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Published on 2017-10-15 08:08:27 Share it web version
                        The research report was beaten: 160 billion market value plummeted 63% and 4 down limit and other music
Source: China Fund News Editor: Eastern Fortune Network

K map 300104_2

  Lead: It is common for the research report to be beaten. It is too embarrassing to meet LeTV!

It is said that brokerage analysts are destined to be a face-fighting profession. The stock price is so predictable, it is even more troublesome to hit a mine. China Fund News reporter, today through the performance of a "lei" stocks to re-wind, the past optimistic buy and buy research report, looking back, not really want to face analysts, but to sum up lessons, everyone more Good investment in the future.

  (1) You push me to push together: big brokers have pushed the music network before

Everyone knows the news. LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion in the first three quarters of this year. If LeTV is still in a big loss in the fourth quarter, it may be worth a year to lose money in seven years. However, this article does not discuss this matter. Let's take a look at the controversial LeTV network, which has been questioned since its listing. However, all the way has been triumphant, and the ecologicalization has also suffocated the market as a dream. The market value is as high as more than 160 billion yuan. In the midst of liquidity and public opinion, more than 60 billion market capitalizations have been estimated by the fund to fall within four limits. Then, in the course of this ups and downs, what kind of performance is the brokerage research report known for its professional research?

LeTV was listed in August 2010, and by the time of the peak of the bull market in 2015, the stock price rose by a factor of 46 in five years. China Fund Journal reporter passed the statistics of a third-party research report platform. Since the listing of LeTV. As of now, brokerage analysts have released 438 analysis and research reports on LeTV. Among them, there are many CITIC, CICC, Haitong, Huatai and Xingye. , the East, the Yangtze River and other mainstream mainstream brokers.

According to time, the number of research reports in the past five years is roughly as follows: the number of research reports in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are: 53, 47, 58, 41, and 9, respectively. There is also a certain correlation between the number of research reports and the stock price trend of LeTV. In 2013 and 2015, the number of research reports was significantly higher.

Interestingly, in these research reports, almost no sings were seen. Even after LeTV began the capital chain crisis at the end of last year, many brokerage analysts were rated as “overweight” through research reports. In April this year, in the review of LeTV's 2016 annual report, Haitong Securities analysts still said that the company will fully open the globalization process. It is estimated that the net profit for 2017 and 2018 will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan. Rating. I did not expect a loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, which is sad for this analyst. . .

“The company will evolve from chain ecologicalization to node ecologicalization to achieve synergy between scale and strength, and fully open the globalization process. We expect 2017/2018 company net profit to be 1.044 billion yuan, 1.722 billion yuan, overweight rating ”

It is no wonder that some people joked that LeTV.com is more reliable than the research report of LeTV.

  (2) Statistics show: Look at the brokerage research report may not really make money

Recently, there was a very hot article called "Research Release and Stock Return: I finally understand that I can't make money for it...", the research inside is very interesting, and the fund has extracted some:

In terms of absolute returns, analysts recommend stocks with the following rules:

1. After the rise, it is pushed;

2. When you push it, you will see it soon;

3. After falling for about 40 trading days (about 2 months), it began to rebound at the bottom, but 120 trading days (about 6 months) was able to recover.

There is a saying that is also very good: the more popular the votes are, the higher the possibility of being thunder. It seems that it is also appropriate to put this on LeTV.

In 2015, A-shares ushered in a bull market. That is, in this year, LeTV achieved an amazing jump in the stock price of more than 500% in 84 trading days, setting a record high of 89.47 yuan (recovery). From the beginning of this year, the research report on LeTV began to be active in the pen of brokerage analysts with the trend of “brainwashing”. The China Fund Journal reporter took stock of it. In the matter of “lifting the sedan”, the brokerage analyst “has been indispensable” and the viewpoint given is also a “power”.

Let us appreciate it:

  1. It is estimated that LeTV's corresponding market value space will be 347.1 billion in 2017.

  Reality: Today, the market value of 61.2 billion is also estimated by the fund to fall 4 times.

At the time of LeTV's “King of the King” GEM in 2015, a number of brokers gave a very high evaluation of this sudden company, not only raising the rating, but also expecting the market value of LeTV.

For example, Huachuang Securities: released on June 8, 2015, "LeTV: subverting mobile phones and video, the Internet ecological empire is gradually forming", from the title is the fanatical "LeTV fans", the content is also quite amazing:

LeTV's foothold in this phase will be the number of end users of mobile phones and TVs. We expect that the number of TV subscribers will reach 550, 1350, 25.5 million in 15-17, and the number of mobile phone users will reach 300, 1300, 45 million, according to the number of users in 17 years. Calculated with a single-user market value of 4,924 yuan (refer to Xiaomi single-user market value), the corresponding market value space is 347.1 billion.

The fact is that LeTV's current market value is 61.2 billion, which is far from the estimate of the above research report. Not only that, but the funds have already valued 3-4 downs in July, before the suspension on April 17. The stock price is 30.68 yuan. The China Post, Cassie, E Fund and other funds give about 3 down-limit valuations, which are valued according to 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan, and Hua'an Fund gives them a valuation of 20.13 yuan. 4 down limits.

In addition, the analysts of Galaxy Securities gave the recommendation level for the first time in May 2015, and said that they have long been optimistic about the strategic layout of the Internet + era LeTV. The prototype of the company's ecosystem has been basically laid, and the future will enter rapid development and improvement. In the period, it was judged that the market value at the end of 2015 was about 250 billion yuan. In fact, the market value of LeTV's stock price at the time of the year was more than 160 billion.

(Don't say, my face hurts).

  2. The company's net profit for 2017 is expected to be 1.044 billion.

  Reality: Expected loss of 1.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2017

In addition to the forecast of LeTV's market value, brokerage analysts also like to make predictions on LeTV's profitability. However, the plan can't keep up with the changes, and LeTV's performance is once again beyond their imagination.

On October 26, 2016, Huatai Securities issued a research report titled “The internationalization is steadily advancing, and the revenues of terminals and members are doubled”. It is believed that with the expansion of hardware and website traffic, the number of paid members is expected to be realized. It has doubled its growth; at the same time, its international layout strategy of “North Silicon” has gradually been implemented, and it is expected to establish a global linkage ecological network. He also said that the current injection of LeTV's film industry is still in progress, regardless of its commitment performance, the company's net profit is expected to be 750 million yuan, 980 million yuan in 16-17.

In April of this year, LeTV.com disclosed the 2016 annual report. The analysts of Haitong Securities are optimistic that LeTV will fully start the globalization process. It is estimated that the net profit for this year and next year will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan. Realize ecological content structure, ecological platform, ecological terminal, ecological application, ecological organization and ecological marketing, from chain ecologicalization to node ecologicalization, so as to achieve the synergy effect of scale and power, and fully open the globalization process .

In fact, yesterday evening, LeTV announced that it expects a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in July-September and an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion in the first three quarters. The main business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue and membership income all fell sharply.

The company said that due to the financial constraints and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which has an impact on the company's reputation and credit. At the same time, due to the related party debt risk, cash flow tension and the company's supplier cooperation system, the products Negative pressure is exerted on the delivery of the delivery period.

  3, buy buy buy, buy strong!

  Reality: After plunging 63%, there is still a down limit waiting

Buying and buying, most brokers shouted when they recommended LeTV. For example, analysts of Gao Hua Securities, on June 22, 2016, Gao Hua Securities released the LeTV network research report "not only China's NETFLIX-ecosystem has advantages; join the strong buy list", is expected to pay for LeTV in the next three years The number of subscription members will increase from 6 million to 24 million, mainly benefiting from the sales of super mobile phones and super TVs reaching 3 million in 2015.

unstoppable. Since then, the analyst has reaffirmed the "strong buy" rating of LeTV. In the nine negative reports of LeTV, it is still convinced, and in 2016, 9 On the 5th of the month, a research report entitled "Excessive market worries, monetization is about to be realized; reiterated strong buy (abstract)" was published. The most difficult period of the article LeTV has passed. In fact, at that time, LeTV The hardest time has not yet arrived.

The same is Huatai Securities. Since 2015, Huatai Securities has issued 16 research reports on LeTV. However, in 2015 and 2016, Huatai Securities gave LeTV a rating of “Buy”.

In addition, in June 2016, when LeTV was suspended for half a year after the “Resumption of the Century”, many brokers said that LeTV, which the return of the king, would become a strong shot for the GEM and A-share market to regain their upward momentum. Brokers such as Huatai Securities, Gao Hua Securities, CICC, and CITIC Securities have high expectations for their future trends. CITIC Securities believes that LeTV's refinancing has taken an important step. The funds and grain will help the ecological leap and maintain a “buy” rating. CICC is also targeting the target price of 70 yuan.

The facts prove that LeTV has since ceased to be a "nail house." The fund has roughly sorted out the suspension of the next LeTV network in recent years: suspension of trading on December 7, 2015, resumption of trading on June 3, 2016; suspension of trading from July 6, 2016, resumption of trading on July 14, 2016; 2016 The trading will be suspended from December 7, and will resume trading on January 16, 2017. It will be suspended from April 17, 2017.

  (3) The big Vs have also suffocated for LeTV.

In fact, at that time, it was not just the collective climax of major analysts. The industry’s public opinion on LeTV was already one-sided support. So two years ago, on June 24, 2015, Liu Weiwei, who had smashed the myth of "Lantian", released the "LeTV Network Analysis Report: The Burning Money Model Is Unsustainable", questioning the music of users who burned money, and finally When I burn myself, I have also been squandered by many industry veterans, ridiculing Liu Weiwei, not knowing Internet companies, and saying that this is a astounding report, and I feel that I want to be a great company in China. It is easy to be suspected of becoming a profiteer at all times. It is necessary to bear the danger of various policy control at all times, and always accept the question of the so-called experts.

  相关报道>>>

  LeTV Pictures responded to the allegedly concealed book: financial information provided in May

  LeTV has continued to suspend trading for nearly half a year. Suspension of “nail households” has attracted regulatory attention.

  LeTV: Gu Yingqiong was issued a ban by the US court.

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[Extended reading]

  LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion: 7 years of profit almost lost. Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk 40 billion

Lead: Supporting LeTV's market value of 600 billion yuan is a dream?

House seemingly endless rain.

LeTV, which has been suspended for half a year, said that it was still impossible to resume trading on October 17. Then these days, "the accident": 1, the suspension of the reorganization of the target LeTV film, the shareholders said that they can not check the accounts for prosecution; 2, the Hurun Report, the former Hurun Report, the wealth of the owner and founder Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk from 42 billion yuan 95% to 2 billion yuan; 3. Last night, it was estimated that the first three quarters had a huge loss of 1.658 billion yuan to 1.636 billion yuan.

  1, a huge loss of 1 billion yuan in the third quarter

Blue thin mushrooms! Since the suspension of trading on April 17, it is not known when to resume trading. Tonight, LeTV's investors have been hit hard.

LeTV.com announced in the evening that it expects a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in July-September, and an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan to 1.663 billion yuan in the first three quarters, compared with a profit of 490 million yuan in the first three quarters of last year. The main business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue and membership income all fell sharply. The capital chain crisis was again exposed in July, and now it seems to have effectively affected the business performance of LeTV.

The company said that due to the financial constraints and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which has an impact on the company's reputation and credit. At the same time, due to the related party debt risk, cash flow tension and the company's supplier cooperation system, the products Negative pressure is exerted on the delivery of the delivery period.

Figure 1: The first three quarters of the huge loss announcement

Interestingly, in the first three quarters of this year, it lost 1.6 billion yuan, and now the market value is 61.1 billion LeTV, and the LeTV network listed on August 12, 2010, after the listing of 2010-2016 7 years The sum of net profits was only 2.142 billion yuan. If the LeTV network reproduces a huge loss in the fourth quarter, it will really be a 7-year profit from the listing, and it will be lost in one year.

New music, come back from the new.

Table 1: Performance of LeTV Online Market

  2, Jia Yueting wealth shrinks 95%

In line with the crisis of the capital chain, LeTV's huge loss echoes that in the 2017 Hurun Report, which was released yesterday, Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk by 95%, and as a special event, the case of the largest decline in wealth is explained. The following is a review of Hu Runbang’s decline in Jia Yueting’s wealth:

The greatest decline in wealth, Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk by 95% to 2 billion yuan. Since November last year, LeTV has been experiencing problems with outbreaks of funds. Until July this year, the 1.27 billion assets of the Jia Yueting couple and the LeTV system were frozen by the judiciary. At this time, Jia Yueting has pledged almost all of LeTV's equity held by LeTV Holdings to Sun Hongbin's Sunac, and the Shanghai Securities News confirmed that 99% of LeTV's 99.9% market value held by Jia Yueting was judicially frozen. Later, when Jia returned to China, how to fulfill debt obligations became the focus of public discussion. In the past year, Jia Yueting’s Sina Weibo fans have risen to more than 16 million.

Figure 2: Jia Yueting's rich list screenshot

The fund was consulted on the 2016 list, when Jia Yueting’s wealth was 42 billion. After one year, I didn’t say anything, I wished Mr. Jia.

  3, LeTV film was sued: shareholders said that they could not check the accounts

Recently, as the target of LeTV's asset restructuring, LeTV Film has been sued by its own shareholders, and shareholders said that it is unable to access the company's accounts.

The plaintiff's LeTV's shareholder, Beijing Siwei Equity Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership) (referred to as Siwei Partnership), filed a lawsuit against LeTV, which owns 200 million yuan. Siwei Partners, which owns 2.8674% stake in LeTV Pictures, said that Lexmark will not provide shareholders' meeting minutes, board meeting resolutions, financial accounting reports, etc. for the plaintiffs from the date of the shares on June 11, 2015 to the date of prosecution. The lawsuit of Siwei Partnership was filed on June 27, 2017.

Figure 3: Screenshot of the shareholder prosecution

It is worth noting that Siwei Partnership has a background in central enterprises, and CITIC Guoan Fund is an executive partner of Beijing Siwei. Founded in 2014, CITIC Guoan Fund is a professional fund management company initiated by CITIC Guoan Group, a subsidiary of the central enterprise CITIC Group. CITIC Guoan Group holds 40% of the shares and is the largest shareholder.

In this regard, LeTV Pictures also clarified the announcement tonight by LeTV. The announcement stated that since its establishment, LeTV has always complied with relevant laws and regulations in the company's business process, and has requirements for shareholders to access the company's financial and operational information. Always actively cooperate.

“Because the company is in the process of major asset restructuring, based on the management requirements for inside information disclosure, we have provided financial statements, accounting books and corporate governance documents to Beijing Siwei (Siwei Partnership) in May 2017. Necessary information."

  4, suspension of trading for half a year or unable to resume trading: major no precedent matters

LeTV.com announced on October 10 that LeTV has made no major precedent for the major asset restructuring of LeTV. Therefore, it is not expected to disclose the plan and apply for resumption before October 16. That is to say, the original suspension of trading for 3 months, the suspension of trading for 6 months, and now 6 months has arrived, still can not resume trading, because: there are no precedent matters.

So what is this major unpredictable thing? It is LeTV's issuance of shares in LeTV and the payment of cash to purchase assets and raise matching funds involving the company's major asset restructuring. Although many listed companies have seen asset restructuring, they can't say who is right or not. There is no major precedent. From the review of LeTV's film industry that began in May 2016, there should be few precedents in terms of time.

LeTV said that in order to protect the interests of investors, the company's stock will continue to be suspended from October 17, 2017.

Figure 4: LeTV's suspension notice

  5, when Jia Yueting returned to China or question

Although Sun Hongbin, the real controller of Sunac China, played the white knight and strategically invested in the LeTV crisis, he has now become the chairman of LeTV. It has a substantial impact on the management of LeTV. However, from the current situation, the crisis of the entire LeTV system has not been completely lifted.

As the founder and actual controller of the LeTV department, Jia Yueting went to the United States in July this year, and has not returned yet. It is necessary to ring the bell to solve the bell. When Jia Yueting returned to China, he also received much attention. When Jia Yueting was just out of the country, there was news that he would return to China next week. Now, after a week and a week, there is only one paragraph left to return to Jia Yueting next week. It is also considered to be a big deal with top companies.

"I don't know the beauty of the wife Liu Qiangdong, the repentance of Ali Jackma, the absence of all Wang Jianlin, the family's ordinary Ma Huateng, and the return to China Jia Yueting next week."

  6, the broker has not been published for half a year

As a music network that was once hailed by the sky, the funds have already valued 3-4 downs in July. The stock price before the suspension on April 17 was 30.68 yuan, given by China Post, Jiashi, Yifangda and other funds. About 3 down-limit valuations are valued at 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan, and Hua'an Fund is valued at 20.13 yuan, equivalent to 4 down limits.

In addition to the buyer’s fund-raising actions, the seller’s brokerage analysts who have exerted influence through the research report are now silent. China Fund News reporters through a third-party platform query, after the release of the 2016 annual report and the quarterly report in April this year, one or two brokers commented, and then did not see the Chinese promotion report on LeTV.

Figure 4: LeTV research report

In domestic brokerage research reports, I have always seen more. In many reviews and research reports since this year, brokerage analysts are still giving an overweight rating, and some people expect LeTV to make a profit of 1 billion yuan this year. Losing 1.6 billion yuan.

Figure 5: The brokerage research report introduces LeTV

Figure 6: The brokerage research report introduces LeTV

(Source: China Fund News)

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Published on 2017-10-15 08:13:26
                            Delisting! ! !
Published on 2017-10-15 08:14:03
                            Ah, it was a junk stock!
Published on 2017-10-15 08:14:15
Published on 2017-10-15 08:14:45
                            What are the faces? They are all called for the caller.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:15:35
                            10 down limits
Published on 2017-10-15 08:16:53
Published on 2017-10-15 08:17:07
                            People don't understand? Cheated.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:17:18
                            You said that 4 is 4, is this not a shameless rumor, no king! ! Anyone else,,,,
If you say that 40 is reasonable, it is in line with Wang Fa,,,
Published on 2017-10-15 08:18:44
                            Incapable of spitting, it is not reliable to see the research report. This is the case at the beginning of the stock market.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:19:49
                            The relative contrarian is bullish or bearish, and it is all to be sprayed. The high bullishness is generally a flicker! How do you go up, how often will come down.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:20:49
                            Is the analyst in the Chinese stock market real? It’s all called us to take a small take-over
Published on 2017-10-15 08:21:03
Published on 2017-10-15 08:22:38
                            The research report is written by unscrupulous analysts in cooperation with the organization!
Published on 2017-10-15 08:23:07
                            To implement a blacklist system
Published on 2017-10-15 08:23:14
                            LeTV has a market capitalization of 10 billion, no more.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:25:32
                            Liars and black mouths are invincible
Published on 2017-10-15 08:25:37
                            Please see if the research report only loses money. Please raise your hand.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:26:47
                            If the resumption of trading is not four downs, is it not a rumor?
Published on 2017-10-15 08:27:21
                            Therefore, the stocks can not rely on any analyst stocks, no fees to listen to as a reference, no stock gods, no one will send money, but also rely on their own experience and luck, Xiaosan has no other way.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:29:37
                            Four downswings are a bit beautiful
Published on 2017-10-15 08:30:59
                            This stock should be the end of the delisting.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:31:08
                            The government advocates value investing to be valuable. The hot money is closed and the market is sold to whom? Is it sold to poor retail brothers? The hot money comes quickly, the shipment is fast, and the loss is suffering from the retail brothers? Knowing this, why should we chase hot money? Why not low-profile layout such as 601678 Binhua shares such as low price-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, high net assets, high undivided profits, high provident fund, good industry prospects, and small and medium-cap stocks with persistent performance growth?
Published on 2017-10-15 08:33:55
                            I guess I have to withdraw from the market. I don’t know if there are retail investors. I am really sorry for them.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:34:11
                            4 down? I think how can I get 40 down? Conscience!
Published on 2017-10-15 08:35:08
                            Chatting in the office, talking about love, and taking a 3000-paying person to write a so-called research report, you also believe?
Published on 2017-10-15 08:35:13
                            The announcement is a late news, and the research report is a report on the study of cutting amaranth. I never look at it.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:35:16
                            Never believed that those research reports are just speculations, probabilities
Published on 2017-10-15 08:36:02
                            Therefore, the research report should be filed by the CSRC. It should affect the periodic evaluation of the assessment and rating of each brokerage.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:36:26
                            Stock market story: Escape Lao Lai uses fake divorce to defraud the supervision and let his wife and children leave the country to enter the United States.
Published on 2017-10-15 08:37:23
Shangguan Feifei :LeTV has a market capitalization of 10 billion, no more.
                            Sell ​​you
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Source: China Fund News Editor: Eastern Fortune Network

K map 300104_2

  Lead: It is common for the research report to be beaten. It is too embarrassing to meet LeTV!

It is said that brokerage analysts are destined to be a face-fighting profession. The stock price is so predictable, it is even more troublesome to hit a mine. China Fund News reporter, today through the performance of a "lei" stocks to re-wind, the past optimistic buy and buy research report, looking back, not really want to face analysts, but to sum up lessons, everyone more Good investment in the future.

  (1) You push me to push together: big brokers have pushed the music network before

Everyone knows the news. LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion in the first three quarters of this year. If LeTV is still in a big loss in the fourth quarter, it may be worth a year to lose money in seven years. However, this article does not discuss this matter. Let's take a look at the controversial LeTV network, which has been questioned since its listing. However, all the way has been triumphant, and the ecologicalization has also suffocated the market as a dream. The market value is as high as more than 160 billion yuan. In the midst of liquidity and public opinion, more than 60 billion market capitalizations have been estimated by the fund to fall within four limits. Then, in the course of this ups and downs, what kind of performance is the brokerage research report known for its professional research?

LeTV was listed in August 2010, and by the time of the peak of the bull market in 2015, the stock price rose by a factor of 46 in five years. China Fund Journal reporter passed the statistics of a third-party research report platform. Since the listing of LeTV. As of now, brokerage analysts have released 438 analysis and research reports on LeTV. Among them, there are many CITIC, CICC, Haitong, Huatai and Xingye. , the East, the Yangtze River and other mainstream mainstream brokers.

According to time, the number of research reports in the past five years is roughly as follows: the number of research reports in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are: 53, 47, 58, 41, and 9, respectively. There is also a certain correlation between the number of research reports and the stock price trend of LeTV. In 2013 and 2015, the number of research reports was significantly higher.

Interestingly, in these research reports, almost no sings were seen. Even after LeTV began the capital chain crisis at the end of last year, many brokerage analysts were rated as “overweight” through research reports. In April this year, in the review of LeTV's 2016 annual report, Haitong Securities analysts still said that the company will fully open the globalization process. It is estimated that the net profit for 2017 and 2018 will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan. Rating. I did not expect a loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, which is sad for this analyst. . .

“The company will evolve from chain ecologicalization to node ecologicalization to achieve synergy between scale and strength, and fully open the globalization process. We expect 2017/2018 company net profit to be 1.044 billion yuan, 1.722 billion yuan, overweight rating ”

It is no wonder that some people joked that LeTV.com is more reliable than the research report of LeTV.

  (2) Statistics show: Look at the brokerage research report may not really make money

Recently, there was a very hot article called "Research Release and Stock Return: I finally understand that I can't make money for it...", the research inside is very interesting, and the fund has extracted some:

In terms of absolute returns, analysts recommend stocks with the following rules:

1. After the rise, it is pushed;

2. When you push it, you will see it soon;

3. After falling for about 40 trading days (about 2 months), it began to rebound at the bottom, but 120 trading days (about 6 months) was able to recover.

There is a saying that is also very good: the more popular the votes are, the higher the possibility of being thunder. It seems that it is also appropriate to put this on LeTV.

In 2015, A-shares ushered in a bull market. That is, in this year, LeTV achieved an amazing jump in the stock price of more than 500% in 84 trading days, setting a record high of 89.47 yuan (recovery). From the beginning of this year, the research report on LeTV began to be active in the pen of brokerage analysts with the trend of “brainwashing”. The China Fund Journal reporter took stock of it. In the matter of “lifting the sedan”, the brokerage analyst “has been indispensable” and the viewpoint given is also a “power”.

Let us appreciate it:

  1. It is estimated that LeTV's corresponding market value space will be 347.1 billion in 2017.

  Reality: Today, the market value of 61.2 billion is also estimated by the fund to fall 4 times.

At the time of LeTV's “King of the King” GEM in 2015, a number of brokers gave a very high evaluation of this sudden company, not only raising the rating, but also expecting the market value of LeTV.

For example, Huachuang Securities: released on June 8, 2015, "LeTV: subverting mobile phones and video, the Internet ecological empire is gradually forming", from the title is the fanatical "LeTV fans", the content is also quite amazing:

LeTV's foothold in this phase will be the number of end users of mobile phones and TVs. We expect that the number of TV subscribers will reach 550, 1350, 25.5 million in 15-17, and the number of mobile phone users will reach 300, 1300, 45 million, according to the number of users in 17 years. Calculated with a single-user market value of 4,924 yuan (refer to Xiaomi single-user market value), the corresponding market value space is 347.1 billion.

The fact is that LeTV's current market value is 61.2 billion, which is far from the estimate of the above research report. Not only that, but the funds have already valued 3-4 downs in July, before the suspension on April 17. The stock price is 30.68 yuan. The China Post, Cassie, E Fund and other funds give about 3 down-limit valuations, which are valued according to 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan, and Hua'an Fund gives them a valuation of 20.13 yuan. 4 down limits.

In addition, the analysts of Galaxy Securities gave the recommendation level for the first time in May 2015, and said that they have long been optimistic about the strategic layout of the Internet + era LeTV. The prototype of the company's ecosystem has been basically laid, and the future will enter rapid development and improvement. In the period, it was judged that the market value at the end of 2015 was about 250 billion yuan. In fact, the market value of LeTV's stock price at the time of the year was more than 160 billion.

(Don't say, my face hurts).

  2. The company's net profit for 2017 is expected to be 1.044 billion.

  Reality: Expected loss of 1.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2017

In addition to the forecast of LeTV's market value, brokerage analysts also like to make predictions on LeTV's profitability. However, the plan can't keep up with the changes, and LeTV's performance is once again beyond their imagination.

On October 26, 2016, Huatai Securities issued a research report titled “The internationalization is steadily advancing, and the revenues of terminals and members are doubled”. It is believed that with the expansion of hardware and website traffic, the number of paid members is expected to be realized. It has doubled its growth; at the same time, its international layout strategy of “North Silicon” has gradually been implemented, and it is expected to establish a global linkage ecological network. He also said that the current injection of LeTV's film industry is still in progress, regardless of its commitment performance, the company's net profit is expected to be 750 million yuan, 980 million yuan in 16-17.

In April of this year, LeTV.com disclosed the 2016 annual report. The analysts of Haitong Securities are optimistic that LeTV will fully start the globalization process. It is estimated that the net profit for this year and next year will be 1.044 billion yuan and 1.722 billion yuan. Realize ecological content structure, ecological platform, ecological terminal, ecological application, ecological organization and ecological marketing, from chain ecologicalization to node ecologicalization, so as to achieve the synergy effect of scale and power, and fully open the globalization process .

In fact, yesterday evening, LeTV announced that it expects a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in July-September and an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan -1.663 billion in the first three quarters. The main business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue and membership income all fell sharply.

The company said that due to the financial constraints and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which has an impact on the company's reputation and credit. At the same time, due to the related party debt risk, cash flow tension and the company's supplier cooperation system, the products Negative pressure is exerted on the delivery of the delivery period.

  3, buy buy buy, buy strong!

  Reality: After plunging 63%, there is still a down limit waiting

Buying and buying, most brokers shouted when they recommended LeTV. For example, analysts of Gao Hua Securities, on June 22, 2016, Gao Hua Securities released the LeTV network research report "not only China's NETFLIX-ecosystem has advantages; join the strong buy list", is expected to pay for LeTV in the next three years The number of subscription members will increase from 6 million to 24 million, mainly benefiting from the sales of super mobile phones and super TVs reaching 3 million in 2015.

unstoppable. Since then, the analyst has reaffirmed the "strong buy" rating of LeTV. In the nine negative reports of LeTV, it is still convinced, and in 2016, 9 On the 5th of the month, a research report entitled "Excessive market worries, monetization is about to be realized; reiterated strong buy (abstract)" was published. The most difficult period of the article LeTV has passed. In fact, at that time, LeTV The hardest time has not yet arrived.

The same is Huatai Securities. Since 2015, Huatai Securities has issued 16 research reports on LeTV. However, in 2015 and 2016, Huatai Securities gave LeTV a rating of “Buy”.

In addition, in June 2016, when LeTV was suspended for half a year after the “Resumption of the Century”, many brokers said that LeTV, which the return of the king, would become a strong shot for the GEM and A-share market to regain their upward momentum. Brokers such as Huatai Securities, Gao Hua Securities, CICC, and CITIC Securities have high expectations for their future trends. CITIC Securities believes that LeTV's refinancing has taken an important step. The funds and grain will help the ecological leap and maintain a “buy” rating. CICC is also targeting the target price of 70 yuan.

The facts prove that LeTV has since ceased to be a "nail house." The fund has roughly sorted out the suspension of the next LeTV network in recent years: suspension of trading on December 7, 2015, resumption of trading on June 3, 2016; suspension of trading from July 6, 2016, resumption of trading on July 14, 2016; 2016 The trading will be suspended from December 7, and will resume trading on January 16, 2017. It will be suspended from April 17, 2017.

  (3) The big Vs have also suffocated for LeTV.

In fact, at that time, it was not just the collective climax of major analysts. The industry’s public opinion on LeTV was already one-sided support. So two years ago, on June 24, 2015, Liu Weiwei, who had smashed the myth of "Lantian", released the "LeTV Network Analysis Report: The Burning Money Model Is Unsustainable", questioning the music of users who burned money, and finally When I burn myself, I have also been squandered by many industry veterans, ridiculing Liu Weiwei, not knowing Internet companies, and saying that this is a astounding report, and I feel that I want to be a great company in China. It is easy to be suspected of becoming a profiteer at all times. It is necessary to bear the danger of various policy control at all times, and always accept the question of the so-called experts.

Related reports>>>

  LeTV Pictures responded to the allegedly concealed book: financial information provided in May

  LeTV has continued to suspend trading for nearly half a year. Suspension of “nail households” has attracted regulatory attention.

  LeTV: Gu Yingqiong was issued a ban by the US court.

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[Extended reading]

  LeTV has a huge loss of 1.6 billion: 7 years of profit almost lost. Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk 40 billion

Lead: Supporting LeTV's market value of 600 billion yuan is a dream?

House seemingly endless rain.

LeTV, which has been suspended for half a year, said that it was still impossible to resume trading on October 17. Then these days, "the accident": 1, the suspension of the reorganization of the target LeTV film, the shareholders said that they can not check the accounts for prosecution; 2, the Hurun Report, the former Hurun Report, the wealth of the owner and founder Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk from 42 billion yuan 95% to 2 billion yuan; 3. Last night, it was estimated that the first three quarters had a huge loss of 1.658 billion yuan to 1.636 billion yuan.

  1, a huge loss of 1 billion yuan in the third quarter

Blue thin mushrooms! Since the suspension of trading on April 17, it is not known when to resume trading. Tonight, LeTV's investors have been hit hard.

LeTV.com announced in the evening that it expects a loss of 1.02 billion yuan in July-September, and an estimated loss of 1.658 billion yuan to 1.663 billion yuan in the first three quarters, compared with a profit of 490 million yuan in the first three quarters of last year. The main business, advertising revenue, corporate terminal revenue and membership income all fell sharply. The capital chain crisis was again exposed in July, and now it seems to have effectively affected the business performance of LeTV.

The company said that due to the financial constraints and liquidity of related parties, the public opinion continued to ferment and expand, which has an impact on the company's reputation and credit. At the same time, due to the related party debt risk, cash flow tension and the company's supplier cooperation system, the products Negative pressure is exerted on the delivery of the delivery period.

Figure 1: The first three quarters of the huge loss announcement

Interestingly, in the first three quarters of this year, it lost 1.6 billion yuan, and now the market value is 61.1 billion LeTV, and the LeTV network listed on August 12, 2010, after the listing of 2010-2016 7 years The sum of net profits was only 2.142 billion yuan. If the LeTV network reproduces a huge loss in the fourth quarter, it will really be a 7-year profit from the listing, and it will be lost in one year.

New music, come back from the new.

Table 1: Performance of LeTV Online Market

  2, Jia Yueting wealth shrinks 95%

In line with the crisis of the capital chain, LeTV's huge loss echoes that in the 2017 Hurun Report, which was released yesterday, Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk by 95%, and as a special event, the case of the largest decline in wealth is explained. The following is a review of Hu Runbang’s decline in Jia Yueting’s wealth:

The greatest decline in wealth, Jia Yueting's wealth has shrunk by 95% to 2 billion yuan. Since November last year, LeTV has been experiencing problems with outbreaks of funds. Until July this year, the 1.27 billion assets of the Jia Yueting couple and the LeTV system were frozen by the judiciary. At this time, Jia Yueting has pledged almost all of LeTV's equity held by LeTV Holdings to Sun Hongbin's Sunac, and the Shanghai Securities News confirmed that 99% of LeTV's 99.9% market value held by Jia Yueting was judicially frozen. Later, when Jia returned to China, how to fulfill debt obligations became the focus of public discussion. In the past year, Jia Yueting’s Sina Weibo fans have risen to more than 16 million.

Figure 2: Jia Yueting's rich list screenshot

The fund was consulted on the 2016 list, when Jia Yueting’s wealth was 42 billion. After one year, I didn’t say anything, I wished Mr. Jia.

  3, LeTV film was sued: shareholders said that they could not check the accounts

Recently, as the target of LeTV's asset restructuring, LeTV Film has been sued by its own shareholders, and shareholders said that it is unable to access the company's accounts.

The plaintiff's LeTV's shareholder, Beijing Siwei Equity Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership) (referred to as Siwei Partnership), filed a lawsuit against LeTV, which owns 200 million yuan. Siwei Partners, which owns 2.8674% stake in LeTV Pictures, said that Lexmark will not provide shareholders' meeting minutes, board meeting resolutions, financial accounting reports, etc. for the plaintiffs from the date of the shares on June 11, 2015 to the date of prosecution. The lawsuit of Siwei Partnership was filed on June 27, 2017.

Figure 3: Screenshot of the shareholder prosecution

It is worth noting that Siwei Partnership has a background in central enterprises, and CITIC Guoan Fund is an executive partner of Beijing Siwei. Founded in 2014, CITIC Guoan Fund is a professional fund management company initiated by CITIC Guoan Group, a subsidiary of the central enterprise CITIC Group. CITIC Guoan Group holds 40% of the shares and is the largest shareholder.

In this regard, LeTV Pictures also clarified the announcement tonight by LeTV. The announcement stated that since its establishment, LeTV has always complied with relevant laws and regulations in the company's business process, and has requirements for shareholders to access the company's financial and operational information. Always actively cooperate.

“Because the company is in the process of major asset restructuring, based on the management requirements for inside information disclosure, we have provided financial statements, accounting books and corporate governance documents to Beijing Siwei (Siwei Partnership) in May 2017. Necessary information."

  4, suspension of trading for half a year or unable to resume trading: major no precedent matters

LeTV.com announced on October 10 that LeTV has made no major precedent for the major asset restructuring of LeTV. Therefore, it is not expected to disclose the plan and apply for resumption before October 16. That is to say, the original suspension of trading for 3 months, the suspension of trading for 6 months, and now 6 months has arrived, still can not resume trading, because: there are no precedent matters.

So what is this major unpredictable thing? It is LeTV's issuance of shares in LeTV and the payment of cash to purchase assets and raise matching funds involving the company's major asset restructuring. Although many listed companies have seen asset restructuring, they can't say who is right or not. There is no major precedent. From the review of LeTV's film industry that began in May 2016, there should be few precedents in terms of time.

LeTV said that in order to protect the interests of investors, the company's stock will continue to be suspended from October 17, 2017.

Figure 4: LeTV's suspension notice

  5, when Jia Yueting returned to China or question

Although Sun Hongbin, the real controller of Sunac China, played the white knight and strategically invested in the LeTV crisis, he has now become the chairman of LeTV. It has a substantial impact on the management of LeTV. However, from the current situation, the crisis of the entire LeTV system has not been completely lifted.

As the founder and actual controller of the LeTV department, Jia Yueting went to the United States in July this year, and has not returned yet. It is necessary to ring the bell to solve the bell. When Jia Yueting returned to China, he also received much attention. When Jia Yueting was just out of the country, there was news that he would return to China next week. Now, after a week and a week, there is only one paragraph left to return to Jia Yueting next week. It is also considered to be a big deal with top companies.

"I don't know the beauty of the wife Liu Qiangdong, the repentance of Ali Jackma, the absence of all Wang Jianlin, the family's ordinary Ma Huateng, and the return to China Jia Yueting next week."

  6, the broker has not been published for half a year

As a music network that was once hailed by the sky, the funds have already valued 3-4 downs in July. The stock price before the suspension on April 17 was 30.68 yuan, given by China Post, Jiashi, Yifangda and other funds. About 3 down-limit valuations are valued at 22.37 yuan or 22.05 yuan, and Hua'an Fund is valued at 20.13 yuan, equivalent to 4 down limits.

In addition to the buyer’s fund-raising actions, the seller’s brokerage analysts who have exerted influence through the research report are now silent. China Fund News reporters through a third-party platform query, after the release of the 2016 annual report and the quarterly report in April this year, one or two brokers commented, and then did not see the Chinese promotion report on LeTV.

Figure 4: LeTV research report

In domestic brokerage research reports, I have always seen more. In many reviews and research reports since this year, brokerage analysts are still giving an overweight rating, and some people expect LeTV to make a profit of 1 billion yuan this year. Losing 1.6 billion yuan.

Figure 5: The brokerage research report introduces LeTV

Figure 6: The brokerage research report introduces LeTV

(Source: China Fund News)

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