On Thursday, rebar futures fluctuated and closed, but did not break out of the downtrend channel since November. Analysts pointed out that this year's "Golden September and Silver 10" performance is not good, it is expected that the steel market is difficult to form a clear long market in the short term.
Weak spot price
This year, the steel market “Golden September and Silver 10” has a poor quality and oligopolistic trading. The steel price in November has become more and more obvious. At present, the overall price of the national plate market is in a narrow and weak state.
“The recent spot market transactions are not good, the market offer is subject to weak trading, and the mainstream maintains a stable and weak state. The futures market is in a narrow range of shocks, and the spot price is limited.” Jinlian SteelAnalystXu Xiaoqing told the China Securities Journal reporter.
As of November 7, according to the monitoring data of Jinlianchuang, the average price of the mid-board in 23 major cities nationwide is 4,265 yuan / ton, down 94 yuan / ton from the average price of the same month last month.
Recently, China Iron and Steel Industry Association released the economic operation of the steel industry in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, the nation's symbiosis produced iron, crude steel and steel were 579 million tons, 699 million tons and 821 million tons, respectively, up 1.19%, 6.07% and 7.21%. Xu Xiaoqing analyzed that the growth of crude steel output this year has supplemented the withdrawal of “strip steel” from the market space, and it is the growth of high-quality production capacity to replace backward production capacity.
In terms of supply, entering November, the traditional heating season in the north began, the demand for coal increased significantly, and the comprehensive treatment of atmospheric atmosphere in autumn and winter will also be comprehensively promoted. In order to maintain normal heating and respond to national environmental protection requirements, the operating rate of steel mills is bound to increase. There will be a decline in steel production in the later period, and the stock of society and steel mills will also decline.
On the demand side, the first three quarters,GDP65.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, the growth rate remained in a reasonable range, providing a stable market demand for the steel industry. However, the cold climate has a great impact on the outdoor construction in winter. Some projects will be shut down one after another, and the demand side may be reduced by the seasonal influence.
Looking for steel net related data shows that the current steel social inventory has maintained a relatively rapid decline, but the pressure on the factory is gradually emerging. Under the background of slower implementation of limited production and weaker speculative demand of traders, inventory pressure continues to accumulate at the steel mills.
Short-term shock pattern is difficult to change
"At present, the long and short game will continue, and most businesses are more cautious." Xu Xiaoqing explained that due to the poor performance of this year's "Golden September and Silver 10", the enthusiasm of business operations has been hit hard. The market is not optimistic about the market outlook, mainly due to the coming of winter, the limited production of steel mills, the increase of production costs, the increase in the cost of goods for merchants, and the demand in most northern regions will be reduced, and the shipment will also be affected. influences. On the whole, it is expected that the short-term market in November will continue to be in a downward trend. “In the short term, there is no obvious positive boost in the market. Most of the business operations are still empty, and the market mentality is slightly exhausted. The market outlook is still likely to continue to be weaker.”
There is a futures analysis. In November, the northern construction sites began to stop working. Under the stimulation of high profits, the number of Northwood South Transportation may increase this year, and the steel price will rise, but the current thread basis Large, the downside of the price is limited, driving neutral, it is expected that steel prices will fluctuate in the short term.
(Article source: China Securities Journal)