Since the beginning of this week, asphalt futures have rebounded. As of yesterday's close, the main 1812 contract of asphalt futures closed at 3,466 yuan / ton, up 2.97%. From October 10 to November 2, the contract fell by about 14%. Analysts pointed out that the previous internationalOil priceThe big drop has brought down the asphalt futures price. At present, the asphalt futures are deeper than the spot discount, and there is a rebound demand for the basis repair in the short term.
Deep water maintenance
Last week, international oil prices fell sharply, and asphalt futures followed the decline, forming a discount pattern for futures prices in the face of spot prices.
As of now, the spot price of asphalt is still high. Founder's medium-term futures Xiaoxiaoying and Zhang Zice said that the overall demand in the Yangtze River Delta region is generally low, but the inventory has risen slightly, but it is still at a low level. It is expected that some refineries will stop production and repair at the end of the month, and then consume inventory. Road construction in the northeast region has basically ended, road demand has continued to shrink, and refinery price cuts have not significantly boosted shipments, and individual refineries will turn to coking production. Demand in the Shandong region has declined, and traders have procured on demand. Demand in the southwestern region has not improved significantly, and asphalt stocks have been consumed more slowly.
"This year's peak season of asphalt consumption has ended. Due to the cold weather in the northern region, the construction progress is now coming to an end. In the southern market, due to insufficient funds and rising raw material prices, road construction progress is limited. The recent downstream demand is not as strong as expected." Guoxin FuturesAnalystWu Mengyu and Fan Chunhua said that the current refinery profit is good, and the operating rate is still upward trend. However, the demand season is over, and the inventory is under pressure. This year's price is high or affects the demand for winter storage.
Short-term rebound demand
From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, the national refinery operating rate has remained basically the same in the past week. Except for the rebound in operating rates in North China, the operating rate in Shandong has declined, while other regions have remained flat. “Although the price difference between coking material and asphalt is large, and the refinery intends to control the level of asphalt stocks, it is expected that the operating rate of asphalt in the later refinery is expected to decline.” SDIC Anxin Futures Research said, “In terms of demand, with the temperature drop, the northern region The road construction decreased, the demand for asphalt decreased, and some refineries began to turn to coke. In addition, the demand for Shandong in the early stage has also declined, and the Shandong refinery has begun to cut prices. The demand in the south is still flat, and the refinery shipments have not improved. Regional demand is also more general."
Looking ahead to the market, SDIC Anxin Futures Research said that due to the sharp drop in international oil prices, the current disk is oversold. Therefore, compared with the spot, there is already a certain margin in the disk. If the international oil price can be stabilized in the later period, then the asphalt futures market is expected to break out of a rebound in the correction of the basis, and the current fund level bears signs of profit taking, trading is light, which means that the probability of late rebound still exists.
"However, it should be emphasized that this repair market is only a rebound, not a reversal of the downtrend, because the current fundamentals have begun to weaken, although the future refinery operating rate is expected to decline, but the overall decline in demand The probability of continuing to accumulate is large, which means that if the post-repair of the futures can be repaired through the rebound, then it may be the time to go short again," the agency said.
(Article source: China Securities Journal)