Tracking the dollar against the packagecurrencyThe US dollar index has recorded a continuous rise in the past seven trading days, setting a record for the longest consecutive increase in the past two years. The last consecutive increase occurred in February 2017, when the US dollar index rose for 10 consecutive trading days. It is worth mentioning that the US dollar index rose by 1.1% in the week of 2.5-9 (Chinese Lunar New Year), the largest in the week since August last year, and the high of 96.69 also rose to a one-month high.
Despite the double pressure of the US economic outlook and the weakening of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the performance of the US dollar index has become very resilient after 2019. Part of the reason is that the dollar's biggest rival and the euro's largest constituent of the dollar index is weak. Disappointing orders from German factories and the European Union's unfavorable factors in lowering the euro zone's economic expectations led the euro to fall back to the low-trading range since the fourth quarter of last year.
Another European currency, the British pound, failed to show its color last week. Although the previous news about Brexit once helped the pound to recover the 1.30 level, the uncertainty still suppressed the room for the exchange rate to continue to rise. The Bank of England has clearly stated that the Brexit issue will be maintained before it is resolved.interest rateconstant.
The worst performance last week was for the Australian dollar. Under the Reserve Bank of Australia to repair economic growth expectations, and hinted at the next timeinterest rateThe adjustment may be after the interest rate cut, the Australian dollar slipped to the 0.70 integer mark against the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar in Oceania was also under pressure as the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% in the fourth quarter.
The exchange rate market showed that emerging market currencies began to retreat from the February highs as the US dollar rose, with a drop of 0.7% last week.
Huixin cited, DBSAnalystPhilip Wee believes that the US dollar index's successive months of corrections due to the expected cooling of the Fed's rate hike are nearing completion. Wee expects the euro to fall to the 1.10 level this year, and the pound against the dollar may test the 1.20 area again.
But FranceIndustrial BankKit Juckes is not optimistic about the dollar. Juckes believes that the lack of liquidity and risk appetite brought about by China's holiday factors is the key to helping the US dollar rebound, but this trend will not affect the overall trend of the US dollar. Juckes pointed out that the Fed's monetary policy adjustments, the US government's closed crisis and debt problems will not be good news for the US dollar.
In the week of the strong dollar, gold is relatively stable. The price of gold last week was 1302.68-1318.91, and the weekly line was slightly lower. It is currently in the form of pregnancy line combination. In the first week of February, the range of 1297.53-1326.19 needs to make a breakthrough, in order to give a clear direction for the next stage of the market.
(Article source: Gold headline)