Market Overview: On Thursday (March 14), the European market hit a long-term counterattack, with the highest attack to 97.82, the first rise since the five trading days, the euro, the pound and other G10currencyThe whole line fell, and the pound volatility was the most dramatic. In addition, gold and silver are also all falling...
Regarding the US dollar: From a technical point of view, the upward resistance of the US dollar is concerned with the 96.90-97 range. After the break, it is expected to test the March 7 high near the 97.70 line. The lower support will focus on the 96.50-96.30 range. 96 mark.
In the news, the number of US jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and workers became scarcer, suggesting that the job market began to slow down, but may not reach the level of employment growth in February.
Although the economic data suggests that the job market and growth momentum are stable, the relevant data indicates that the US inflation upward trend is slowing down, which also makes the market further expect the Fed to maintain a patient interest rate hike attitude.
About the pound: overnight, after the pound rose sharply, today's pound investors did not stop, but also fell more than 100 points, the lowest 1.3206, almost fell below 1.32, the highest overnight 1.3382, recorded the highest level since June last year.
According to reports, the British government is in trouble and the parliament is in a deadlock. Members will vote on Thursday to decide whether to postpone the Brexit. They have previously rejected the situation of no agreement to leave the EU.
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond reiterated his call for parliamentarians to have the opportunity to choose the way forward. Hammond continued to be intensively interviewed by the media. He told the media that "confirmed" lawmakers will vote to postpone the Brexit today.
Jingyi Pan, strategist at IG Asia Pte in Singapore, said that the UK seems to be unable to reach an agreement on the Brexit agreement, and that uncertainty will continue to undermine the popularity of the pound. This year, the volatility of the pound is the highest among the G-10 currencies.
“Without a clear resolution, the closer to the Brexit deadline, the more nervous the market will be,” she said in Singapore. "You will only see a further increase in short positions."
At the time of the US dollar counterattack, today's spot gold suffered a sharp sell-off, with a minimum of $1,129.50 per ounce, a drop of more than $15, up to $18... Spot silver fell by more than 2% to a minimum of $15.10 per ounce.
(Spot gold 30 minutes chart source: FX168 financial network)
Technically, from the 1 hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped from the overbought area and formed a lower high point, which is good for gold shorts.
At the same time, from the gold 4 hour chart, the 100-period moving average crossed the 200-week moving average, which has formed a negative for the gold price, while the gold price blocked by the 200-period moving average further strengthened the bearish view.
FxstreetAnalystHaresh Menghani said,The weaker gold was triggered by a sharp rebound in US bond yields. Subsequently, the rebound in demand for the US dollar put additional downward pressure on gold, and as gold fell below the psychological threshold of $1,300, it further exacerbated the bearish pressure and was released today by the US. Economic data has also failed to provide a respite for the gold bulls.
With today's plunge, gold almost wiped out the gains in the week, and the subsequent downtrend may cause it to fall below the support of $1290. If it falls below $1,290, it may further accelerate the decline to the $1,286-85 area; in the upside, the first resistance is $1,297. If it breaks, it may pull the gold back and test the $1,309-10 area.
Day focus, weather vane:
US initial jobless claims last week, US new home sales
British parliament voted to postpone Brexit
Analysis of major currency trends:
Euro: The euro/dollar continued to fall during the European market on Thursday. Technically, the EUR/USD is currently showing a break below the 1.1300 level, but it is likely to break even before the effective support of the Bollinger Band mid-rail and the uptrend line support 1.1285. Once the expectations are met, the upside target looks at levels of 1.1325 and 1.1350. However, if it falls below 1.1285 effectively, it may further weaken to the level of 1.1270 and 1.1250.
Sterling: GBP/USD fell sharply in intraday trading on Thursday. Technically, the GBP/USD 4-hour chart has fluctuated quite a bit in recent days; the daily chart has not effectively broken the resistance around 1.3300, but as long as it remains above the trend line since January 2, the upward trend is intact.
JPY: USD/JPY rebounded moderately in the European market on Thursday. Technically, USD/JPY broke the short-term resistance at 111.50, and it is likely to continue to rise further in the short-term. It is now trending to do more dips above 111.60, which is in line with the expected initial target of 112.00. Once broken, it may point further to 112.30. However, if the short-term decline falls below 111.50, it may enter the shock zone again, down or pointing to 111.00.
(Article source: FX168)