On the afternoon of May 14th, this year's temporary corn dumping, which has received much attention from the market, finally landed. On the same day, the National Grain Trade Center issued a notice saying that, according to the research decision of the relevant state departments, on May 23, 2019, the National Grain Bureau Coordination Center and the networked provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) national grain trading centers organized the national temporary reserve corn auction. transaction.
As China's corn market has entered a tight supply phase with insufficient annual output, although the annual incidence of swine fever in Africa has affected demand, the decreasing inventory still makes the market optimistic about the corn price, and the price of corn has started again. The steady and uplifting journey, when the temporary storage corn is turned out, what reaction will the market make? What is the difference between the corn dumping in the Year of the Pig and the previous years? What will the future effect on the domestic spot corn price and market supply and demand relationship?
In the Year of the Pig, the reserve price of corn is 200 yuan per ton.
The Futures Daily reporter learned from the National Grain Trade Center that the relevant departments are scheduled to start the national temporary reserve corn auction sales on May 23, with a total of 4 million tons, all of which will be produced in Northeast China in 2014. Among them, Jilin will produce 10,000 tons of corn in 2014. Heilongjiang produced 3.99 million tons of corn in 2014.
Judging from the auction time of this year's corn storage, it is one and a half months later than 2018, and more than half a month later than 2017. The number of planned first-time market entry is also nearly half that of 2018.
From the low price of the temporary storage corn auction that the market is very concerned about, it has increased by 200 yuan per ton compared with 2018. Among them, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia Tongliao and south of the region produced 1650 yuan per ton of corn in 2014 and 1700 yuan of corn in 2015. Jilin produced 1600 yuan of corn in 2014 and 16,50 yuan of corn in 2015. Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia Xing'an League and north In 2014, the region produced 1550 yuan of corn and 1600 yuan of corn in 2015.
Before the official release of the corn bank selling policy this year, the market has been discussing for several months, and the market generally expects the auction reserve price to increase, because the market demand is strong and the inventory is not much. Moreover, under the influence of this expectation, the spot market price of corn in recent days has risen steadily. Now, "boots landing", what is the reaction of the market?
From the trend of the price of Dalian corn and corn starch on the night of May 14, the price of both varieties was stable, and the price of the futures showed a slight increase. This indicates that the immigration of corn to the market did not have a strong impact on the market, and also indicated that the auction price was raised. And the future predictable transaction price, outbound cost, etc. are in line with market expectations. However, the market reaction is not dull. It does not mean that the temporary storage corn is a dispensable thing for the market, but a very important factor. What is the role of the future, the key depends on the urgency of the destocking process. As well as the recovery of corn demand in the domestic market in the future, "shun is not good, not expensive."
Heilongjiang corn trader Lao Li told the Futures Daily reporter that after the start of the corn auction at the temporary store, it means that the domestic corn price will enter the “pre-storage corn era”. Judging from the sales price released by the National Grain Exchange Center, although the price of corn to be put into the market is lower than the market price of some regions in the current region, plus the outbound fee and the premium, the price is basically the same as the market price. In the case of a transaction premium, etc., the transaction rate, etc. still need to wait and see.
According to the reporter of the Futures Daily, the announced transaction plan for the temporary storage corn is pre-announcement. The actual sales volume on the trading day is subject to the real-time trading announcement and transaction list of the National Grain Trading Center website. The margin is 110 yuan / ton (performance bond 100 yuan / ton, trading margin 10 yuan / ton). The deposit paid by the buyer may be converted into the purchase price after deducting the handling fee. From the perspective of trading qualifications, the buyer's enterprise shall, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Regulations on the Administration of Grain Circulation, establish a grain statistics ledger and fulfill its obligation to submit statistical reports on grain circulation. The enterprises directly affiliated to China Grain Reserve are not allowed to participate in the bidding (COFCO loan companies can participate in the transaction, including self-purchasing). From the definition of quality standards, specific grain quality indicators are implemented in accordance with relevant state regulations. In case of differences in water, impurities, etc., in accordance with the provisions of the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Food Administration, the Ministry of Finance, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the State on the Relevant Issues Concerning the Implementation of National Standards for Grain and Oil Quality (Guoliangfa  No. 178) Sections 4.2.1 and 4.2.2 are implemented. Members who intend to participate in the transaction should issue a "Popular Sales of Grain and Oil Samples" through the client of the National Grain Electronic Trading Platform to check the physical quality of the food in advance and determine whether to purchase. For those members who participate in the bidding after seeing the sample, if there is a big difference between the quality of the grain and the quality of the grain in the actual outbound process, they can apply to the provincial-level trading center for coordination and processing, and if necessary, entrust a qualified inspection and testing institution to re-apply. Inspection; for the results of the latest quality inspection reports such as the national policy food stock quantity and quality inspection, the quality of the quality inspection results shall prevail, and no re-inspection will be arranged. If the trading member does not look in the sample in advance and still participate in the bidding, it is regarded as the quality of the approved subject.
Immigration corn market impact forecast
In the opinion of the industry, the temporary storage corn will have the following four effects on the market after entering the market:
First, due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic situation, the current stock of pigs in China has a large decline, and the corn feed demand is insufficient. The temporary storage corn has a small negative effect in the short-term, but once the market demand recovers, the transaction rate and transaction price are estimated. Both will go up and will support the spot price of domestic corn.
Second, the current demand for deep processing industry in China's corn industry is stable. According to the 2018 year-end corn transaction rate and transaction price, the forecast of this year's temporary corn auction is not expected to be very cold, and the probability of low-cost resources is estimated. Lower.
Third, with the gradual disappearance of the corn stocks in the temporary storage, it may become the trigger for the long-term rise of domestic corn prices, while excluding a large number of imported substitutes into the domestic market.
Fourth, on the afternoon of May 14, the National Grain Exchange Center also released the auction price of wheat and rice. The price of wheat was 2,290 yuan per ton, which seems to be 60 yuan lower than the previous period. In the current situation of large domestic wheat and rice stocks, these two varieties may have a certain substitution effect on corn in the field of feed ingredients.
(Article source: Futures Daily)