MajorityAnalystIt is expected that the price of gold will continue to rise, and will break through the upside after breaking the key psychological barrier of $1,300 per ounce. However, Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Group, said in his annual forecast that one of the top 10 surprises for investors in 2019 is that the price of gold will fall to a low of $1,000 per ounce.
Many institutions are optimistic about the gold price in 2019
U.S. Michael Matousek, head of trading at Global Investors, said that the price of gold fell on November 10 due to the dollar's rise, but overall, this will not change the technical trend of gold; Matousek said investors are concerned about whether the price of gold will exceed $1,300 or 1,275. The level of the dollar.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to have more than 10% upside in the next 12 months, and will hit a five-year high at the end of the year, looking at $1,425 per ounce.
Standard Chartered Bank is also optimistic about the prospects for gold. Standard Chartered said that the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to shrink, the dollar is weak, and the lower US Treasury yields constitute a good backdrop for gold prices in early 2019. The price of gold has rebounded to around $1,300 per ounce. Standard Chartered also pointed out that the December ETP (Exchange-traded products) inflow was the strongest month since January 2017, reaching 67 tons; this trend continued until January, the inflow has reached 22.6 tons, this month'sCash flowIt is expected to reach a new high in two years. China's demand seems to have remained stable on February 5th before the Lunar New Year, and central bank buying remained stable, leading the bank to be optimistic about the gold outlook.
Blackstone analysts predict gold prices will fall to $1,000 in 2019
Unlike many analysts who see more gold prices, Wayne Group's vice chairman, Wayne, expects the gold price to reverse in 2019, which is a decline in 2019.
He said that 2019 will bring many surprises to investors, including the price of gold falling to a low of $1,000. His idea is that gold has entered a consolidation period of about four years. Everyone thinks that if the trading range is broken, the price of gold will go up, but his idea is the opposite.
In all his predictions, Wayne said his prediction of the price of gold is the most controversial. He said that many people do not think that the price of gold will change, and almost no one thinks that the price of gold will fall.
However, Wayne still made a pessimistic forecast for the price of gold. To a large extent, this can be explained by some of his other “surprising” predictions, including the S&P index going up 15% in 2019. He pointed out that if the market performs well, ifinterest rateAt around 3%, holding gold has actual costs. Not only does gold have no revenue, the holder has to pay for custodial fees and insurance premiums. Investors will realize that gold is an unattractive asset and prices will fall.
Another surprising news in 2019 is that the Fed will suspend interest rate hikes and stop raising interest rates.
Wayne said that Fed Chairman Powell implemented the fourth rate hike during the year in December 2018, announcing the independence of the Fed, although Trump urged him not to raise interest rates. Powell won't improveinterest rateUntil he was convinced that the US economy itself had enough momentum. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield will not exceed 3.5%. Blackstone also expects traditionalGDPCapital expenditures and real estate drivers will only increase slightly in 2019.
Other risks of “Top Ten Surprise in 2019” include improved prospects for emerging markets, the UK’s second referendum decision to stay in Europe, the stabilization of the US dollar at the end of December, the Muller survey will not cause Trump to be impeached, and more work done by Congress. Expectations, as well as growth stocks continue to lead the US stock market.
From the daily chart, spot gold fell on January 10th as the rebound of the US dollar offset the impact of the dovish Fed meeting minutes, but the overall situation is currently at a high level.
(Article source: Huitong.com)