The Shanghai Composite Index continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, closing down 0.36% to close at 3378.47 points, ending last week's four-day situation. The GEM index was sluggish and closed down 2.25% to close at 1882.69 points. The total turnover of the two cities was 545.8 billion yuan, and most of the industry sectors closed down. Banks and insurance stocks turned against the market, and the role of the support was significant. (Click to view>>Bank stock market Insurance stock market)
This week, analysts focused on analyzing the performance of the small and medium-sized three quarterly reports. The analysts generally believe that the forecast for the third quarter report shows that the fundamentals are stable, the upside of the shock market is not over, the market is stable and the structure of the current A-share market is stable. The slow cow market will continue.
Essence Securities:Actively grasp
The Essence Chen Guo team said that overall, we believe that the A-share market will be very favorable in terms of sentiment, economic expectations, liquidity environment and risk appetite next week. We continue to be optimistic about the October market and expect the Shanghai Composite Index to re-create Since January 2016, the new high, investors are recommended to actively "embrace Red October."
In terms of structure, we recommend focusing on banks, brokerages, steel, coal, communications, and new energy vehicles. The short-term theme activity is expected to be high, focusing on Xiong'an, Hainan, state-owned enterprise reform and artificial intelligence.
Guosen Securities:Small and medium-sized third-quarter report results rebounded significantly
Guosen Securities said that from the current data, the net profit of listed companies in the third quarter of 2017 still maintained a fairly good performance growth rate. As most of the listed companies on the Main Board have not released the third quarterly report or the performance forecast information, the current A-share and main board companies' performance growth rate may be different from the actual situation. However, according to the information disclosure requirements of the exchange, the current small and medium-sized board and the GEM listed companies have already disclosed the performance forecast information of the three quarterly reports. According to the published data, the growth rate of the small and medium-sized board and the GEM listed companies in the third quarter Significantly rebounded.
In terms of configuration, the PMI index of major global countries including China currently hits a new high in recent years, indicating that the global economy is accelerating recovery. From the information of the three quarterly reports of listed companies that have been announced so far, the net profit of listed companies in the third quarter still maintained a fairly good performance growth rate, especially the small and medium-sized board and the GEM companies showed a significant increase in growth rate. We believe that the current slow-moving market in the A-share market will continue. In the investment direction, it is recommended to pay attention to three main lines: First, enterprises in the traditional industry that can fully benefit from industrial concentration. Second, industrial upgrading brought about by innovation drivers in emerging industries, such as 5G, new energy vehicles, nuclear power, new materials, artificial intelligence, etc. The third is the consumption upgrade, after the cycle, focus on the opportunities of the consumer sector.
Haitong Securities: Why the small and medium board refers to the first increase this year
In the first week after the National Day in October, the overall performance of A-shares was better, and the market volume increased. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the small and medium-sized board index all hit new highs in the year. The current upward trend of the market will continue. There is a phenomenon in the market that is worth pondering. The small and medium-sized board has surpassed the SSE 50 unconsciously and has become the index with the biggest increase since this year.
In this regard, Haitong Securities Yu Yugen team pointed out: 1 small and medium board refers to this year's increase has jumped to the first place, since August has gradually surpassed the SSE 50, due to excellent performance, the third quarter report forecast net profit growth rate averaged 29.9%, the increase The top 29 companies have an average value of 46.7%. 2 Directional RRR reduction and money supply growth rate show that the policy and capital orientation are good. The forecast for the third quarter report shows that the fundamentals are stable. The upward wave of the shock market proposed in early June has not ended, and the market is stable. 3 Pay attention to the matching of performance and valuation, and be optimistic about the value growth stocks of finance, consumption white horse, construction and better quarterly report.
Huatai Securities: Configure profitability, pay attention to interest rates
Huatai Securities Daikang team pointed out that the long-term interest rate after the holiday rose sharply, reflecting the concerns of bond investors on financial deleveraging and the confirmation of economic tenacity. We believe that the financial de-leverage may be slightly accelerated at the end of the year, but it only affects the discount rate of A-shares. The fear of credit contraction and the recovery of profitability can be basically eliminated. We should use the shock to firmly grasp the main line of corporate profitability.
In terms of strategy, profitable bulls are still on the way, continue to focus on the “golden chemical” combination of profitable certainty recovery: rare metals (five ore rare earth) and electrolytic aluminum (cloud aluminum shares); chemical raw materials (Wanhua Chemical); construction machinery ( Liugong); Bank (China Merchants Bank); brokerage (Guangfa Securities).
Industrial Securities: no need to fear high, continue to add financial leaders and core assets
The Wang Delun team of Industrial Securities said that the index has reached a new high, but it still does not need to be high. In the October monthly report, we emphasized that “the post-holiday will be a time-price window with a high price/performance ratio, and A-shares will greet the red October.” Last week, the market actually hit a new high for the year. However, there is still no need to fear high at this stage: 1) The important meeting is held soon, the market expectation is expected to increase, the index will remain at least stable; 2) The economic data will be released soon, and the data will be large in September after consecutive failures in the first two months. The probability of warming is even higher than expected, providing positive catalysis for the market, especially for cyclical stocks; 3) After the directional RRR cut, the liquidity will remain at least stable. Therefore, the long window is still not finished, and the red October will continue.
Continue to add core assets and financial leaders. Since the beginning of the year, our recommendation for core assets has continued and is firm. Even if the adjustment of the third quarter sector made the market pessimistic, we insisted that “the adjustment period is the layout period”. At present, the stock price of Maotai has reached a new high, and the core assets will be re-started after the rest, and there will still be excess returns before the end of the year. For the financial sector, we have continued to be optimistic about financial stocks under the financial supervision that are similar to supply-side reforms since April. At the end of the year, financial stocks are also suitable for stabilizing volatility and locking in revenue. The superposition of banks and insurance fundamentals is strong, and brokers have room to make up, so their cost performance will continue to increase.
On the theme, continue to focus on the red flag exhibition. The risk of follow-up index is relatively small, and the policy expectations are warming up before and after important meetings. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the reform of state-owned enterprises, debt-for-equity swaps, “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 3.0” and “Belt and Road” under the “Red Flag Exhibition”, and new changes are expected. And catalyst.
Tianfeng Securities:Pessimistic expectation to repair, cyclical stocks will rebound again, and the environmental stocks are optimistic in the medium term!
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that even if some Fed officials still have confidence in the recovery of inflation and continue to boost the market's interest rate hike expectations, it will not have a substantial impact on China's monetary policy environment. A key logic we have discussed many times before. To a certain extent, China's monetary policy environment is more constrained by the difference between China and the United States (the difference between the yields of the 10-year government bonds in China and the United States), and the direction of change in the yield of US bonds depends on expectations for future economic growth and inflation. It is the change in nominal GDP, not the rate hike and contraction. At present, there is still no factor that triggers the trend of US inflation. Before this, whether it is a contraction, a rate hike, or a tax reform, the domestic monetary policy space does not yet constitute a constraint.
Configuration, pessimistic expectations to repair, cyclical stocks once again usher in a good opportunity to rebound. Demand remains resilient, and September economic data is released next week, with a good probability. Supply of environmental protection and production is resolute, and most of the local documents are more than expected. In addition, with the recent rebound in spot prices of steel, cement, paper, aluminum, etc., the previous pessimistic expectations of the transition began to be gradually restored, and in turn recommended steel, cement, paper, and electrolytic aluminum with performance matching and valuation.
Guojin Securities:The rebound is still the same, profit-driven industry configuration
Guo Li Securities Li Lifeng team pointed out that stepping into the third quarter report of the listed company's performance disclosure period, profit-driven industry configuration in October. October is the concentrated disclosure period of the A-shares three quarterly reports. The three quarterly reports of all listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will be fully disclosed on October 31. As of October 15th, there have been 26 listed companies disclosed by Fangda Chemical, Bohui Paper, Qibin Group, China Boulder, Red Star Development, Zhongyuan Special Steel, Beixin Building Materials, Wanhua Chemical, and Hongda Mining. The results of the three quarterly reports. According to the disclosure of listed companies, as of October 15, there were 688 companies with pre-increased A-share performance, which is nearly four times the number of companies (143 companies). Benefiting from factors such as “three-quarter crude oil price increase, supply-side reform and consumption upgrade”, the three quarterly reports of listed companies in 2017 are expected to continue to be high.
From the characteristics of the historical excess board in the October section, profitability drives the industry allocation in October (to obtain excess returns). Most of the sectors that achieved excess returns in October were driven by earnings (three quarterly reports). As of October 15, the chemical and electronics industries were the top two industries with the largest number of companies in the third quarter. The number of companies in the industry was 84 and 75 respectively, accounting for 23.11% of all pre-increased companies. In terms of industry sentiment, the industry's profit growth rate in the third quarter was mainly concentrated in the “steel, building materials, paper, garden, liquor, home appliances, heavy trucks, auto parts, photovoltaics, LEDs, optical components”.
Configuration, standing at the current time, we continue to be optimistic about the A-share market, the A-share rebound window is still open. The positive factors in the overseas market remain the same: After the Trump administration’s tax reduction plan has been delayed for more than half a year, the overall framework for tax reform has finally come out. Although it has been reduced from the previous large-scale tax reduction, it is still the United States for many years. The largest tax cut in history, it is expected to introduce a formal tax reform draft before November 13, and it is more likely to land during the year. If the Trump tax reform is passed, it will be regarded as a "strong heart" for the US economy. "Needles", Lido equity market, etc.; domestic factors also showed positive changes in October: the possibility of achieving a soft landing in the domestic economy in 2017 is large, and the implementation of "targeted RRR" will help A-share earnings (ROE) The structural improvement and the release of the signal of warmer liquidity, the probability of monetary policy tightening in the future is almost zero. As the conference approaches, reforms will increase risk appetite.
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