Stock index today continued to adjust the trend, closing slightly fell 0.19 percent, to close at 3372.04 points. Market turnover sharply shrinking, the two cities total turnover of only 389.6 billion yuan. Industry plate ups and downs are mixed, coal, nonferrous metals, steel and other cyclical stocks weakened, the concept of housing leasing outbreak. (Click to view >>Housing rental concept stocks Cash flow)
For the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
State Securities:Rebound road still, profit-driven industry configuration
State Securities Li Lifeng team pointed out that into the three quarterly results of listed companies disclosure period, profit-driven industry in October configuration. October is the A shares of three quarterly centralized disclosure period, all the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen three quarterly will be disclosed on October 31 all completed. As of October 15, there have been "a large number of chemical companies, Bohui Paper, Qi Baibin, China Boulder, Red Star Development, Zhongyuan Special Steel, North Building Materials, Wanhua Chemical, Hongda Mining" and a total of 26 listed companies disclosed Three quarterly results. According to the disclosure of listed companies statistics, as of October 15, A-share performance increase in the company has 688, the data is clear to reduce the number of companies (143) nearly 4 times. Benefit from the "three-quarter rise in crude oil prices, supply side reform and consumer upgrades" and other factors, 2017 listed company three quarterly is expected to continue high boom.
Judging from the characteristics of the plate in October, the profit-driven industry configuration (gain excess returns) in October. In the history of the sector in October to obtain excess returns, mostly by the profit (three quarterly) driven. As of October 15, chemical, electronics is the number of three quarterly results pre-increase the number of companies in the first two industries, the industry's pre-increase of the company were 84, 75, together accounted for 23.11% of all pre-increase number of companies, From the industry boom, the three quarterly profit growth chain than the second quarter to enhance the industry, mainly in the "steel, building materials, paper, garden, liquor, home appliances, heavy trucks, auto parts, photovoltaic, LED, optical components" and so on.
Configuration, standing at the current point in time, we continue to optimistic about the A shares of the market view, A shares rebound window is still open. Overseas market positive factors are still: Trump government tax cuts in the delay after six months, the overall framework of tax reform finally available, although the larger than the previous framework to reduce tax cuts, but still the United States over the years The history of the largest tax cuts, is expected in November 13 before the introduction of a formal draft tax reform, the possibility of landing during the year, if the Trump tax reform will be regarded as the US economy into a " The domestic factors in October also showed positive changes: the possibility of a soft landing in the domestic economy in 2017 was large, and the implementation of the "downgrade" would help A-share earnings (ROE) Structural improvement, and the release of the flow of warmer signals, the next period of time the probability of tightening monetary policy is almost zero. As the meeting approaches, reform will raise risk appetite.
Shun Securities: A shares "beautiful 50" into the valuation premium period
It is noteworthy that this round of A shares "beautiful 50" record high order, is still the first leading or oligarchs leading, indicating that "beautiful 50" market is still in the main lift state. Like health services, led by Hengrui medicine, followed by Fosun Pharma, Ireland Eye, East China medicine. Information consumption areas, continue by the BOE A, Hai Kang Wei led by the rise, Han's laser, ZTE, Oufei light, such as precision legislation to follow. Alcohol food field, continue by Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye led up, Haitian taste industry, Yili shares, Angel Yeast to follow. Home appliances automotive field, led by the US group, the boss electrical appliances, flying electronics, SAIC, Sofia, Qingdao Haier to follow. Recently, the financial services of China Ping An, China Merchants Bank, environmental management of the Mongolian grass ecology, oriental gardens, cyclical products (resources and materials) of the North Building Materials, Oriental Rainbow, also gradually higher.
A shares "beautiful 50" high echelon to maintain integrity, however, from the valuation level, the leading shares of PE, PB and other indicators have been gradually pressure. At present, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of these stocks, Guizhou Maotai 36 times, 62 times the Hengrui Pharmaceutical, the United States 19 times the group, Hai Kang Wei as 39 times, AOP 26 East, SAIC Group 12 times, China Ping An 16 times the valuation has begun to go beyond the industry Center. In other words, this round of "beautiful 50" market is different from the previous value discovery and value investment, but a valuation premium rally. However, the stock market sentiment, the valuation premium is not a bad thing. The stock price bubble continues to enlarge, the market sentiment will be more optimistic. In other words, the future rally will be more and more light, the overall trend will continue to strengthen.
Reflected in the index, the leading SSE 50 index, has now entered the bull market trend running state, short term, as long as it does not fall through the 60 day moving average, strong trend will continue, and continue to challenge the new target, the current target of 10 years downward pressure Line, about 15% from the current point. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the Shanghai Composite Index and the small and medium-sized index will gradually follow. Trading strategy, should be around the "beautiful 50" active configuration, you can choose to upgrade consumption, high-end manufacturing, environmental management or resource products and other major areas, continue to adhere to the leading shares strategy.
Societe Generale Securities: no fear of high, continue to increase with the financial leader and core assets
Societe Generale Securities Wang Delun team said the index hit a new high, but still no fear of high. In the October monthly report, we stressed that "after the holiday will be more cost-effective time window, A shares or usher in red October" last week, the market really hit a new high this year. 2) economic data will be released, in the first two months after the continuous improvement is not expected, the September data will be large, the data will be held in the first two months, The probability of warming even more than expected, for the market, especially the cycle to provide a positive catalyst; 3) targeted decline, the liquidity will be at least stable. So, do more windows are still over, red October will continue.
Continue to add core assets and financial leaders. Since the beginning of the year, our recommendation on core assets has continued and firm, and even if the third quarter of the plate adjustment to the market was pessimistic, we also insist that "adjustment period is the layout period." At present, Maotai shares have a new high, the core assets will be re-starting after the rest, before the end of the excess earnings. For the financial sector, from April onwards we continue to optimistic about the financial regulation similar to the supply side of the reform of financial stocks. At the end of the year, financial stocks are also suitable for stabilizing volatility, locking gains on the plate, superimposed banks, insurance fundamentals strong, brokers have compensatory growth space, so the configuration cost will continue to improve.
Theme, continue to focus on red flag fluttering. The follow-up index risk is small, and the important meeting before and after the policy is expected to heat up, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to "red flag fluttering" under the state-owned enterprise reform, debt-equity swap, "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 3.0", "all the way" and other theme plates, are expected to see new changes And catalyst.
Day wind securities:Pessimistic expectations of repair, cyclical stocks and then welcome the opportunity to rebound, medium-term optimistic about the environmental protection stocks!
Day wind securities pointed out that even if some Fed officials still have confidence in the recovery of inflation and thus continue to boost the market's interest rate expectations, it will not have a substantial impact on China's monetary policy environment, a key logic we have already discussed many times : To a certain extent, China's monetary policy environment by the Sino-US spreads (Sino-US 10-year bond yields difference) more constraints, and the US debt yield changes in the direction depends on the future economic growth and inflation expectations, also Is the nominal GDP changes, not the rate hike and the table. There is still no see the trigger to stimulate the US inflation trend of the factors, before this, whether it is a table, raise interest rates, or tax reform, the domestic monetary policy space are still not constrain.
Configuration, pessimistic expected repair, cycle stocks once again usher in a rebound opportunity. Demand to maintain toughness, announced next September economic data, the probability is good. Supply environmental protection limited production, local file rules most than expected. In addition, with the recent steel, cement, paper, aluminum and other spot prices rebound, after the transition pessimistic expectations began to gradually repair, followed by the release of the results recommended to match the valuation of iron and steel, cement, paper, electrolytic aluminum.
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Source: Eastern Fortune Choice, Galaxy Securities, due date: 2017-10-16
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