among them, the deepening of VAT reform will reduce the current 16% tax rate of industries such as manufacturing to 13%, and the VAT reduction is expected to be implemented after May. At that time, it will be negative for commodity prices, and will also bring the upstream and downstream belts of the natural rubber industry chain. Come to a big impact.
Chen Dong said that, first of all, in the upstream industry, the VAT reduction will significantly increase the profit of rubber companies in the process chain, which is to a certain extent.MeetingInspire the production enthusiasm of enterprises and expand the supply of rubber. Secondly, in the downstream tire industry, the reduction of value-added tax will play a role in saving the cost of raw material procurement, because the deduction for input tax will be reduced simultaneously, but the finished product will be sold at the same time. Also down.
“Because the price of the finished goods including tax is the purchase price of raw materials including tax + processing costs + corporate profits + other taxes and fees, the proportion of VAT on the raw materials and finished products will decrease in the same proportion, which will result in a decrease in the sales income of finished products including tax. Savings. Under the premise of fixed sales, processing costs and other taxes and fees, the production profit of the tire industry has reduced the risk, which affects the demand for raw materials, which has a certain negative impact on the short-term price of glue." Chen Dong said.
(Article source: Futures Daily)