On the 15th, Oriental Wealth Network, domestic commodity futures closed at most, the white sugar, coke, hot coil, Zheng cotton and rapeseed futures rose, the white sugar futures continued the strong trend in the previous period,Main forceThe contract rose 3.47% to close at 5,420 yuan.For the sugar market, Jinrui Futures believes that the medium and short period maintains a strong pattern of narrow oscillations.
Recently, some media reported that Jiangsu Jiangyin border checkpoints, customs smuggling, maritime and long-term public security units and other units coordinated operations, cracked a sugar smuggling case, arrested 7 suspects, and seized one smuggling ship. The wheel is loaded with more than 300 tons of white sugar, worth 2 million yuan, and is suspected of evading taxes of nearly 1.1 million yuan.
It is understood that the Jiangyin border checkpoint on April 9 has a clue that a Chinese ship "Zheyu 288" will be anchored in Wuxi Jiangyin on the early morning of the 10th. Therefore, the station quickly launched the joint logistics cooperation mechanism. The border inspection, customs smuggling, maritime and long-distance public security departments and other departments dispatched 4 law enforcement vessels on the same day, intercepting the vessel in the waters of the Yangtze River Jiangyin section. After repeated calls, the parking was stopped. The ship was chased and forced to stop.
According to the investigation, the smuggled white sugar came from Thailand, and the “Zheyu Machine 288” round was loaded on the high seas and was ready to be smuggled to Jiangyin for sale. At present, the Jiangyin Customs Anti-smuggling Bureau is conducting a deep excavation of the case.
Although the government has been strict in cracking down on smuggling of sugar in the past two years, there are always people who will take risks. It is understood that the profit per ton of smuggled sugar has been maintained at 2000-3000 yuan / ton for a long time, however, the smuggling of sugar in this season has been significantly reduced.
Multi-factors boost the price of white sugar
In recent trading days, the domestic sugar futures continued to rise sharply, causing widespread concern in the industry. The increase in the price of white sugar exceeded the expectations of many people.
On the night of April 9th, white sugar futures rose sharply. As of April 10th, the sugar futures contract of 1909 rose 126 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.48%, the daily increase of warehouse is about 116,000 hands; the sugar futures 1905 contract rose 77 yuan / ton The increase of 1.51% is the contract with the lowest increase among all contracts, and the lightening of the warehouse is more than 50,000. In the next few trading days, the white sugar futures continued the upward trend, and there was still a volume of cooperation. As of the close of the night of last Friday, the 1909 contract of white sugar futures hit a high of 5369 yuan / ton, just 4 trading days, the white sugar futures 1909 contract rose 5.7%.
"This price of white sugar rebounded sharply, not the cause of the industry, nor the reason for the change in the balance of supply and demand. In the case that the southern sugar factory is still being squeezed, and the places in Guangxi and Yunnan have not been squeezed, the supply pressure in the whole season is under pressure. At the biggest time, the price of white sugar rebounded so much, mainly becauseBrokerSexual funds are also the factors of so-called over-the-counter funding. Li Xiaowei, a researcher at the German futures white sugar, told the Futures Daily reporter.
Li Xiaowei said that the stock market rebounded earlier than the futures market. Nanning Sugar Industry was on the 3rd of this month due to the implementation of the delisting risk warning cumSuspensionofannouncementOn the 4th day of suspension, the “delisting risk warning” was implemented from April 4th. The stock abbreviation was changed from “Nanning Sugar Industry” to “*ST South Sugar”, and the day-to-day fluctuations of the company’s stock trading after the implementation of the delisting risk warning The limit is 5%. On the 4th, the opening of the daily limit, April 8Resumption of tradingAfter that, it rose 5.02% on the last Monday. The second trading day of the resumption of trading, that is, the opening limit of the opening on April 9th, and the opening of the daily limit in less than half an hour on the 10th, the subsequent two trading days, the increase was 3.73 respectively. %, 2.09%.
When the Nanning Sugar Industry was executed in the Nanning Sugar Industry, the price was narrowed in the narrow range around 9 yuan. The COFCO Sugar Industry began to rise sharply on Monday. It was sealed on the daily limit on the afternoon of April 10, last Thursday. Rushed to 11.65 yuan.
The Guangdong-Guizhou Shares (formerly known as Guitang) also maintained a price range of 6 yuan before the Nanning Sugar Industry was executed. The price of the Guangdong-Guizhou shares began to rise sharply on Monday, and the daily limit was reached on the afternoon of April 10.
In addition, Li Xiaowei said that the rumors of the production area meeting to discuss the extension of trade security measures to benefit the price of sugar. The sugar protection measures have been implemented for two years and are currently at the 90% tariff stage. After May 22 this year, the sugar import tariff will be reduced to 5% to 85%. After May 21, 2020, the sugar import tariff will return to the normal level, that is, the quota. The internal tariff of 1.945 million tons is 15%, and the additional tariff is 50%. After the end of the trade protection period, the profits of importing and smuggling sugar will be greatly improved. The current industrial infrastructure conditions in traditional production areas such as Guangxi have not been fundamentally improved. After the tariff reduction, it will be more difficult for the sugar industry, so next May 22 Whether the extension of the sugar trade protection measures should be applied for and the integration of funds should be the focus of the discussion. "If it is postponed, this will be a major positive support for the whole industry. The profits of regular imports and smuggled sugar will be greatly reduced, the import enthusiasm will also be hit, and the external sugar source will be substantially reduced."
“The rise in the price of sugar outside has also driven up the price of domestic white sugar futures.” Li Xiaowei pointed out that the Brazilian sugarcane industry association recently released a biweekly report. In the second half of March, sugar cane crushing in sugar mills in central and southern Brazil decreased by 9.6% year-on-year. At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for the US sugar stocks outlook, driving the US sugar rebound. Raw sugar futures regained the previous trading day's lost ground on Tuesday. The May contract rose 0.21 cents to 12.78 cents/lb. London May sugar futures closed up $2 to $328.20/ton.
Li Xiaowei said that the short-term reduction in production and exports in Brazil will support prices, and the bottom of the US sugar is increasing. Brazil is driving, Thailand and India are still being squeezed, supply is sufficient, production expectations are constantly adjusted, and supply pressures need to be resolved in order to usher in a trend.
Internal and external discs accelerate differentiation
Jinrui FuturesResearch reportIt is pointed out that the price of ICE raw sugar first rose and then fell. The rise of crude oil futures brought support to raw sugar. However, after the price rise, the selling of the manufacturers also brought great pressure to the market. The CFTC position began to move rapidly after entering March. Net long positions turned to net short positions, and the net short position continued to increase. Raw sugar prices rose 0.12 cents last week, or 0.94%.
In Thailand, as of April 1, it has crushed 1.2614 billion tons of sugar cane, producing 13.92 million tons of sugar, an increase of 13.8 million tons last year. The local area is expected to be squeezed in early April this year. The sugar cane crush will be from the same period last year. 13.49 billion tons fell to 130 million tons, and sugar production will also drop from 14.7 million tons last year to 14.3 million tons. In India, due to the continued low sugar prices, the sugar supply in India has accumulated a record $ 4.38 billion in sugar cane. The loss of farmers has reached the highest level in history. The domestic sugar factory in India is already in a sustained loss. It is difficult for the government to continue to meet the funding requirements of both sugar factories and farmers. Brazil has an advisory agency expecting 2019/ The 2020 crop season sugar production was 28.5 million tons, up 2 million tons from the previous estimate.
Jinrui Futures said that the contradiction of raw sugar is still a short-term serious surplus, and it is expected that there will be a high gap in the next crop season.
After the domestic white sugar futures fell slightly at the beginning of last week, it quickly rose in the second half of the week, and rose by 187 yuan/ton, or 3.69%. Domestic imports of sugar in February were 156,569,500 tons, a decrease of 117,634.22 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 88.31%, a decrease of 32.41% compared with the same period of last year. Last week, domestic white sugar futures were outstanding under the impetus of funds. Spot traders also raised their prices sharply under the mentality of buying up and not buying down. The daily turnover of mainstream enterprises in Yunnan reached 7,000-10,000 tons. Although the current market supply pressure is still large, and there is still a certain time interval from the release of terminal demand, the information obtained from the traders is that the terminal is worried that the price will continue to rise and is actively preparing for the stock. Some market participants believe that the current market is overdraft. Summer spending season.
According to the analysis of Jinrui Futures Research Report, the current market bullish news is released centrally, and the brokerages are sung more, and the market's short-term uptrend momentum has not stopped. From a fundamental point of view, India's current capital situation has a high probability of causing a decline in sugarcane planting in the new season, and news of reduced planting area has been reported in the EU. Although some institutions believe that Brazil will increase production, it is inferred that it is based on the ratio of sugar to alcohol. Adjustments, there will be greater uncertainty in the future. In the medium and long term, the long positions of SR1909 and SR2001 can be increased. It is expected that the domestic white sugar futures price will be in a strong oscillation pattern in the future.
Future sugar prices are expected to strengthen
For the sugar market, Jinrui Futures believes that the medium and short period maintains a strong pattern of narrow oscillations. There are many uncertainties in the future, and domestic policies are unclear. The data of Brazil and India cannot be determined, and the price of sugar will remain oscillating. However, from a long-term perspective, the current price is at a lower level, and the future is expected to strengthen. This is mainly due to the expected production cuts in India and Thailand in the 2019/2020 crop season. At that time, the simultaneous reduction of production by many major producing countries will likely lead the global sugar market from surplus. Formally brought into the shortage cycle.
According to CITIC Futures' analysis, there are more policy disturbances in the near future, and the uncertainty of the policy still exists. For example, import policies, direct subsidies and dumping are still expected. Aside from the policy factors, the contradiction between supply and demand of sugar fundamentals is not prominent. In terms of external disk, the raw sugar may have bottomed out, but in the medium term, it is still in a low-level oscillation and is in a strong position. Currently, there is no profit for additional imports. The internal and external upside down has been going on for a long time. In Brazil, the amount of sugar produced is expected to increase at the beginning of the new crop season; India's production is progressing faster, production is higher than expected, but attention should be paid to India's exports; Thailand's sugar production is still increasing year-on-year. There is little contradiction between domestic sugar supply and demand during the year. If the policy deviation is not too great in the later period, the bottom of Zheng sugar has already appeared. Zheng sugar is expected to rebound at the bottom, but the height is limited. On the operation, it is recommended that the unilateral still buys back, and the May-September contract is reversed, and the 5-month contract spread is 40, and the current spread is -35.
Cinda Futures Research reported that the rating agency ICRA estimated that India's sugar production in 319 was 30.7 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 31.5 million tons. The Brazilian sugar cane industry association crushed 1.59 million tons of sugar cane in the first half of March, compared with the same period of the previous year. Reduced by 53%. In 2019/2020, there will be a shortage of 1 million to 2 million tons of global sugar. Global sugar prices will change from bear market to bull market. Short-term sugar supply will increase consumption in the off-season, industrial stocks will increase seasonally, and sugar prices will be weaker and stronger. The white sugar warehouse receipt was cancelled at the end of November, so the warehouse receipt of the 1909 contract could not be thrown into the 2001 contract. It is recommended to do 9-1 reverse sets, the entrance price is 0-100 yuan/ton, the stop loss is 200 yuan/ton, and the target position is -300 yuan. /Ton.
Tianfeng Securitiesresearch reportIt is said that the 2018/2019 cropping season is the bottoming stage of sugar prices, and the continued low price will promote the decommissioning of the industry's production capacity. In the 2019/2020 crop season, domestic and international sugar prices are expected to usher in a reversal of resonance. The reverse price of sugar will bring about a fundamental improvement in the profitability of sugar companies. It is recommended that investors pay attention to COFCO Sugar, *ST South Sugar, and Guangdong and Guangxi.
In terms of sugar options, the Melya Futures research team analyzed that the SR909 option contract call option 5200 execution price is active, the volume of put options is concentrated at 4500, and the call and put options are concentrated at 5400 and 4800.SR909 options contracts respectively. The volume of the PCR is 0.59, and the PCR value of the position is 0.49. The current option market is emotionally neutral. The historical volatility of sugar on the 60th was near 14.61%, and the historical volatility on the 20th was 12.02%. At present, the volatility of white sugar has decreased. The implied volatility of the option option of SR909 option contract is 12.3%. The implied volatility is compared with The premium space for the historical volatility premium is squeezed out, and the short-term white sugar is stronger. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy. (Source: Futures Daily)