The Shanghai Composite Index continued to adjust its trend today, closing down slightly by 0.19% to close at 3372.04 points. The market turnover has shrunk sharply, and the total turnover of the two cities was only 389.6 billion yuan. Industry sectors were mixed, with cyclical stocks such as coal, nonferrous metals and steel weakening, and housing leasing stocks outbreak. (点击查看>>House rental concept stock market Cash flow)
For the market trend of the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Guojin Securities:The rebound is still the same, profit-driven industry configuration
Guo Li Securities Li Lifeng team pointed out that stepping into the third quarter report of the listed company's performance disclosure period, profit-driven industry configuration in October. October is the concentrated disclosure period of the A-shares three quarterly reports. The three quarterly reports of all listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will be fully disclosed on October 31. As of October 15th, there have been 26 listed companies disclosed by Fangda Chemical, Bohui Paper, Qibin Group, China Boulder, Red Star Development, Zhongyuan Special Steel, Beixin Building Materials, Wanhua Chemical, and Hongda Mining. The results of the three quarterly reports. According to the disclosure of listed companies, as of October 15, there were 688 companies with pre-increased A-share performance, which is nearly four times the number of companies (143 companies). Benefiting from factors such as “three-quarter crude oil price increase, supply-side reform and consumption upgrade”, the three quarterly reports of listed companies in 2017 are expected to continue to be high.
From the characteristics of the historical excess board in the October section, profitability drives the industry allocation in October (to obtain excess returns). Most of the sectors that achieved excess returns in October were driven by earnings (three quarterly reports). As of October 15, the chemical and electronics industries were the top two industries with the largest number of companies in the third quarter. The number of companies in the industry was 84 and 75 respectively, accounting for 23.11% of all pre-increased companies. In terms of industry sentiment, the industry's profit growth rate in the third quarter was mainly concentrated in the “steel, building materials, paper, garden, liquor, home appliances, heavy trucks, auto parts, photovoltaics, LEDs, optical components”.
Configuration, standing at the current time, we continue to be optimistic about the A-share market, the A-share rebound window is still open. The positive factors in the overseas market remain the same: After the Trump administration’s tax reduction plan has been delayed for more than half a year, the overall framework for tax reform has finally come out. Although it has been reduced from the previous large-scale tax reduction, it is still the United States for many years. The largest tax cut in history, it is expected to introduce a formal tax reform draft before November 13, and it is more likely to land during the year. If the Trump tax reform is passed, it will be regarded as a "strong heart" for the US economy. "Needles", Lido equity market, etc.; domestic factors also showed positive changes in October: the possibility of achieving a soft landing in the domestic economy in 2017 is large, and the implementation of "targeted RRR" will help A-share earnings (ROE) The structural improvement and the release of the signal of warmer liquidity, the probability of monetary policy tightening in the future is almost zero. As the conference approaches, reforms will increase risk appetite.
Essence Securities: A-share "beautiful 50" into the valuation premium period
It is worth noting that the order of the “beautiful 50” innovation of this round of A-shares is still leading by the first leader or the oligarch, indicating that the “beautiful 50” market is still in the lead state. Like the health service field, led by Hengrui Medicine, followed by Fosun Pharma, Aier Ophthalmology, and Huadong Medicine. The field of information consumption continues to be led by BOE A and Hikvision, followed by Han's Laser, ZTE, Ou Feiguang and Lixun Precision. In the field of alcoholic foods, it continued to be led by Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, followed by Haitian Weiye, Yili, and Angel Yeast. In the field of home appliances and automobiles, led by Midea Group, Boss Electric, Feike Electric, SAIC, Sophia, Qingdao Haier, etc. Recently, China Ping An, China Merchants Bank, financial management, grassland ecology, oriental gardens, cycle products (resources and materials), Beixin Building Materials, and Oriental Yuhong have also gradually made new highs.
The E-share “beautiful 50” innovation high echelon remains intact, but from the valuation level, the leading stocks PE, PB and other indicators have gradually become pressure. At present, the dynamic P/E ratio of these stocks is 36 times in Guizhou Moutai, 62 times in Hengrui Medicine, 19 times in Midea Group, 39 times in Hikvision, A26 times in BOE, 12 times in SAIC, and 16 times in Ping An, and the valuation has begun to surpass the industry. Central. In other words, this round of "beautiful 50" market is different from the previous value discovery and value investment, but a round of valuation premium rise. However, valuation stock premiums are not a bad thing for stock market sentiment. As the stock price bubble continues to enlarge, the market sentiment will be more optimistic. In other words, the future market will become more and more light, and the overall trend will continue to strengthen.
Reflected on the index, the leading SSE 50 index has entered the bull market trend. In the short term, as long as it does not fall below the 60-day moving average, the strong trend will continue and the new target will continue to be challenged. The current target points to a 10-year downward pressure. Line, about 15% of the current point. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the Shanghai Composite Index and the small and medium-sized index will gradually follow. In terms of trading strategy, we should actively deploy around “beautiful 50” and choose several areas such as consumption upgrade, middle and high-end manufacturing, environmental governance or resource products, and continue to adhere to the leading stock strategy.
Industrial Securities: no need to fear high, continue to add financial leaders and core assets
The Wang Delun team of Industrial Securities said that the index has reached a new high, but it still does not need to be high. In the October monthly report, we emphasized that “the post-holiday will be a time-price window with a high price/performance ratio, and A-shares will greet the red October.” Last week, the market actually hit a new high for the year. However, there is still no need to fear high at this stage: 1) The important meeting is held soon, the market expectation is expected to increase, the index will remain at least stable; 2) The economic data will be released soon, and the data will be large in September after consecutive failures in the first two months. The probability of warming is even higher than expected, providing positive catalysis for the market, especially for cyclical stocks; 3) After the directional RRR cut, the liquidity will remain at least stable. Therefore, the long window is still not finished, and the red October will continue.
Continue to add core assets and financial leaders. Since the beginning of the year, our recommendation for core assets has continued and is firm. Even if the adjustment of the third quarter sector made the market pessimistic, we insisted that “the adjustment period is the layout period”. At present, the stock price of Maotai has reached a new high, and the core assets will be re-started after the rest, and there will still be excess returns before the end of the year. For the financial sector, we have continued to be optimistic about financial stocks under the financial supervision that are similar to supply-side reforms since April. At the end of the year, financial stocks are also suitable for stabilizing volatility and locking in revenue. The superposition of banks and insurance fundamentals is strong, and brokers have room to make up, so their cost performance will continue to increase.
On the theme, continue to focus on the red flag exhibition. The risk of follow-up index is relatively small, and the policy expectations are warming up before and after important meetings. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the reform of state-owned enterprises, debt-for-equity swaps, “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei 3.0” and “Belt and Road” under the “Red Flag Exhibition”, and new changes are expected. And catalyst.
Tianfeng Securities:Pessimistic expectation to repair, cyclical stocks will rebound again, and the environmental stocks are optimistic in the medium term!
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that even if some Fed officials still have confidence in the recovery of inflation and continue to boost the market's interest rate hike expectations, it will not have a substantial impact on China's monetary policy environment. A key logic we have discussed many times before. To a certain extent, China's monetary policy environment is more constrained by the difference between China and the United States (the difference between the yields of the 10-year government bonds in China and the United States), and the direction of change in the yield of US bonds depends on expectations for future economic growth and inflation. It is the change in nominal GDP, not the rate hike and contraction. At present, there is still no factor that triggers the trend of US inflation. Before this, whether it is a contraction, a rate hike, or a tax reform, the domestic monetary policy space does not yet constitute a constraint.
Configuration, pessimistic expectations to repair, cyclical stocks once again usher in a good opportunity to rebound. Demand remains resilient, and September economic data is released next week, with a good probability. Supply of environmental protection and production is resolute, and most of the local documents are more than expected. In addition, with the recent rebound in spot prices of steel, cement, paper, aluminum, etc., the previous pessimistic expectations of the transition began to be gradually restored, and in turn recommended steel, cement, paper, and electrolytic aluminum with performance matching and valuation.
Rent and sale concept fund
|Fund code||Fund abbreviation||Nearly three months of earnings||Handling fee||operating|
|519091||Xinhua Pan Resources Advantage Mix||8.23%||1.50% 0.15%||buy Account opening|
|090013||Dacheng competitive advantage mix||8.17%||1.50% 0.15%||buy Account opening|
|163409||Xingquan Green Investment Mix (LOF)||7.29%||1.50% 0.15%||buy Account opening|
|001256||Jude preferred growth mix||4.92%||1.50% 0.15%||buy Account opening|
Source: Eastern Fortune Choice data, Galaxy Securities, deadline: 2017-10-16