Morning card on the 50 index strong, stock index again on the stand 3400 points, insurance, banking sector performance eye-catching. Afternoon, both Shanghai and Shenzhen diving, as of press, stock index fell 0.25%, the GEM means down 1.85%.
Analysts generally agreed that the three quarterly report shows that the fundamentals are stable, the shock of the city up the band is not over, the market stable to the good, the current structure of the A-share market Slow cattle market will continue.
1,Shun Securities:Actively grasp
In general, we believe that the A-share market next week from the emotional, economic expectations, liquidity and risk preferences are very beneficial to see, we continue to optimistic about the October market, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to create another Since January 2016 a new high, it is recommended that investors actively "embrace the red October".
In the structure, we recommend the configuration concerned about the bank, brokerage, steel, coal, communications, new energy vehicles. Short-term theme activity is expected to be high, concerned about the security, Hainan, state-owned enterprise reform and artificial intelligence.
2,Guoxin Securities:Small and medium-sized three quarterly results rebounded significantly
Guoxin Securities said that from the current data, the third quarter of 2017, the net profit of listed companies still maintained a very good performance growth. As the majority of the current market listed companies have not yet released three quarterly or performance notice information, the current point of time statistics of all A-share and board company performance growth and the final situation may not be a small entry and exit. But according to the exchange of information disclosure requirements, the current point of time on the small board and the GEM listed companies have disclosed three quarterly results notice information, from the published data, the third quarter of small plates and GEM listed companies performance growth Significantly pick up.
Configuration, the current major countries, including China, including the PMI index hit a new high in recent years, indicating that the global economy is accelerating recovery. And from the current published three quarterly information of listed companies, the third quarter net profit of listed companies still maintained a very good performance growth, especially small and medium-sized board and the GEM company showed a significant growth rate picked up. We believe that the current A-share market structure of the slow cattle market will continue, the investment direction, the proposed focus on three main lines: First, the traditional industry can fully benefit from the concentration of industrial upgrading enterprises. Second, innovation in the emerging industries brought about by industrial upgrading, such as 5G, new energy vehicles, nuclear power, new materials, artificial intelligence and so on. Third, consumer upgrades, after the cycle focus on the opportunity to focus on the consumer sector.
3,Haitong Securities: why the small plate refers to the first increase this year?
October after the first week of the National Day A-share overall performance is better, the market heavy volume rose, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, small and medium-sized plate refers to a new high during the year, the current market up the band will continue. The market has a phenomenon worth pondering, small and medium-sized board that has been unaware of the card has gone beyond 50, becoming the largest increase this year, the index.
In this regard, Haitong Securities Xun Yugen team pointed out: ① small plate refers to this year has risen to the first, since August gradually catch up with the card 50, from the excellent performance, three quarterly notice shows net profit growth rate of 29.9% The top 29 companies were 46.7%. ② directional reduction and money supply growth shows the policy side and the funds for the good, three quarterly notice shows the fundamentals of a smooth, early in June to shock the city up the band is not over, the market stable to the good. ③ attention to the performance and valuation of the match, optimistic about the financial, consumer white horse, construction, quarterly value of the better growth stocks.
4,Huatai Securities: configuration profit, pay attention to interest rates
Huatai Securities Dai Kang team pointed out that the holiday long-term interest rates rose sharply, reflecting the bond investors to financial deleveraging concerns and confirmation of economic tenacity. We believe that the end of the financial leverage may be slightly accelerated, but only affect the A-share discount rate, while the credit shrinkage damage to the recovery of the basic concerns can be eliminated, should use the shock firmly grasp the main line of corporate earnings repair.
Strategy, the profit is still on the way, continue to focus on the deterministic recovery of the "golden chemical" combination: rare metals (Minmetals rare earth) and electrolytic aluminum (Yunnan aluminum shares); chemical raw materials (Wanhua Chemical); engineering machinery Liugong); Bank (China Merchants Bank); broker (GF Securities).
5,Societe Generale Securities: no fear of high, continue to increase with the financial leader and core assets
Societe Generale Securities Wang Delun team said the index hit a new high, but still no fear of high. In the October monthly report, we stressed that "after the holiday will be more cost-effective time window, A shares or usher in red October" last week, the market really hit a new high this year. 2) economic data will be released, in the first two months after the continuous improvement is not expected, the September data will be large, the data will be held in the first two months, The probability of warming even more than expected, for the market, especially the cycle to provide a positive catalyst; 3) targeted decline, the liquidity will be at least stable. So, do more windows are still over, red October will continue.
Continue to add core assets and financial leaders. Since the beginning of the year, our recommendation on core assets has continued and firm, and even if the third quarter of the plate adjustment to the market was pessimistic, we also insist that "adjustment period is the layout period." At present, Maotai shares have a new high, the core assets will be re-starting after the rest, before the end of the excess earnings. For the financial sector, from April onwards we continue to optimistic about the financial regulation similar to the supply side of the reform of financial stocks. At the end of the year, financial stocks are also suitable for stabilizing volatility, locking gains on the plate, superimposed banks, insurance fundamentals strong, brokers have compensatory growth space, so the configuration cost will continue to improve.
Theme, continue to focus on red flag fluttering. The follow-up index risk is small, and the important meeting before and after the policy is expected to heat up, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to "red flag fluttering" under the state-owned enterprise reform, debt-equity swap, "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 3.0", "all the way" and other theme plates, are expected to see new changes And catalyst.
6,Day wind securities:Pessimistic expectations of repair, cyclical stocks and then welcome the opportunity to rebound, medium-term optimistic about the environmental protection stocks!
Day wind securities pointed out that even if some of the Fed officials are still confident of inflation rebound to continue to boost the market's interest rate expectations, nor will China's monetary policy environment constitutes a substantial impact, a key logic we have already discussed many times : To a certain extent, China's monetary policy environment by the Sino-US spreads (Sino-US 10-year bond yields difference) more constraints, and the US debt yield changes in the direction depends on the future economic growth and inflation expectations, also Is the nominal GDP changes, not the rate hike and the table. There is still no see the trigger to stimulate the US inflation trend of the factors, before this, whether it is a table, raise interest rates, or tax reform, the domestic monetary policy space are still not constrain.
Configuration, pessimistic expected repair, cycle stocks once again usher in a rebound opportunity. Demand to maintain toughness, announced next September economic data, the probability is good. Supply environmental protection limited production, local file rules most than expected. In addition, with the recent steel, cement, paper, aluminum and other spot prices rebound, after the transition pessimistic expectations began to gradually repair, followed by the release of the results recommended to match the valuation of iron and steel, cement, paper, electrolytic aluminum.
7,State Securities:Rebound path still, profit-driven industry configuration
State Securities Li Lifeng team pointed out that into the three quarterly results of listed companies disclosure period, profit-driven industry in October configuration. October is the A shares of three quarterly centralized disclosure period, all the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen three quarterly will be disclosed on October 31 all completed. As of October 15, there have been "a large number of chemical companies, Bohui Paper, Qi Baibin, China Boulder, Red Star Development, Zhongyuan Special Steel, North Building Materials, Wanhua Chemical, Hongda Mining" and a total of 26 listed companies disclosed Three quarterly results. According to the disclosure of listed companies statistics, as of October 15, A-share performance increase in the company has 688, the data is clear to reduce the number of companies (143) nearly 4 times. Benefit from the "three-quarter rise in crude oil prices, supply side reform and consumer upgrades" and other factors, 2017 listed company three quarterly is expected to continue high boom.
Judging from the characteristics of the plate in October, the profit-driven industry configuration (gain excess returns) in October. In the history of the sector in October to obtain excess returns, mostly by the profit (three quarterly) driven. As of October 15, chemical, electronics is the number of three quarterly results pre-increase the number of companies in the first two industries, the industry's pre-increase of the company were 84, 75, together accounted for 23.11% of all pre-increase number of companies, From the industry boom, the three quarterly profit growth chain than the second quarter to enhance the industry, mainly in the "steel, building materials, paper, garden, liquor, home appliances, heavy trucks, auto parts, photovoltaic, LED, optical components" and so on.
Configuration, standing at the current point in time, we continue to optimistic about the A shares of the market view, A shares rebound window is still open. Overseas market positive factors are still: Trump government tax cuts in the delay after six months, the overall framework of tax reform finally available, although the larger than the previous framework to reduce tax cuts, but still the United States over the years The history of the largest tax cuts, is expected in November 13 before the introduction of a formal draft tax reform, the possibility of landing during the year, if the Trump tax reform will be regarded as the US economy into a " The domestic factors in October also showed positive changes: the possibility of a soft landing in the domestic economy in 2017 was large, and the implementation of the "downgrade" would help A-share earnings (ROE) Structural improvement, and the release of the flow of warmer signals, the next period of time the probability of tightening monetary policy is almost zero. As the meeting approaches, reform will raise risk appetite.
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