Kweichow Moutai opened slightly higher by 0.7% today, and its share price hit another record high. The total market value exceeded 700 billion yuan. At the close, Guizhou Maotai rose 0.82% to 560.69 yuan, with a market value of 704.3 billion yuan.
Have a math problem:
Two or three years ago, the sale of 5 to 6 shares of Kweichow Moutai stock, the proceeds can buy a bottle of flying Maotai;
Now, only two stocks of 3 to 3 shares of Kweichow Moutai will be sold, and the proceeds will be able to purchase a bottle of flying Maotai.
During this period, the price of Moutai and the stock price of Maotai are rising. Is the price of Moutai rising more or is the stock price of Moutai increasing?
For A shares, the answer is usually not as conventional as imagined.
Moutai's share price continued to maintain a relatively strong trend, closing down slightly by 0.27% on the 12th, and hit an all-time high of 551.25 yuan on the 11th.
3 Moutai stocks can buy a bottle of Moutai. A Guizhou Moutai can buy almost all liquor listed companies.
The price of Moutai is getting more and more expensive, and the stock price of Maotai is not too much.
On October 12, Guizhou Moutai stock hit an intraday high of 551.25 yuan, once again set a new record high, which is the first time Maotai stock price broke through the 550 yuan mark.
If the current 53-degree flying Maotai 1299 yuan / bottle terminal price calculation, the current purchase of 2 shares ~ 3 shares of Guizhou Maotai stock is basically the price of a bottle of Moutai.
Since the recovery of the liquor industry, the Moutai terminal price and the Moutai share price have generally shown an upward trend, but the Moutai share price seems to rise faster.
At the beginning of 2014, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai once touched the multi-year low of 118.01 yuan. Since then, the overall trend has continued to rise. After the stock market crash, it has adjusted once, but it quickly resumed its upward trend. If the factor of interest is taken into account, the lowest price since 2014 is the largest. The increase was over 500%, and the increase was second only to Shuijingfang in the Shenwan liquor industry. The increase in the price of Maotai wine was obviously far less than the stock price increase.
According to public information, in the long period from 2014 to 2015, ordinary flying Moutai is not “expensive”. For this reason, Maotai sales company once implemented a price insuring strategy, requiring the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai to be no less than 850 yuan. The price is more than 1,000 yuan. At that time, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai was below 200 yuan most of the time. Even if it was calculated based on the stock price of 200 yuan, at least 5 shares to 6 shares of Kweichow Moutai will be sold, and the proceeds will be able to "replace" a bottle of ordinary Moutai.
3 shares can buy a bottle of 53-degree flying Maotai and there is still left, if you look at the market value, Guizhou Moutai can buy the entire liquor plate.
As of the close of October 12, the total market value of Kweichow Moutai was 683.485 billion yuan, ranking eighth. The market value exceeded the traditional weighted shares of Sinopec, China Shenhua, China CRRC and SAIC, and even exceeded the big banks. Including China Merchants Bank, Bank of Communications, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial Bank.
Overall, the data shows that the total market value of A shares is about 57.58 trillion yuan, and the market value of Kerry Moutai is 683.485 billion, accounting for 1.19% of the A-share market. Kweichow Moutai is already a super-weight stock in the A-share market. The market value of the whole market is not obvious enough, so it is better to compare the companies.
According to the latest closing data, in the Shenwan liquor sub-sector, after removing Kweichow Moutai, the total market value of the remaining 17 listed liquor companies was 716.469 billion yuan, only higher than the total market value of Guizhou Maotai was 32.984 billion yuan. In other words, the sale of Guizhou Maotai, almost can buy the entire liquor plate.
The stock price continues to innovate and the problem of "waste shortage" in Maotai is to be solved
Corresponding to the record highs in stock prices, Moutai is in short supply.
Taking 53-degree flying Maotai as an example, it is understood that the ex-factory price of this wine has been 819 yuan/bottle this year. In March of this year, the market price of the wine was as high as 1,600 yuan per bottle, the difference between the two was as high as 800 yuan / bottle. In order to stabilize the price of wine, on May 3 this year, Guizhou Moutai Group launched the “official guide retail price of 1,299 yuan / bottle”.
In order to break the price increase expectations, Guizhou Moutai continues to increase supply. Among them, in order to meet the demand of the peak season, Maotai has also continuously adjusted the amount of double-day delivery of the Mid-Autumn National Day, from 2,000 tons to 6,200 tons, which is twice the number in the same period last year.
Although the price has stabilized, the long-standing "wine shortage" has not been resolved. In March of this year, Mao Baofang, the general manager of Maotai, admitted that in the first half of this year, the 53-degree Moutai that can be put on the market can be adjusted to about 6,500 tons, which can only meet the market demand of 20% to 25%. In the second half of this year, the market demand that can be met is only about 50%.
The reporter inquired about the main e-commerce website and found that the current official price of 53-degree flying Maotai is 1299 yuan, but it needs to be snapped up. In physical stores, it is generally out of stock.
The latest information from Guizhou Maotai Official Mall shows that the current inventory of 53-degree flying Maotai is 0. In addition, the mall also suggested that the product will be replenished at 12:00 on October 13, 2017, each ID is limited to 30 bottles, and the payment will be shipped within 30 days after successful payment.
Thanks to strong market demand, Guizhou Moutai semi-annual report data show that in the first half of this year, the company produced a total of 42198.18 tons of Moutai and a series of wine-based wines; realized operating income of 24.19 billion yuan, an increase of 33.11%; realized operating profit of 16.124 billion yuan. , a year-on-year increase of 26.36%; the net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 11.251 billion yuan, an increase of 27.81%.
In addition, the Moutai sauce fragrant liquor company of Guizhou Maotai Company recently completed the sales task of 4.3 billion yuan for the whole year in advance 100 days. Data show that as of September 19, Moutai sauce fragrant wine company achieved sales revenue of 4.306 billion yuan, an increase of 226%; completed sales of 20.35 million tons, an increase of 153%, the task completion rate of 78%. Among them, Maotai Prince Wine sold 7375 tons and achieved sales of 1.556 billion yuan.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that the company announced in the early stage that the Mid-Autumn National Day has a planned capacity of 6,200 tons during the double festival, plus nearly 3,000 tons of shipments in mid-August to mid-August. The actual shipments in the third quarter are expected to be over 8,500 tons, compared with 5,800 last year. The shipment volume was over 40%. In addition, considering the increase in the price of tons, the growth of the series of wines and the contribution of the financial company's business, it is expected that the growth rate of Q3 revenue will reach 40%-50%, and the annual growth rate will also increase accordingly, surpassing market expectations.
Just! Some brokers raised the target price of Maotai by 110 yuan!
For Moutai's rising share price, the market has been very divided.
The chairman of Shenzhen Dongfang Harbor Investment Management Co., Ltd., but recently published several microblogs, repeatedly mentioned Maotai stocks. He said in Weibo this afternoon that "when the new wealth first shouted 640 yuan high, you dare Don't dare to buy Maotai?" It is quite optimistic.
It is worth noting that in May this year, some netizens posted comments on the Maotai in Weibo. Liang Rui'an, general manager of Shanghai Qijun Asset Management Center, said that if it was less than 600 yuan/share at the end of 2018, it would donate 50. Wan gave charity, but Bin took it in Weibo. "I want to bet 10 million, 100 million! I will contribute to charity!"
In less than half a year, the stock price of Maotai rose by a hundred yuan when it was a bet. The stock price of 600 yuan was only one daily limit, but Bin may be able to steal a smile.
The brokerage research institute recently expressed its optimistic attitude towards the stock price of Moutai.
The China Merchants Securities Research Report even raised its expected earnings per share for 2017 and 2018, and raised its target price to 640 yuan.
On the 12th, Guotai Junan raised the target price of Maotai from 560 yuan to 670 yuan, and raised it by 110 yuan. It said that compared with the rising market in 2009~2012, from the transaction level, the micro-structure of Maotai stock after the current round of increase Good, the stock price is still driving.