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Concerned about Australian employment data, weak performance will further drag down the Australian dollar

May 16, 2019 00:15
source: Chart home

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Summary
[Following the weak performance of Australian employment data will further drag down the Australian dollar] Due to weak consumer growth and adverse trade news, the Australian dollar was under pressure before the release of wage data this morning, only 27 basis points higher than the 0.69 mark, and to keep this At one level, the Australian employment data that needs to be announced tomorrow is strong. (chart home)


K picture audusd_0

Due to weak consumption increaseLong andUnfavorable news on the trade, the Australian dollar was under pressure before the release of wage data this morning, only 27 basis points higher than the 0.69 mark, and to maintain this level, the Australian employment data that needs to be announced tomorrow is strong.

  Australia's first-quarter salary price index rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, slightly lower than the expected 0.6%, while the year-on-year growth of 2.3% was in line with expectations and was also unchanged from the previous value.Among them, the transportation, warehousing, education and training industries saw the highest increase (0.7%), while the other seven sub-sectors rose only 0.2%. ,

The Australian employment data released at 9:30 tomorrow (Beijing time) will be the focus of traders' attention. The Australian central bank stressed in its OCR statement in May that it will “pay close attention to the development of the labor market at the upcoming meeting”. At present, they are still optimistic about employment data. They believe that over time, employment data will “further boost wage growth”. Therefore, any weakness in the labor market should reduce expectations of wages and inflation (inflation expectations are already falling), further increasing the expectations of the relaxation policy. At the time of the last interest rate decision, the RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 1.5%, leaving the bears unprepared, although this is likely due to Sunday's federal elections. But if the employment data announced this time begins to decline, they will reconsider the rate cut.

For traders, 0.70 is still an important resistance line. The Australian dollar is currently at its lowest level since January 2016, and is also under pressure from consumer confidence and the upcoming US presidential order to ban US companies from using Huawei technology. The move apparently made trade tight, trending traders turning to safe-haven currencies (CHF and JPY) and shortages of commodity currencies (Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar).

The Australian dollar is currently close to 0.69, not the 0.70 mark, unless it is seen that trade tensions have eased, it is difficult to see the price soar. However, if the unemployment rate drops to 4.9% and the number of employed people exceeds expectations, the price may rebound to the 0.70 mark. For now, trade tensions remain a key driver of the Australian dollar's headwinds, which continue to put downward pressure on the Australian dollar. Therefore, if the employment situation is not good tomorrow, the Australian dollar may fall below the 0.69 mark.

(Article source: Chart home)

                (Editor: DF392)

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