After a few days of silence, the glass futures broke down on November 8th, and the main contract of 1901 hit a new low of 1,273 yuan/ton in the past seven months. Analysts said that there has been no obvious positive effect on the supply side of the glass industry in the near future. After the traditional peak season, the demand in the northern region has dropped sharply, and the cumulative rhythm of the inventory will accelerate. Therefore, the manufacturers' quotations have been lowered, and the glass futures price still has room to fall.
The futures price increase position is down
Yesterday, the glass futures Masukura down, the main 1901 contract intraday low to 1273 yuan / ton, hit a new low since April 9, closed at 1298 yuan / ton, down 18 yuan or 1.37%, the contract volume increased 240,000 hands to With 362,000 hands, the number of positions increased by 71,572 hands to 252,000 hands.
"From the perspective of the glass futures commodity curve, the discount structure continues, and the contract spread of 1901-1905 has risen to the same high level in the past four years, indicating that the market is more pessimistic about the long-term supply and demand of glass." Founder's medium-term futuresAnalystTang Binghua said that the price of glass futures fell yesterday, which is more due to the fact that there has been no obvious positive effect on the supply side of the industry since November. Different from the 9 production lines that Shahe stopped production in November 2017, during the heating season of this year's heating season, no matter whether it is the Shahe area or the East China region that is newly included in the restricted production range, there is no news of glass discontinuation. However, the pace of production of cold repairs during the same period has not stopped, the industry supply capacity has increased by 3,211 tons / day, compared with last year's production suspension, it is expected that this data will be greatly expanded in the later period, supply pressure will be significantly improved.
In terms of spot, China's glass composite index on the 8th was 1148.08 points, down 0.99 points from the previous month; China's glass price index was 1176.34 points, down 1.05 points from the previous month; China's glass confidence index was 1035.02 points, down 0.75 points from the previous month.
The demand side of the glass is still sluggish. According to Tang Binghua, after the traditional peak season, the deep processing enterprises in the north have stopped working in advance. Due to the low growth rate of real estate completion, the demand for glass has dropped by a large margin year-on-year. The middle and lower reaches are more cautious about the original film purchase, and the production enterprises are speeding up the storage. Have to cut prices many times. At present, although the inventory of manufacturers in major regions has dropped significantly compared with the National Day, but with the narrowing of regional spreads and the increase in export pressure, it is expected that the warehouse will slow down again.
“Soda ash and natural gas prices continue to rise, which also makes the cost of production enterprises continue to increase. In the case of falling prices of glass, the profit of glass production is greatly reduced. However, in the case of falling demand, the cost transfer is difficult, and the profit narrowing of the industry is already At the same time, because the glass industry is a heavy asset industry, in recent years, the cost of resumption of production has increased significantly due to environmental protection, and the willingness to stop production is not high. Therefore, it is difficult for the short-term profit to fall back or lose money to cause a significant fall in the supply side.” Tang Binghua said .
For the market outlook, Tang Binghua said that in the absence of new stimulus on the real estate side, and the environmental protection and limited production can not have a significant impact on the overall supply of the glass industry, the duration of the contradiction between supply and demand in the glass industry is still difficult to determine, and the initiative to go to the warehouse will continue. So the price is still not the end.
The chemical group of Ruida Futures Research Institute said that in the short term, glass prices will continue to fluctuate. On the technical side, the glass futures 1901 contract faces a pressure of 1340 yuan / ton.
(Article source: China Securities Journal)