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LeTV
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:08:27 Share it on the web version
                        Research report hit: 160 billion market value plummeted 63% There are four limit stop and other music
Source: China Fund News Editor: Oriental Wealth

K diagram 300104_2

  Leading Word: It is common to report a report point of view and face it.

It is said that brokerage analysts are destined to be a career that has been beaten. The stock price has such a good forecast and it is even more troublesome to run into land mines. China's fund reporter, today through a "Ray" stocks to re-competition under the past, optimistic buy buy buy research report, review the past, not really hit the analyst, but summed up the lessons learned, we all Good investment future.

  (A) You pushed me to push it together: Big brokers have already pushed LeTV

News Everyone knows that LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year. If LeTV is still in a huge loss in the fourth quarter, then the money that may be listed for seven years will be lost in one year. But this article does not discuss this matter. Let's take a look at the controversial LeTV. It has been questioned since it was listed. However, the way to go is to make new progress. The ecologicalization has also made the market suffocate for a dream. The market value is as high as RMB 160 billion. In the wake of liquidity and public opinion storms, more than 60 billion market capitalizations were also estimated by the fund to fall below its four limit levels. Then, in this ups and downs, what kind of performance is the professional brokerage research report?

LeTV was listed on the market in August 2010, and by the time of the peak of the bull market in 2015, the stock price has risen 46 times in five years. The China Fund Newspaper reporter has collected statistics from a third-party research platform. Since the launch of LeTV.com, as of now, brokerage analysts have released 438 articles for LeTV.com, among which are CITIC, CICC, Haitong, Huatai, and Xingye. Orient, the East, the Yangtze River and other mainstream mainstream brokers.

In terms of time, the number in the most recent five years is roughly as follows. The number of research reports since 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 are 53, 47, 58, 49, and 9 respectively. There is also a certain correlation between the number of research reports and the stock price trend of LeTV. In 2013 and 2015 with relatively good growth rates, the number of research reports was significantly higher.

Interestingly, in these research reports, there was almost no singer, and even after the eruption of the financial chain crisis at the end of last year, many brokerage analysts still reported “overweight” ratings through research reports. In April of this year, LeTV’s 2016 annual report commented that Haitong Securities analysts still said that the company will fully launch the process of globalization. It is expected that the net profit for 2017 and 2018 will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan, which will be increased. Rating. I did not expect the loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, for the analyst sad. . .

"The company will evolve from the ecological chain to the ecological node, so as to achieve the synergy effect of scale and strength, and fully start the process of globalization. We expect the company's net profit for the year of 2017/2018 to be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan, which will increase the rating. ”

No wonder some people joked that LeTV is more reliable than recommending LeTV.

  (B) Statistics show that it may not be possible to earn money after watching brokerage research

Recently there was a very popular article called "Research report and stock returns: I finally realized that I didn't make money...". The research inside was very interesting.

In terms of absolute returns, analysts recommend the following rules for stocks:

1. It has only been pushed up;

2. It will soon peak after the push;

3. A 40-day or so (about 2 months) bottomed out began to bounce, but 120 trading days (about 6 months) were only worthwhile.

One word is also very good: The more popular the push ticket is, the higher is the possibility of thunder. It seems to be appropriate to place this statement on LeTV.

In 2015, A shares ushered in a bull market. That is, in that year, LeTV achieved an astonishing jump of more than 500% in its stock price growth on 84 trading days, setting a record price of 89.47 yuan (rejuvenation). And that is from this year on, LeTV's research report began to be "brainwashing" trend in the securities analyst's pen. The China Fund Reporter made an inventory of the situation. In the case of “Liking” LeTV, brokerage analysts “had contributed” and the views given were also “awesome.”

Let's appreciate the following:

  1. It is expected that the corresponding market value space of LeTV in 2017 will be 317.1 billion.

  Reality: Today's 62.1 billion market capitalization is also estimated by the fund's 4 low limit

When LeEr was regarded as the "Game of the Kings" in 2015, a number of brokers gave a very high rating to the company that broke out. Not only did they raise their ratings, they also had high expectations for LeTV's market value.

For example, China Creation Securities: "LeTV.com: Disruption of Mobile Phones and Video, Internet Eco-Empire" was released on June 8, 2015. From the headline, it is fanatical "LeTV." The contents are also quite astonishing:

Letv Ecology will have a foothold in mobile phones and TVs at this stage. We expect TV subscribers to reach 550, 1350, 25.5 million in 15-17 years, and 300, 1300, 45 million mobile phone users, according to the number of users in 17 years. With a single-user market value of 4924 yuan (referring to the single-market market value of millet), the corresponding market value space is 3471 million.

The fact is that the current market value of LeTV is 62.1 billion, which is far behind the above-mentioned report. Not only this, the funds have also valuated in accordance with the 3-4 limit in July, and before the suspension on April 17th. The stock price is 30.68 yuan, China Post Ventures, Harvest, E Fund and other funds to give about 3 the value of the daily stop, according to the valuation of 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan, more Huaan Fund to its valuation of 20.13 yuan, equivalent to 4 limit stops.

Analysts of Galaxy Securities also gave a recommendation level to LeTV for the first time in May 2015. They also expressed their long-term interest in the strategic layout of Internet+ era LeTV. The company’s ecosystem has basically been laid, and it will enter rapid development and improvement in the future. During the period, the market value at the end of 2015 was estimated to be about 250 billion yuan, and in fact the market value of LeTV’s stock price at that time was also more than 160 billion yuan.

(Don't say it, my face hurts.)

  2. It is estimated that the company's net profit will be 1.044 billion in 2017

  Reality: Expected to lose 1.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2017

In addition to forecasting LeTV's market value, brokerage analysts also like to make an estimate of LeTV’s profitability. However, the plan did not catch up with the change and LeTV’s performance exceeded once again their imagination.

On October 26, 2016, Huatai Securities issued a research report titled "The Progress of Internationalization Steadily Advances, with Terminals and Members Doubled in Revenue," and believes that with the expansion of hardware and web site traffic, the number of paying members is expected to be realized. Double the growth; at the same time, its “North Siluo” international distribution strategy is gradually implemented and is expected to establish a globally linked ecological network. It also stated that the current injection of LeTV is still underway, and its performance is not considered. It is expected that the company's net profit will be 750 million yuan and 9.8 billion yuan in 16-17.

In April of this year, LeTV disclosed its 2016 annual report. Haitong Securities analysts are optimistic that LeTV is fully initiating the globalization process. It is expected that net profit will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan this year and next. Implement eco-type content structure, eco-platform, eco-type terminal, eco-type application, eco-organization and eco-type marketing, evolve from chain ecology to node ecology, achieve synergy of scale and strength, and fully open up globalization process. .

In fact, yesterday night, LeTV announced that it expects a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in the July-September quarter and an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion yuan in the first three quarters. The major segments of the business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue, and membership income all fell sharply.

The company said that due to the tight funding and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which affected the company’s reputation and credibility. At the same time, due to the debt risk of related parties and the tight cash flow to the company’s supplier cooperation system, the company’s The supply to the account period grants and other negative pressure.

  3, buy buy, strong buy!

  Reality: After falling 63%, there is still a limit to wait

Buying, buying, buying, and buying are most of the securities companies that vigorously shouted flags when recommending LeTV. For example, analysts of Gao Hua Securities, on June 22, 2016, Gao Hua Securities released LeTV.com's report “Not only is China's NETFLIX-Ecosystem Advantage; Joining the Conviction List”, it is expected that LeTV will pay for the next three years. The subscription membership will increase from 6 million to 24 million, which will benefit from the sales of 3 million super handsets and super TVs in 2015, respectively.

unstoppable. Since then, the analyst has reaffirmed his "Strong Buy" rating on LeTV. In the nine research reports issued by the analyst in one breath, even when LeTV negatively emerged, it firmly believed that it would not be a problem in 2016. On the 5th of the month, a research report titled "Market Concerns Excessive, Will Be Monetized; Reiterating Powerful Buying (Summary)" was published. The most difficult period for the direct LeTV is over. In fact, at that time, LeTV The most difficult time has not yet arrived.

Similarly, Huatai Securities, starting from 2015, Huatai Securities issued a total of 16 research reports on LeTV. However, regardless of 2015, 2016, Huatai Securities rated LeTV as “buy”.

In addition, in June 2016, six years after the suspension of LeTV.com's "Century Resumption," many brokerages stated that LeTV, which is the return of the king, will be a booster for the GEM and A-share market to regain their upward momentum. Huatai Securities, Gao Hua Securities, China National Gold Corporation, CITIC Securities and other brokerage companies have high expectations for their future trends. CITIC Securities believes that LeTV refinancing has taken an important step. Funds and food have helped the ecology jump and maintain a “buy” rating. CICC is looking at a target price of 70 yuan.

The facts prove that LeTV has since ceased trading as a "nail house." Fund Jun has roughly reviewed several suspensions of LeTV.com's suspension in recent years: the suspension of trading on December 7, 2015, the resumption of trading on June 3, 2016, the suspension of trading on July 6, 2016, and the resumption of trading on July 14, 2016; It was suspended from December 7 and resumed on January 16, 2017. It was suspended from April 17, 2017.

  (3) Big Vs have also been stunned for music

In fact, it was not just the collective climaxes of the major analysts. The industry’s public opinion on LeTV is already one-sided support. So that two years ago, on June 24th, 2015, Liu Shuwei who had punctured the myth of "Lam Tin" released "LeTV.com's analysis report: The burning model is difficult to sustain," questioning LeTV by burning money. When he burns himself, he is also subjected to numerous tweets in the industry. He ridicules Liu Yongwei and doesn’t understand Internet companies. He also said that this is a very eye-popping report and he felt that in China, he wanted to be a great company. It is easy to be suspected of being a profiteer at all times and to be constantly exposed to the dangers of various policy controls. It must be questioned by so-called experts at all times.

Related reports>>>

  LeTV Photographs Responding to Covert Coverage: Financial Information Available in May

  LeTV continued to suspend the license for nearly six months

  LeTV: Gu Yingqiong was banned by US courts

[PAGE default page 1]

[Extended reading]

  LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion yuan: almost 7 years of profit loss Jia Yueting shrinks its wealth by 40 billion yuan

Leading word: Is it a dream to hold up the RMB60 billion market value of LeTV?

House seemingly endless rain.

Suspension of LeTV for six months, first said that October 17 is still no way to resume trading. Then these days, "accidents": 1, the suspended reorganization of the subject LeTV, the shareholders said they could not access the accounts for prosecution; 2, the day before the Hurun Report released Bruce Lee as the owner, founder Jia Yueting's wealth from the 42 billion yuan shrink 95% to 2 billion yuan; 3. Last night, it was estimated that the huge loss in the first three quarters was 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion yuan.

  In the third quarter, a huge loss of 1 billion yuan

Blue lean mushrooms! From April 17 onwards, it is still not known when to resume trading. Tonight, LeTV's investors have been hit again.

LeTV announced in the evening that it expects to make a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in the July-September quarter, with an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion yuan in the first three quarters, and 490 million yuan in the first three quarters of last year. The major segments of the business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue, and membership income all fell sharply. The capital chain crisis was once again exposed in July. It now appears that it has actually affected LeTV's operating performance.

The company said that due to the tight funding and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which affected the company’s reputation and credibility. At the same time, due to the debt risk of related parties and the tight cash flow to the company’s supplier cooperation system, the company’s The supply to the account period grants and other negative pressure.

Figure 1: Big Loss Announcement in the First Three Quarters

Interestingly, in the first three quarters of this year, it lost 16 billion yuan, but now there is still 6.13 billion in the market value of LeTV. On August 12, 2010, LeTV, listed after the listing of 2010-2016 years The sum of net profit was only 2.142 billion yuan. If LeTV recaptures a huge loss in the fourth quarter, then it is really a seven-year profit from listing, and it will end in one year.

New music as a new comeback.

Table 1: Performance of LeTV Online

  2, Jia Yueting shrinks 95% of wealth

With the crisis in the capital chain, LeTV's huge loss echoes the fact that, in the 2017 Hurun Report released yesterday, Jia Yueting’s wealth has shrunk by 95%, and as a characteristic case, the largest decline in wealth has been explained. The following is a list of Hu Runbang’s comments on Jia Yueting’s decline in wealth:

The greatest decline in wealth Jia Yueting's wealth shrank 95% to 2 billion yuan. Since November of last year, LeTV has been subject to frequent funding problems. Until July this year, the 1.27 billion assets of Jia Yueting and the three companies of the LeTV system were frozen by the government. At this time, Jia Yueting has pledged nearly all of LeTV's equity held by Leshi Holding to Sunac's Sunac, and Shanghai Securities News confirmed that the 99.0% of the shares of LeTV.com held by Jia Yueting have been judicially frozen. Later on when Jia returned to China, how to fulfill his debt obligations became the focus of public discussion. The number of Sina Weibo fans in Jiayue Ting has risen to over 16 million in the past year.

Figure 2: Jia Yueting rich list screenshot

The Fund King checked the 2016 list. At that time, Jia Yueting’s wealth was 42 billion. One year later, I didn't say anything, I wish Jia teacher.

  3. LeTV was sued: shareholders are unable to access accounts

In recent days, as the asset reorganization target of LeTV, LeTV has been sued by its own shareholders, and shareholders are unable to check the accounts of the company.

The plaintiff's LeTV Group's shareholder, Beijing Siwei Equity Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership) (the “Science Partnership”), sued the company’s 200 million yuan stake in LeTV Film. The Siwei Partnership, which owns 2.9684% equity of LeTV Films, stated that Lexus Filming will not provide the minutes of the shareholders’ meeting, resolutions of the board of directors, financial accounting reports, etc. for the plaintiff to review since the date of the shares from June 11, 2015 to the date of the lawsuit in this case. The case of Siwei Partners was filed on June 27, 2017.

Figure 3: Screenshot of Shareholder Prosecution Instrument

It is worth noting that Siwei Partners has a background of central enterprises and CITIC Guoan Fund is an executive partner of Beijing Siwei. The CITIC Guoan Fund was established in 2014. It is a professional fund management company initiated and established by the CITIC Guoan Group, a subsidiary of the state-owned CITIC Group. CITIC Guoan Group holds 40% of its shares and is the largest shareholder.

In this regard, LeTV also announced LeTV’s announcement and clarification tonight. The announcement stated that since the establishment of LeTV, it has always complied with relevant laws and regulations in the course of the company’s business operations, and has asked shareholders to review the company’s financial and operational information requirements. Has been actively cooperate.

“Because the company was in the period of major assets reorganization, based on the management requirements for disclosure of inside information, we had provided it with financial information, accounting books and corporate governance documents in a timely manner as requested by Beijing Siwei (Siwei Partners) in May 2017. Necessary information."

  4、Having failed to resume trading for six months after the suspension: Major non-precedent matters

LeTV.com announced on October 10 that LeTV.com's plans to restructure LeTV's major assets are significant and unprecedented, so it is expected that it will not be possible to disclose the plan and apply for resumption of trading before October 16. In other words, the original suspension of three months, the suspension of the suspension of six months, and now six months, still can not resume because: There is no major precedent.

What is this major non-precedented matter? That is, LeTV.com's issuance of shares in LeTV Films and the payment of cash for the purchase of assets and the collection of matching funds involves the company's major asset restructuring. Although many listed companies have seen asset restructurings, they cannot say who they are or whether they are major and unprecedented. From the perspective of the reorganization of LeTV Films, which has been under consideration since May 2016, there should be few precedents.

LeTV.com stated that in order to safeguard the interests of investors, the company’s stock application has been suspended since October 17, 2017.

Figure 4: LeTV

  5. When did Jia Yueting return to the country?

Although Sun Hongbin, the financial controller of Sunac China, acted as a white knight and made strategic investment in Levision at the time of crisis, he has now become the chairman of LeTV and has a substantial impact on LeTV's operations. However, judging from the current situation, the crisis of the entire LeTV system has not been completely lifted.

As the founder and real controller of LeTV, Jia Yueting went to the United States in July this year. He still hasn’t returned yet. Bell Ringer needs to be a bell person. Jia Yueting’s return to the country is also of concern. When Jia Yueting first went abroad, it was reported that he would return to China next week. Now he has spent weeks and weeks leaving only the “Jia Yue Ting who will return to China next week”. He is also considered to be a top company.

"I do not know his wife, Liu Qiang and the United States, regrets the creation of Ali Jack Ma, nothing, Wang Jianlin, family life, ordinary Ma Huateng, will return to Jia Yueting next week."

  6, brokers have not issued research report for half a year

As a LeTV network that was once held up, the funds have valuated their valuations in accordance with 3-4 stops in July. The stock price before the suspension on April 17 was 30.68 yuan. The funds provided by China Post, Harvest, E Fund, etc. About 3 valuations of the low limit, according to 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan to give its valuation, more Huaan Fund to its valuation of 20.13 yuan, equivalent to 4 limit the stop.

In addition to the actions of the buyer’s funds to adjust valuations, the analysts who have exerted influence through the research report are now silent. The China Fund Newspaper reporter used a third-party platform to inquire. After the release of the 2016 annual report and the quarterly report in April this year, one or two brokers commented on the report. After that, they no longer saw the Chinese promotion report for LeTV.

Figure 4: LeTV report situation

In the domestic brokerage research report has always been to see more, in this year's comments and research reports, brokerage analysts are also given a rating of overweight, and some expect LeTV to make a profit of 1 billion yuan this year, now in the first three quarters Loss of 1.6 billion yuan.

Figure 5: Introducing LeTV in brokerage report

Figure 6: Introducing LeTV in brokerage report

(Source: China Fund News)

[PAGE default page 2]
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:13:26
                            Delisting! ! !
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:14:03
                            Ah, it was originally junk stock!
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:14:15
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:14:45
                            What is the face to call the disk man?
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:15:35
                            10 down limit withdrawals
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:16:53
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:17:07
                            People do not understand? Fraudulent.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:17:18
                            You say 4 are 4. Isn't this a shameless accomplishment? There is no king method! ! Is there anyone to manage,,,,
If you say 40 are reasonable, it will be in line with Wang Fa,,,
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:18:44
                            We couldn’t stop ourselves from doing so. We couldn’t rely on the research report itself. This was the beginning of the stock market.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:19:49
                            Relatively bullish or bearish against the trend is to be sprayed. The high level of bullishness is generally awkward! How to get up, often will come down.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:20:49
                            Is the analyst in China's stock market real? It's all called us to go to the disk
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:21:03
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:22:38
                            Research report is written by unscrupulous analysts and agencies.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:23:07
                            To implement the blacklist system
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:23:14
                            LeTV has a market capitalization of 10 billion, no more
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:25:32
                            Liar with black mouth invincible
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:25:37
                            If you can't make money, see the research report, raise your hand.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:26:47
                            If the resumption of trading is not a four-time limit, isn't it?
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:27:21
                            Therefore, the wonderful stock can not rely on what analyst stocks, no charge to listen to and reference, no stock, no one will send money, but also rely on their own experience and luck, there is no other way to small scattered.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:29:37
                            It's a little beautiful to think of four stops
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:30:59
                            This stock should be the end of the delisting
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:31:08
                            The government advocates value investment only. Capital limit limit for investment, who will be sold to the market? Is it sold to poor retail brothers? Hot money is coming fast, shipping is fast, and the loss is not the retail brothers? Knowing this, why should you chase hot money? Why do not bargain-hunting like 601678 Binhua shares such a valuable low price-earnings ratio, market value, high net assets, high undiscriminated profits, high public accumulation funds, good industrial prospects, performance continues to grow small and medium-sized stocks lurk it?
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:33:55
                            It is estimated that they will be delisted. I do not know if there are any retail investors. I am really sorry for them.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:34:11
                            4 down? How do I see 40 down? Conscience!
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:35:08
                            Chatting in the office, talking about love, and the so-called research report written by a 3,000 salary person, do you believe?
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:35:13
                            The announcement was a late news. The research report was a study of cutting leeks. I never read it.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:35:16
                            I never believed that those research reports are just speculations. Probability is only
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:36:02
                            Therefore, the report to the Securities and Futures Commission for the record should affect the assessment of the ratings and ratings of various securities companies.
Posted at 2017-10-15 08:36:26
                            The stock market story: Lao Lai fled to use fake divorce to fool over supervision and let his wife and children leave the United States to reunite.
Posted on 2017-10-15 08:37:23
Shangguan Feifei :LeTV has a market capitalization of 10 billion, no more
                            Sell ​​you
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Source: China Fund News Editor: Oriental Wealth

K diagram 300104_2

  Leading Word: It is common to report a report point of view and face it.

It is said that brokerage analysts are destined to be a career that has been beaten. The stock price has such a good forecast and it is even more troublesome to run into land mines. China's fund reporter, today through a "Ray" stocks to re-competition under the past, optimistic buy buy buy research report, review the past, not really hit the analyst, but summed up the lessons learned, we all Good investment future.

  (A) You pushed me to push it together: Big brokers have already pushed LeTV

News Everyone knows that LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year. If LeTV is still in a huge loss in the fourth quarter, then the money that may be listed for seven years will be lost in one year. But this article does not discuss this matter. Let's take a look at the controversial LeTV. It has been questioned since it was listed. However, the way to go is to make new progress. The ecologicalization has also made the market suffocate for a dream. The market value is as high as RMB 160 billion. In the wake of liquidity and public opinion disturbances, more than 60 billion market capitalizations were also estimated by the fund to fall below the limit. Then, in this ups and downs, what kind of performance is the professional brokerage research report?

LeTV was listed on the market in August 2010, and by the time of the peak of the bull market in 2015, the stock price has risen 46 times in five years. The China Fund Newspaper reporter has collected statistics from a third-party research platform. Since the launch of LeTV.com, as of now, brokerage analysts have released 438 articles for LeTV.com, among which are CITIC, CICC, Haitong, Huatai, and Xingye. Orient, the East, the Yangtze River and other mainstream mainstream brokers.

In terms of time, the number in the most recent five years is roughly as follows. The number of research reports since 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 are 53, 47, 58, 49, and 9 respectively. There is also a certain correlation between the number of research reports and the stock price trend of LeTV. In 2013 and 2015, where the rising trend was relatively good, the number of research reports was significantly higher.

Interestingly, in these research reports, there was almost no singer, and even after the eruption of the financial chain crisis at the end of last year, there were still many brokerage analysts who reportedly added “overweight” ratings. In April of this year, LeTV’s 2016 annual report commented that Haitong Securities analysts still said that the company will fully launch the process of globalization. It is expected that the net profit for 2017 and 2018 will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan, which will be increased. Rating. I did not expect the loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, for the analyst sad. . .

"The company will evolve from the ecological chain to the ecological node, so as to achieve the synergy effect of scale and strength, and fully start the process of globalization. We expect the company's net profit for the year of 2017/2018 to be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan, which will increase the rating. ”

No wonder some people joked that LeTV is more reliable than recommending LeTV.

  (B) Statistics show that it may not be possible to earn money by looking at securities firms

Recently there was a very popular article called "Research report and stock returns: I finally realized that I didn't make money...". The research inside was very interesting.

In terms of absolute returns, analysts recommend the following rules for stocks:

1. It has only been pushed up;

2. It will soon peak after the push;

3. A 40-day or so (about 2 months) bottomed out began to bounce, but 120 trading days (about 6 months) were only worthwhile.

One word is also very good: The more popular the push ticket is, the higher is the possibility of thunder. It seems to be appropriate to place this statement on LeTV.

In 2015, A shares ushered in a bull market. That is, in this year, LeTV achieved an astonishing jump of more than 500% in its stock price growth on 84 trading days, setting a record price of 89.47 yuan (rejuvenation). And that is from this year on, LeTV's research report began to be "brainwashing" trend in the securities analyst's pen. The China Fund Reporter made an inventory of the situation. In the case of “Liking” LeTV, brokerage analysts “had contributed” and the views given were also “awesome.”

Let's appreciate the following:

  1. It is expected that the corresponding market value space of LeTV in 2017 will be 317.1 billion.

  Reality: Today's 62.1 billion market capitalization is also estimated by the fund's 4 low limit

When LeEr was regarded as the "Game of the Kings" in 2015, a number of brokers gave a very high rating to the company that broke out. Not only did they raise their ratings, they also had high expectations for LeTV's market value.

For example, China Creation Securities: "LeTV.com: Disruption of Mobile Phones and Video, Internet Eco-Empire" was released on June 8, 2015. From the headline, it is fanatical "LeTV." The contents are also quite astonishing:

Letv Ecology will have a foothold in mobile phones and TVs at this stage. We expect that TV subscribers will reach 550, 1350, and 25.5 million in 15-17 and mobile phone users will reach 300, 1300, 45 million, according to the number of users in 17 years. With a single-user market value of 4924 yuan (referring to the single-market market value of millet), the corresponding market value space is 3471 million.

The fact is that the current market value of LeTV is 62.1 billion, which is far behind the above-mentioned report. Not only this, the funds have also valuated in accordance with the 3-4 limit in July, and before the suspension on April 17th. The stock price is 30.68 yuan, China Post Ventures, Harvest, E Fund and other funds to give about 3 the value of the daily stop, according to the valuation of 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan, more Huaan Fund to its valuation of 20.13 yuan, equivalent to 4 limit stops.

Analysts of Galaxy Securities also gave a recommendation level to LeTV for the first time in May 2015. They also expressed their long-term interest in the strategic layout of Internet+ era LeTV. The company’s ecosystem has basically been laid, and it will enter rapid development and improvement in the future. During the period, the market value at the end of 2015 was estimated to be about 250 billion yuan, and in fact the market value of LeTV's stock price was also more than 160 billion yuan.

(Don't say it, my face hurts.)

  2. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 2017 will be 1.044 billion yuan

  Reality: Expected to lose 1.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2017

In addition to forecasting LeTV's market value, brokerage analysts also like to make an estimate of LeTV’s profitability. However, the plan did not catch up with the change and LeTV’s performance exceeded once again their imagination.

On October 26, 2016, Huatai Securities issued a research report titled "The Progress of Internationalization Steadily Advances and the Revenue of Terminals and Members Are Doubled". It is believed that with the expansion of hardware and web site traffic, the number of paying members is expected to be realized. Double the growth; at the same time, its “North Siluo” international distribution strategy is gradually implemented and is expected to establish a globally linked ecological network. It also stated that the current injection of LeTV is still underway, and its performance is not considered. It is expected that the company's net profit will be 750 million yuan and 9.8 billion yuan in 16-17.

In April of this year, LeTV disclosed its 2016 annual report. Haitong Securities analysts are optimistic that LeTV is fully initiating the globalization process. It is expected that net profit will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan this year and next. Implement eco-type content structure, eco-platform, eco-type terminal, eco-type application, eco-organization and eco-type marketing, evolve from chain ecology to node ecology, achieve synergy of scale and strength, and fully open up globalization process. .

In fact, yesterday night, LeTV announced that it expects a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in the July-September quarter and an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion yuan in the first three quarters. The major segments of the business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue, and membership income all fell sharply.

The company said that due to the tight funding and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which affected the company’s reputation and credibility. At the same time, due to the debt risk of related parties and the tight cash flow to the company’s supplier cooperation system, the company’s The supply to the account period grants and other negative pressure.

  3, buy buy, strong buy!

  Reality: After falling 63%, there is still a limit to wait

Buying, buying, buying, and buying are most of the securities companies that vigorously shouted flags when recommending LeTV. For example, analysts of Gao Hua Securities, on June 22, 2016, Gao Hua Securities released LeTV.com's report “Not only is China's NETFLIX-Ecosystem Advantage; Joining the Conviction List”, it is expected that LeTV will pay for the next three years. The subscription membership will increase from 6 million to 24 million, which will benefit from the sales of 3 million super handsets and super TVs in 2015, respectively.

unstoppable. Since then, the analyst has reaffirmed his "Strong Buy" rating on LeTV. In the nine research reports issued by the analyst in one breath, even when LeTV negatively emerged, it firmly believed that it would not be a problem in 2016. On the 5th of the month, a research report titled "Market Concerns Excessive, Will Be Monetized; Reiterating Powerful Buying (Summary)" was published. The most difficult period for the direct LeTV is over. In fact, at that time, LeTV The most difficult time has not yet arrived.

Similarly, Huatai Securities, starting from 2015, Huatai Securities issued a total of 16 research reports on LeTV. However, regardless of 2015, 2016, Huatai Securities rated LeTV as “buy”.

In addition, in June 2016, six years after the suspension of LeTV.com's "Century Resumption," many brokerages stated that LeTV, which is the return of the king, will be a booster for the GEM and A-share market to regain their upward momentum. Huatai Securities, Gao Hua Securities, China National Gold Corporation, CITIC Securities and other brokerage companies have high expectations for their future trends. CITIC Securities believes that LeTV refinancing has taken an important step. Funds and food have helped the ecology jump and maintain a “buy” rating. CICC is looking at a target price of 70 yuan.

The facts prove that LeTV has since ceased trading as a "nail house." Fund Jun has roughly reviewed several suspensions of LeTV.com's suspension in recent years: the suspension of trading on December 7, 2015, the resumption of trading on June 3, 2016, the suspension of trading on July 6, 2016, and the resumption of trading on July 14, 2016; It was suspended from December 7 and resumed on January 16, 2017. It was suspended from April 17, 2017.

  (3) Big Vs have also been stunned for music

In fact, it was not just the collective climaxes of the major analysts. The industry’s public opinion on LeTV is already one-sided support. So that two years ago, on June 24th, 2015, Liu Shuwei who had punctured the myth of "Lam Tin" released "LeTV.com's analysis report: The burning model is difficult to sustain," questioning LeTV by burning money. When he burns himself, he is also subjected to numerous tweets in the industry. He ridicules Liu Yongwei and doesn’t understand Internet companies. He also said that this is a very eye-popping report and he felt that in China, he wanted to be a great company. It is easy to be suspected of being a profiteer at all times and to be constantly exposed to the dangers of various policy controls. It must be questioned by so-called experts at all times.

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[Extended reading]

  LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion yuan: almost 7 years of profit loss Jia Yueting shrinks its wealth by 40 billion yuan

Leading word: Is it a dream to hold up the RMB60 billion market value of LeTV?

House seemingly endless rain.

Suspension of LeTV for six months, first said that October 17 is still no way to resume trading. Then these days, "accidents": 1, the suspended reorganization of the subject LeTV, the shareholders said they could not access the accounts for prosecution; 2, the day before the Hurun Report released Bruce Lee as the owner, founder Jia Yueting's wealth from the 42 billion yuan shrink 95% to 2 billion yuan; 3. Last night, it was estimated that the huge loss in the first three quarters was 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion yuan.

  In the third quarter, a huge loss of 1 billion yuan

Blue lean mushrooms! From April 17 onwards, it is still not known when to resume trading. Tonight, LeTV's investors have been hit again.

LeTV announced in the evening that it expects to make a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in the July-September quarter, with an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion yuan in the first three quarters, and 490 million yuan in the first three quarters of last year. The major segments of the business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue, and membership income all fell sharply. The capital chain crisis was once again exposed in July. It now appears that it has actually affected LeTV's operating performance.

The company said that due to the tight funding and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which affected the company’s reputation and credibility. At the same time, due to the debt risk of related parties and the tight cash flow to the company’s supplier cooperation system, the company’s The supply to the account period grants and other negative pressure.

Figure 1: Big Loss Announcement in the First Three Quarters

Interestingly, in the first three quarters of this year, it lost 16 billion yuan, but now there is still 6.13 billion in the market value of LeTV. On August 12, 2010, LeTV, listed after the listing of 2010-2016 years The sum of net profit was only 2.142 billion yuan. If LeTV recaptures a huge loss in the fourth quarter, then it is really a seven-year profit from listing, and it will end in one year.

New music as a new comeback.

Table 1: Performance of LeTV Online

  2, Jia Yueting shrinks 95% of wealth

With the crisis in the capital chain, LeTV's huge loss echoes the fact that, in the 2017 Hurun Report released yesterday, Jia Yueting’s wealth has shrunk by 95%, and as a characteristic case, the largest decline in wealth has been explained. The following is a list of Hu Runbang’s comments on Jia Yueting’s decline in wealth:

The greatest decline in wealth Jia Yueting's wealth shrank 95% to 2 billion yuan. Since November of last year, LeTV has been subject to frequent funding problems. Until July this year, the 1.27 billion assets of Jia Yueting and the three companies of the LeTV system were frozen by the government. At this time, Jia Yueting has pledged nearly all of LeTV's equity held by Leshi Holding to Sunac's Sunac, and Shanghai Securities News confirmed that the 99.0% of the shares of LeTV.com held by Jia Yueting have been judicially frozen. Later on when Jia returned to China, how to fulfill his debt obligations became the focus of public discussion. The number of Sina Weibo fans in Jiayue Ting has risen to over 16 million in the past year.

Figure 2: Jia Yueting rich list screenshot

The Fund King checked the 2016 list. At that time, Jia Yueting’s wealth was 42 billion. One year later, I didn't say anything, I wish Jia teacher.

  3. LeTV was sued: shareholders are unable to access accounts

In recent days, as the asset reorganization target of LeTV, LeTV has been sued by its own shareholders, and shareholders are unable to check the accounts of the company.

The plaintiff's LeTV Group's shareholder, Beijing Siwei Equity Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership) (the “Science Partnership”), sued the company’s 200 million yuan stake in LeTV Film. The Siwei Partnership, which owns 2.9684% equity of LeTV Films, stated that Lexus Filming will not provide the minutes of the shareholders’ meeting, resolutions of the board of directors, financial accounting reports, etc. for the plaintiff to review since the date of the shares from June 11, 2015 to the date of the lawsuit in this case. The case of Siwei Partners was filed on June 27, 2017.

Figure 3: Screenshot of Shareholder Prosecution Instrument

It is worth noting that Siwei Partners has a background of central enterprises and CITIC Guoan Fund is an executive partner of Beijing Siwei. The CITIC Guoan Fund was established in 2014. It is a professional fund management company initiated and established by the CITIC Guoan Group, a subsidiary of the state-owned CITIC Group. CITIC Guoan Group holds 40% of its shares and is the largest shareholder.

In this regard, LeTV also announced LeTV’s announcement and clarification tonight. The announcement stated that since the establishment of LeTV, it has always complied with relevant laws and regulations in the course of the company’s business operations, and has asked shareholders to review the company’s financial and operational information requirements. Has been actively cooperate.

“Because the company was in the period of major assets reorganization, based on the management requirements for disclosure of inside information, we had provided it with financial information, accounting books and corporate governance documents in a timely manner as requested by Beijing Siwei (Siwei Partners) in May 2017. Necessary information."

  4、Having failed to resume trading for six months after the suspension: Major non-precedent matters

LeTV.com announced on October 10 that LeTV.com's plans to restructure LeTV's major assets are significant and unprecedented, so it is expected that it will not be possible to disclose the plan and apply for resumption of trading before October 16. In other words, the original suspension of three months, the suspension of the suspension of six months, and now six months, still can not resume because: There is no major precedent.

What is this major non-precedented matter? That is, LeTV.com's issuance of shares in LeTV Films and the payment of cash for the purchase of assets and the collection of matching funds involves the company's major asset restructuring. Although many listed companies have seen asset restructurings, they cannot say who they are or whether they are major and unprecedented. From the perspective of the reorganization of LeTV Films, which has been under consideration since May 2016, there should be few precedents.

LeTV.com stated that in order to safeguard the interests of investors, the company’s stock application has been suspended since October 17, 2017.

Figure 4: LeTV

  5. When did Jia Yueting return to the country?

Although Sun Hongbin, the financial controller of Sunac China, acted as a white knight and made strategic investment in Levision at the time of crisis, he has now become the chairman of LeTV and has a substantial impact on LeTV's operations. However, judging from the current situation, the crisis of the entire LeTV system has not been completely lifted.

As the founder and real controller of LeTV, Jia Yueting went to the United States in July this year. He still hasn’t returned yet. Bell Ringer needs to be a bell person. Jia Yueting’s return to the country is also of concern. When Jia Yueting first went abroad, it was reported that he would return to China next week. Now he has spent weeks and weeks leaving only the “Jia Yue Ting who will return to China next week”. He is also considered to be a top company.

"I do not know his wife, Liu Qiang and the United States, regrets the creation of Ali Jack Ma, nothing, Wang Jianlin, family life, ordinary Ma Huateng, will return to Jia Yueting next week."

  6, brokers have not issued research report for half a year

As a LeTV network that was once held up, the funds have valuated their valuations in accordance with 3-4 stops in July. The stock price before the suspension on April 17 was 30.68 yuan. The funds provided by China Post, Harvest, E Fund, etc. About 3 valuations of the low limit, according to 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan to give its valuation, more Huaan Fund to its valuation of 20.13 yuan, equivalent to 4 limit the stop.

In addition to the actions of the buyer’s funds to adjust valuations, the analysts who have exerted influence through the research report are now silent. The China Fund Newspaper reporter used a third-party platform to inquire. After the release of the 2016 annual report and the quarterly report in April this year, one or two brokers commented on the report. After that, they no longer saw the Chinese promotion report for LeTV.

Figure 4: LeTV report situation

In the domestic brokerage research report has always been to see more, in this year's comments and research reports, brokerage analysts are also given a rating of overweight, and some expect LeTV to make a profit of 1 billion yuan this year, now in the first three quarters Loss of 1.6 billion yuan.

Figure 5: Introducing LeTV in brokerage report

Figure 6: Introducing LeTV in brokerage report

(Source: China Fund News)

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