Recently,World Gold CouncilReleased global goldETFThe latest data on demand and positions. In February 2019, after four consecutive months of inflows, the total gold holdings of global gold ETFs and similar products decreased by 33 tons to 2,479 tons, equivalent to an outflow of $1.3 billion. The global ETF's global managed asset size (AUM) contracted by 2% during the month, with a balance of $105 billion. However, thanks to the strong inflow in January, the net flow of global gold ETFs remained positive this year (+1.7 billion US dollars, +2%).
GlobalCash flowThe main driving force comes from North America. As the most liquid group among US gold ETF holders, trend investors are gaining profits. On the other hand, we see that funds continue to flow into low-cost gold ETFs. We believe that one of the reasons is strategic allocation. Asian goldfundIt also experienced a 5% outflow, while positions in Europe and elsewhere remained unchanged. In addition, we also found that it may be driven by Brexit, the funds are still flocking to the UK's gold ETF, and its current total of 506 tons of positions has reached a record high.
InGlobal stock marketUnder the continuous upward trend, the gold ETF showed a net outflow. This month, the stock market rose by 2%. The global stock market has climbed 8% in the first two months of this year, making it the strongest start in 30 years. However, market uncertainty is still worrying: the uncertainty of Brexit, the economic slowdown, and high stock market valuations are both plaguing investors. At the same time, the Fed has indicated that it will adopt a “wait and see” attitude, which may affect other central banks to tightencurrencyThe speed of the policy. The US dollar monetary policy and its trend will be the main drivers of gold prices this year and are expected to support gold investment (see our Outlook 2019: Global Economic Trends and Their Impact on Gold).
In February, the gold trading volume fell by 5% from the 2018 average, with an average daily turnover of $104 billion. Although the sentiment and position of COMEX futures investors began to rebound from the low point, as gold prices rose in the first half of this month, they were consistently lower than the historical average (Note: due to the US government's tentative operation, data release is still delayed Two weeks).
Regional flow change
North America: Gold ETF reduced 29 tons (the position amount decreased by 1.2 billion US dollars, asset management scale decreased by 2.3%);
In Europe: Although the gold ETF's position has dropped slightly by 0.3 tons, the funds are still inflow (+0.37 billion US dollars, +0.1%);
Asian region: lighten up 3 tons ($1.447 billion, -4.6%);
Other regions: Positions were basically flat, slightly reduced by 0.1 tons (-$0.025 billion, -0.2%)
Fund flow changes
North America: SPDR? Gold Shares became the world's largest gold ETF with a capital outflow of 40 tons ($1.7 billion, -4.8%), while iShares Gold Trust increased its holdings by 7 tons (+2.99 billion, -2.4%), followed by SPDR? Gold MiniShares Masukura 3 tons ($12.22 million, +24%);
Europe: In the leading position of capital inflows, ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Gold and Invesco Physical Gold, both positions increased by 2 tons, equivalent to about $90 million, and the UK's ETFS Physical Gold reduced by 3 tons (-$106 million). -1.5%);
Asia: In the Chinese market, the Huaan Gold ETF position fell by 3 tons (-$121 million, -10%).
Long-term trend change
The outflow of funds in February blocked the continuous Masukura trend that began in the third quarter of 2018; however, the total flow in 2019 remained positive, with a cumulative increase of 39 tons (+1.7 billion US dollars, +2%);
The total position of 2,479 tons is still close to the highest level in the beginning of 2013, when the price of gold was 23% higher than the current level;
In the past seven months, the total cost of low-cost gold ETFs has increased by 20 tons (about 800 million US dollars), which means that its scale has increased by 67%.
(Article source: World Gold Council)