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The steel mills will drop again! The snail rebounded to around 4,000. Steel prices continued to fall!

November 09, 2018 07:37
source: My steel net
edit:Eastern Fortune Network

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Summary
[The steel mills collectively drop again! The snail rebounded to around 4,000. Steel prices continued to fall! 】 Yesterday, domestic black commodity futures bottomed out, with iron ore thread leading up, coking coal closing up, hot coil coke closing down, trading volume, main contract significantly shifting position 05. Yesterday, Tangshan Pufang billet rose 10 yuan / ton, the factory reported 3,820 yuan / ton, affected by the wide fluctuation of steel throughout the day, Tangshan area storage spot all day 3840-3880 yuan / ton have transactions. (My steel net)

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Yesterday, domestic black commodity futures bottomed out, with iron ore thread leading up, coking coal closing up, hot coil coke closing down, and trading volume, the main contract was significantly shifted to 05. Yesterday, Tangshan Pufang billet rose 10 yuan / ton, the factory reported 3,820 yuan / ton, affected by the wide fluctuation of steel throughout the day, Tangshan area storage spot all day 3840-3880 yuan / ton have transactions.

From the perspective of the main contract, the RB1901 contract has rebounded. Spot market prices continued to fall, but social stocks released this week fell for the fifth consecutive week, while weekly production did not continue to rise, and market sentiment has picked up. Operational recommendations, 4020-3900 range high to buy low, stop loss 40 points. The I1901 contract pulled up late.Port spot enquiries are generally active, and most of them are still on the sidelines. The weak steel prices still affect market sentiment, but the midday price rebounds or boosts market confidence. Operational recommendations, short-term can buy low throws in the 530-510 range, stop loss 8 yuan / ton.

Yesterday, 12 steel mills released price adjustment information, and the price of steel was adjusted from -20 to 80 yuan.

  First, the steel spot

  Construction steel: YesterdayThe construction steel market price continued to adjust. The average price of rebar in major cities was 4642 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of regions, the East China market experienced a large decline, followed by North China and Northwest China, and slightly adjusted in South China, Central China, Northeast China and Southwest China. Specific to the market yesterday, the recent sluggish demand has made market participants more worried. The volatility of the snails has aggravated this psychology. Therefore, the price of many places has been adjusted sharply yesterday, but the transaction after adjustment is still not satisfactory.

Although the tail of the snail was rapidly pulled up to around 4,000, it did not substantially boost the spot. As far as the fundamental data is concerned, the output of construction steel has dropped significantly, but it is still at a high level. The inventory in the factory has increased. The social inventory has been affected by the low enthusiasm of traders. The overall demand is in the off-season.It can be seen that the contradiction of fundamentals has already appeared, and the adjustment of spot prices is inevitable. It is expected that the price of short-term construction steel will fluctuate.

  Hot rolled coil: YesterdayThe prices of hot rolled coils in major cities nationwide fell sharply. The average national price of 4.75 hot rolled coils was 4,081 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Recently, the black commodity futures market continued to weaken, the market mentality was poor, traders took the initiative to price, the mainstream market turnover of 3900-3940 yuan / ton, the current trader mentality is still based on shipments.

Yesterday morning trading was normal, the low position was still acceptable but the high position was basically no transaction. The market rebounded in the afternoon and the market mentality improved. The inquiry atmosphere was getting stronger, but it was still only temporarily stabilizing the price and could not support the spot price increase. In addition, yesterday's inventory data was released, the national hot-rolled inventory was 2,243,500 tons, down 163,300 tons from last week.This also verified that the national hot-rolling market is in a weak position, traders get less goods, basically in the situation of price cuts, short-term hot rolls will still maintain a weak situation.

  Cold rolled coil: YesterdayThe spot price of cold rolling in the whole country is mainly down. In terms of price, the average price of 1.0 cold rolling in the country was 4,729 yuan/ton, which was 32 yuan/ton lower than the previous working day. Yesterday, the spot price of cold rolling in many places in the country fell sharply. Due to the current poor overall performance of the market, coupled with the continuous decline in future futures prices, the pessimism in the spot market spread. Early trading merchants have cut prices and shipped, but the transaction is more general.

In addition, our network inventory data was released. 8 Japan Network monitored 23 cities inventories. This week, the cold rolling inventory was 1,154,500 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons from last week, a decrease of 70,700 tons from the previous month and an increase of 63,400 tons. Another 8 Japan network monitors 26 cities' inventories. This week's cold rolling inventory was 1,169,900 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons from last week, a decrease of 69,700 tons from the previous month and an increase of 62,300 tons.Overall, it is expected that the spot price of cold rolling will be weaker in the near future.

  Plate: YesterdayThe domestic plate market price continued to decline. The average price of the national 20mm board was 4278 yuan/ton, which was 17 yuan/ton lower than the average price on the 7th. In early trading, the black market futures fell and the billet price fell, and the market price fell slightly in the morning. However, the bearish sentiment in the market was high, the trading atmosphere was deserted, and the price was lowered again.

The market inventories fell slightly, but at a higher level, and the steel mill lock price was lowered, and the storage cost decreased. In summary, in the case of sluggish demand, the steel mill's production limit is less than expected, the inventory level is high, and the futures are weak. Under the influence of factors, market bearish sentiment dominates.It is expected that the plate market will continue to be in a weak position in the short term.

Second,Raw material spot

  Imported mine: YesterdayThe spot market activity is acceptable. The price of morning traders was basically stable compared with the 7th. The mainstream price of PB powder in Shandong port was 585 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of PB powder in Tangshan port was 595 yuan/ton, and the bargaining space of traders was around 2-3 yuan/ton.In terms of steel mills, the morning inquiry activity was generally active, and most of them were still on the sidelines. In the afternoon, the disk was up, the spot was more positive and the transaction was active.

  Coke: YesterdayThe domestic coke spot market held steady operation. After the three rounds of landfall in the previous period, the price of coke returned to the highest level in the year. The market mentality was slightly different. Some players were still happy to watch the rise in the market outlook;It is believed that the price has reached a relatively high level, and the increase is weak, and the subsequent holding may be relatively large.At present, the overall coke inventory in the mainstream market is still low, the sales of coke enterprises are smooth, the demand for downstream purchases is not reduced, the coke shipments are not met with resistance; the traders are cautious, the market participation in the intermediate links is reduced, the demand is concentrated to the terminals; the steel mills remain normal. Purchasing level, the overall supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the implementation of limited production in steel mills and coking in the subsequent heating season may determine the trend of coke prices.

  Scrap: YesterdayThe scrap market fell slightly, and steel mills with falling prices were concentrated in North China and Southwest China, with a drop of RMB 10-50/ton. The Mysteel scrap price index was 2616.7, down 0.08%. Affected by the continued decline in the price of finished products, the pessimistic sentiment in the scrap market has spread, and merchants have a strong willingness to ship, and steel mills actively replenish the warehouse. Yesterday, billet prices have picked up, boosting the scrap market, some traders are not optimistic in the short term, but long-term optimistic, coupled with the northern steel enterprises will have a certain demand for scrap steel in winter storage,Weakly finished products do not fall sharply, and there is limited space for scrap steel to fall. It is expected that the short-term scrap market will run weakly.

  Third, special steel spot

  Ute Steel: YesterdayThe price of Ute steel continued to fall slightly, with a drop of around RMB 20/ton. Nationally, 45#4435 yuan/ton fell 9 yuan/ton, 40Cr4660 yuan/ton fell 3 yuan/ton, 20CrMnTi4798 yuan/ton fell 9 yuan/ton, CrMo5125 yuan/ton fell 7 yuan/ton. At present, the total inventory of special steel products of the country's special steel mills is 862,800 tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons from last week, down by 1.19% from the previous year, an increase of 111,200 tons from the same period of last year, up 14.8% year-on-year, and higher than the 2017 average by 49,500 tons. 6.09%, an increase of 0.01 million tons from the average of 2018. It is expected that the short-term Ute steel market will continue to decline slightly.

  Industrial wire: YesterdayThe prices of industrial wire rods in the country continued to fall. The national average prices of cold, brushed and hardwires fell by 10-13 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton and down 18 yuan/ton respectively from the previous trading day. The average price is 4720-4751 yuan / ton, the average price of drawing is 4470 yuan / ton, and the average price of hard wire is 4654 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, the current total number of industrial wire rods is 407,800 tons, which is a decrease of 22,600 tons from the same period last week, a decrease of 5.24%. Among them: cold water is 106,600 tons, which is 1.2 million tons less than the same period last week, a decrease of 10.96%; drawing 276,300 tons, which is 0.81 million tons less than last week's statistics, a decrease of 2.83%; hard line is 29,900 tons. Last week, the same caliber statistics decreased by 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 6.27%.

  Fourth, the steel market forecast

Yesterday, the black futures oscillated weakly, in which the thermal coal bottomed out, paying attention to the support of 615 below; the rebar exploration rebounded, the range operation; the double focus rebounded, paying attention to the moving average pressure; the iron ore tail rose, the market still There are iterations.

In terms of spot prices, the recent black commodity futures market continued to weaken, and the market mentality was poor. At present, traders actively lowered the offer, and the operation was still based on shipments. In the afternoon, as the market rebounded, the market sentiment improved, the billet price rose slightly, and the price stopped falling.At present, traders are less motivated to get goods, and the overall market demand is in the off-season. Our network statistics on steel social stocks are still declining this week, but steel mills' inventories have increased by 97,300 tons. On the whole, it is expected that domestic steel prices will continue to fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

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Extended reading>>>

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  What is the impact of the limited production of autumn and winter in Tangshan on the output of hot coil mills?

  Steel industry: the fund's position in the third quarter increased as scheduled, the fourth quarter or continue to maintain an upward trend

(Article source: My steel network)

                (Editor: DF318)

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