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How long can the Vietnamese demographic dividend stand in the air? 29 years old, 8.6%, 500 billion 3 data reveals Vietnam investment opportunities

April 15, 2019 11:11
Author: Wei Shuguang
source: Brokerage China

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From now on,BrokerChina launched a series of surveys on the “Nuggets Vietnam Market” series, covering the trend of manufacturing companies moving south, the layout of Chinese-funded financial institutions, and the Vietnamese stock market.real estateMarket status and so on.

In recent years, Vietnam, with its rapid economic growth, has become another hot spot for Chinese companies to invest overseas. What is the investment environment in Vietnam? Can local stocks and houses in Vietnam be fired?

  With many questions, in early April, Securities Times and Securities China three senior reporters went to Vietnam, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Haiphong, Haiyang and Longan provinces, Chinese listed companies, Vietnamese factories, state-owned big banks, Vietnamese branches, Chinese-funded securities companies, Real estate marketResearchTo find the answer.

  “How long can Vietnam’s demographic dividends last?"This is the question that was asked the most after returning to China.I believe this is also the topic of concern for every investor.

  No one knows the exact answer to this question, but during the week, Vietnam visited 5 places, 29.6%, 500 billion. These three figures left a deep impression on me and I am right to answer this question.

  The average age is 29 years old. "I was hit by my youth."

One of China’s biggest advantages, the “demographic dividend”, has gradually drifted away, and the average age of the labor force has approached 40 years. The “Bypass” global enterprises have taken a fancy to Vietnam’s “demographic dividend”. The current 93 million Vietnamese population is only 29 years old, and 70% of the population is under 35 years old.

Walking in the streets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, there are oceans of young people and oceans of motorcycles. Young is the biggest capital, and it is no wonder that the Vietnamese people’s confidence index on the country’s economic development continues to remain high. But in real contact, the lives of young Vietnamese people are also like China's demographic dividend period.

In Hanoi, which is in the process of rapid industrialization, the resident population has reached 13 million, and young people are pouring into big cities to find work opportunities.House priceAnd rents are soaring. “The rent of a house of about 40 square meters in the urban area of ​​Hanoi is generally around 1300-1800 yuan, and the price is relatively high.” When an intermediary company in Vietnam introduced the situation, it sounded plain at first, but when it was known that the average capital of Hanoi, Vietnam When the monthly salary is less than 2,000 yuan, I feel that the rent is very expensive.

The most common top snack on the streets of Vietnam - the Vietnamese bachelor "banh my", the price is generally 20-30k Vietnamese dong, equivalent to the RMB is also 7-10 yuan, and Xi'an meat folder is almost the same price. A bowl of plain broth beef noodle, the price is generally 50-90K VND, equivalent to 15-28 yuan, almost the same as domestic prices.

In terms of home purchases, the average house price in Hanoi is now 10,000 yuan / ping, and the average house price in Ho Chi Minh City is around 11,000 yuan / ping. In the big cities of these two million-level population, for most Vietnamese young people who just need to buy a house, the average monthly salary is less than 2,000 yuan, and the minimum monthly income standard is 1237 yuan, it is still difficult to match 10000. Yuan/flat price, and Vietnamese mortgageinterest rateIt is too high. More young people who are willing to buy a house are borrowing from the "six pockets" and tend to buy the house in full.

In terms of travel, Vietnam's public infrastructure is weak, and young people prefer to commute by motorcycle. The purchase price of a motorcycle is basically between 1.1 and 15,000 yuan. After listening to the introduction of local friends, let me look at the motorcycles on the street. After asking, I know that Vietnamese motorcycles are mainly imported, and the tariff is as high as 70%. Similarly, Vietnam’s cars are mainly imported, and tariffs are as high as 50%.

After reading this, I suddenly feel that the young people in Vietnam are basically "moonlight family". Under the soaring price, there is really not much money left. The difference is that young people in Vietnam do not have high mortgages for Chinese young people. After the burning feeling. During the visit, many Chinese-owned enterprises also generally predicted that Vietnam’s “demographic dividend” may disappear faster, and labor costs are estimated to be the fastest within seven years, which will be the same as in China.

One-year large depositinterest rate8.6%, chances are more than money here

  Well, no mistakes, no mistakes. When entering the four major statesbankWhen one of the Vietnam Investment Development Banks saw this one-year large deposit and deposit interest rate, they couldn’t help but look at it a bit. The deposit rate was 8.6%.

Vietnam also has four major state-owned banks - Vietnam Investment Development Bank (BIDV), Vietnam Foreign Trade Commercial Bank (VIETCOMBANK), VietnamICBC(VIETINBANK) and the Vietnam Agricultural and Rural Development Bank (AGRIBANK). These four major lines occupy the whole country.CreditAbout 50% of the scale, the degree of centralized monopoly is higher.

According to statistics, the maximum interest rate of long-term deposits of Vietnamese banks over 12 months is 8.6% to 8.7%. This is already the local bank's two-year increase in deposit rates, and all banks are actively engaged in new bargaining activities. Customers with a term deposit of 10 million VND (about 3,300 yuan) will receive gifts, and may also receive gifts. Send a red envelope.

In Ho Chi Minh CityFinancial streetAfter reading this, I feel like every other day. At present, the one-year large deposit certificates of domestic banks are basically around 2%, and the one-year deposit interest rate of banks is 1.5%. However, China was also widened in the same year. It was between 1992 and 1996. Under the investment frenzy brought about by the early days of reform and opening up, the deposit interest rate remained above 8%. It was also popular for a long time to deposit red packets, send rice and Send a motorcycle and so on.

Of course, today's Vietnam has realized interest rate liberalization earlier. In March 2017, the Central Bank of Vietnam abolished the quota requirement that the loan interest rate stipulated in the 2015 Civil Law should not exceed 20%. The bank loan interest rate is based entirely on the agreement between the credit institution and the customer. price. The regulation of the Central Bank of Vietnam is mainly carried out through the refinancing rate and the discount rate. The current refinancing rate is 6.25% and the discount rate is 4.25%.

Under the high cost of deposits, Vietnam’s loan interest rate is also higher. In the formal banking sector, the average loan interest rate of Vietnamese residents' mortgage loans is 10-11.5%, while other medium and long-term loan interest rates reach 11-13%. However, short-term loans and consumer loans, the funding channels are diversified, and the interest rate is as high as 15-20%.

The Vietnamese driver of the same company said that"Even if the loan interest rate, the formal bank's mortgage is not easy to get down, you need to send a red envelope to the bank mortgage staff, the actual cost is also more than 12%.Therefore, the average Vietnamese is not willing to borrow money to buy a house, and is more inclined to buy a house in full.

It is also often said in economics that the interest rate of a country is often directly related to the speed of its economic development. High interest rates often mean that there are many market opportunities. Such high interest rates are comparable to the early days of China's reform and opening up. From this perspective, Vietnamese residents' savings are still very insufficient, and because Vietnam implements a zero-interest rate policy for US dollar deposits, it makes the VND deposit interest rate attractive.

500 billion US dollars, Vietnamimport and exportTrade is arrogant

Walking on the streets of Vietnam, the 4G signal is very smooth, the mobile phone penetration rate is very high, and occasionally one or two newspapers and magazines can be seen. Buying a copy and looking back, the heavy news in the article is that in the first quarter of 2019, the import and export value of Vietnamese goods exceeded 100 billion US dollars. In the first quarter of the same period, the total import and export of Chinese goods was US$1 trillion.

The scale must not be compared with China, but Vietnam has already led the pace. Vietnam’s export growth in the first quarter reached 14%, compared with 6.7% in China. This growth rate basically continued the rapid growth of Vietnam's exports in 2018. The export growth rate was 13.3% in 2018. This rapid growth rate has amazed the world.

For a long time, in 2007, Vietnam’s import and export volume exceeded 100 billion US dollars for the first time. In 2011, it exceeded 200 billion US dollars. In 2015, it reached 300 billion US dollars. In 2017, it reached 400 billion US dollars. In 2018, it reached 488.1 billion US dollars. In 2019, it is bound to be bound. Breaking through 500 billion US dollars.

It is clear that the growth rate of Vietnam’s import and export is accelerating, especially exports. Behind this is the swarming foreign capital. 70% of Vietnam's exports are driven by foreign capital. Foreign investment growth and export growth are synchronized. According to the statistics of the Foreign Investment Bureau of Vietnam's Ministry of Planning and Investment, Vietnam's foreign investment in the first quarter of 2019 reached US$10.8 billion, a significant increase of 86.2% year-on-year, a record high in the same period in three years, which will further strengthen the development potential of Vietnam's export-oriented economy. In terms of commodities with large export growth, they are mobile phones and parts, textiles, computers, electronic products and parts, furniture, transportation tools and accessories. Many of these products have a high degree of overlap with Chinese exports.

All of this is like the way China just joined the WTO. However, Vietnam also has the characteristics of Vietnam, just like "Vietnamese Bars", unlike the meat folder, the bread is wrapped outside, more western, more international. It is important that the bonus can be eaten for a long time, but everything will pass. What is more important is that after the bonus is finished, it is the key to the physical fitness to stand on both ends of the smile curve. Otherwise, without research and development capabilities and deep market capabilities, you can only act as agents or OEMs, earning a little hard money. Once the demographic dividend disappears, the capital will still fly away like migratory birds.

(Article source: brokerage China)

                (Editor: DF381)

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