Thursday (January 10th) report, the NetherlandsbankSenior economist Bill Diviney pointed out that Atlanta Fed President Bostik today pointed out that the Fed's next move to raise interest rates or cut interest rates will be driven by data.
Although this expression seems to dampen the dollar, it is believed that this only emphasizes the Fed’scurrencyPolicy will be more dependent on the wording of the data.
In a separate speech by Bostik on Monday, he noticed that he still expects to raise interest rates more than once in 2019. Fundamentally, the expected dot matrix may still show 1 or 2 rate hikes in 2019, tightening monetary policy. The view is expected to remain within the Fed.
For the Fed, the current position will be turned to loose, or the interest rate cut, the threshold will be very high.
Here, the entry of the US into economic recession will be a significant risk. In the macro forecast for 2020, such risks are considered unlikely.
Although the investment cycle is likely to hit the peak, corporate debt is still risky, for example, private consumption is still stable, and government spending is expected to fall sharply in 2019. These factors are expected to make economic growth in 2019 still higher than the trend level, offsetting the effects of manufacturing and investment softening in the next few years.
(Article source: FX168)