The US retail sales rate, known as “terrorist data”, recorded a monthly rate of -0.2% in April, with an expected 0.2% and a previous value of 1.6%. At the same time, the United States May New York Fed manufacturing index performed well. After the data was released, the US dollar index and international gold and silver did not fluctuate.
Beijing time on Wednesday (May 15th) at 20:30,The monthly retail sales rate in the United States, which is known as "terror data", was -0.2%, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was revised from 1.6% to 1.7%.US core retail sales in April recorded a monthly rate of 0.1%, the previous value was revised from 1.2% to 1.3%, and the forecast is 0.7%.
After the data was released, the US dollar index, international gold and silver fluctuations were not large, and the decline in US stock futures expanded. The dollar rose against the Canadian dollar by about 20 points in the short term.
Recently, the price of gold has picked up, and the horror data released tonight is good, but it still can't be attacked in the face of the thousand-three mark. From a technical point of view, the pivot point is 1297.7 according to the daily line, and the intraday resistance can focus on 1301.8, 1307.3, and 1311.4. The intraday support can focus on 1292.3, 1288.2, and 1282.7.
At the same time, the United States May New York Fed manufacturing index recorded 17.8, higher than the previous value of 10.1 and the expected value of 8.5, hit a six-month high; Canada's April CPI monthly rate recorded 0.4%, expected 0.4%, before The value is 0.7%.
Kathy Lien, managing director of BK Asset Management's foreign exchange strategy, believes that the April retail sales data does not accurately reflect future demand growth. Because the current US stocks are in the downside and the international turmoil is intensifying, consumers may be more willing to choose to spend in the next few months.
Kay's macro US analyst Andrew Hunter said that US retail sales data in April was lower than expected or affected by the decline in sales of auto dealers and parts. As the fiscal stimulus effect of last year has gradually subsided and borrowing costs have risen, GDP growth in the second half of this year may be dragged down.
Analysts said that consumption accounts for about 70% of US GDP, and the decline in retail sales monthly rate indicates a depressed future inflation rate. Considering that the previously published CPI data is still in the doldrums, the weak retail sales data may further strengthen the market's interest rate cut expectations for the Fed.
According to CME "Federal Watch", federal funds futures suggest that traders believe that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September rose from 46% last Tuesday to 56%; the probability of interest rate cuts in December rose from 70% last Tuesday to about 75%.
(Article source: Golden Ten data)