With the disclosure of the three quarterly reports, the listed companies successively handed over "reports." According to the statistics of the China Securities Journal, as of mid-October, among the listed companies that had announced the performance of the first three quarters, there were approximately 1600 pre-jobs, accounting for 71.74% of the total number of companies disclosed. In addition, of the 51 listed companies that issued the third quarterly report on October 17, 42 companies achieved profit growth in the first three quarters, and 24 companies achieved net profit growth of more than 50% in the first three quarters, of which 19 The company's growth rate exceeds 100%.
Affected by supply-side reform, environmental protection and other factors, building materials, chemicals, steel, papermaking and other industries are the “highlands” of the A-shares' performance for the first three quarters. In addition, the overall performance of SME and GEM continued to improve. With the continuous deepening of the reform of the real economy and capital markets, the "structural adjustment" of the performance of A-share listed companies continued. At the same time, with the disclosure of the three quarterly reports and the clarification of the annual results, the market will usher in the "valuation switch" period at the end of the year.
Small and medium-sized business growth rebound
According to the financial big data terminal, as of October 17, there have been 51 listed companies that have disclosed three quarterly reports. Of the 51 companies listed above, 42 companies achieved profit growth in the first three quarters, and 24 companies achieved net profit growth of more than 50% in the first three quarters of the year, of which 19 companies had growth rates exceeding 100%. In the building materials, chemical and other cyclical industries.
In fact, although the disclosure of the third quarterly report of listed companies has just begun, the performance forecast of the previous three quarterly reports has already been disclosed. To a certain extent, the performance profile of the listed companies in the third quarter has been relatively clear. The research report of Essence Securities at the end of September showed that, from the disclosure of the pre-announcement, the earnings growth of steel and chemical industry continued, and the papermaking and shipping performance was dazzling. As of the disclosure on September 27, the performance of resource products in the upper and middle reaches has been divided. The earnings growth of steel and chemical industries has continued, and the performance of the cyclical stocks has remained at a relatively high level.
With the continued disclosure of information from listed companies, the performance of A shares in the third quarter has continued to be clear. According to the financial big data terminal, as of October 17, there were a total of 2,137 companies that disclosed the forecast of the performance of the three quarterly reports. The basic disclosure of the SME Board and the GEM was completed, and the disclosure rate of the main board was about 30%. The performance forecast indicates that the overall net profit of listed companies maintained a relatively high growth rate. Overall, the disclosure rate of the motherboard is relatively low, and the data comparability is relatively weak, while the small and medium-sized boards maintain high growth, and the growth rate of the Growth Enterprise Board is relatively low. It is worth noting that from the same data, it can be seen that the performance differentiation trend of SME board and GEM is more obvious, and non-weighted stocks perform better relative to heavyweight stocks.
Since the net profit of each company's three quarterly forecast is an interval, the Haitong Securities Strategy Team's arithmetic mean of its upper and lower limits was approximately replaced by the three quarterly net profit value. Based on this analysis, the companies that disclosed the three quarterly advance notices were found. For the sample, the net profit for the first three quarters of the SME Board and GEM grew by 33.9% and 8.1% year-on-year, while the semi-annual report was 23.1% and 5.7%. The SME and GEM mean that the net profit for the first three quarters increased by 26.3% year-on-year, -8.5%. %, while the semi-annual report was 13.6% and -15.2%. Among them, after the startup board eliminated Wen's shares and Dongfang Wealth, the cumulative net profit in the first three quarters increased by 22.6% year-on-year, and the semi-annual report was 23.0%.
It is worth noting that the growth rate of GEM's third-quarter performance rebounded significantly. According to Haitong Securities, GEM's net profit for the third quarter increased by 22.1% year-on-year, after removing Wen's and Dongcai 28.7%, compared with 1.9% and 20.4% in the second quarter. The single-quarter net profit of the small and medium-sized board in the third quarter increased by 42.3% year-on-year, which was further increased from 20.7% in the second quarter.
In terms of industry distribution, Dai Kang, chief strategist of Huatai Securities, said that in the small and medium-sized non-financial A-shares, the performance growth rate was positive for two consecutive quarters, and the stocks that accumulate and accelerate the recovery in the third quarter were concentrated in the upstream colored (rare metals). And midstream manufacturing (new energy equipment, transportation equipment, building decoration) industry.
Annual growth rate is expected to increase significantly
Based on the analysis of the performance of the three quarterly reports, the agency forecasts the annual performance of listed companies. Haitong Securities said that according to historical quarters, net profit accounted for the full-year proportion to calculate the annual growth rate of net profit. The average annual net profit of the small and medium-sized board in the first three quarters of 2012-2016 accounted for 71.5% of the whole year, which was used to calculate the net profit for the small and medium-sized boards in 2017. The year-on-year increase was 25.5%. There are fewer opportunities for GEM companies to boost their performance through outreach expansion. At the end of the year, only a few companies will carry out consolidations. The company's annual net profit distribution will become more uniform. In 2016, after the removal of Wen's shares and Dongfang Wealth from GEM and GEM in 2016, net profit accounted for 68.5% and 61.7% of the total for the first three quarters respectively. It is expected that this ratio will continue to rise in 2017, assuming that the ratio is 70% and 65 respectively. %, then combined with the forecast growth of the three quarterly reports and the 2016 net profit, the year-on-year growth rate of the GEM's 2017 net profit is estimated to be 5.8%, and 16.3% after excluding Wen's shares and Orient Wealth.
Xue Jun, chief analyst of Orient Securities Strategy, said that judging the 2017 A share's annual growth rate range of 15% to 18%, compared to last year has significantly improved, but the 2018 A-share listed company's performance growth rate than 2017 may It will decline, but it is still in positive growth. The period of historical performance growth of A-shares is basically 4-5 years, and the period of rise in recovery will generally not exceed 3 years. The low point of this round of earnings growth is 2015, which began to recover in 2016. Therefore, the high probability of 2017 is the high point of the growth cycle of this round of earnings. In 2018, the absolute value of the growth of A-share performance may decline. However, it is still growing positively.
Of course, in addition to performance growth, investors also pay attention to indicators such as profitability, profitability, and profitability sustainability. Da Kang, chief strategist of Huatai Securities, said that maintaining this round of A-share non-financial corporation ROE will at least restore to the middle of next year's judgment. He believes that the divergence between the previous period's economic and profitability data reflects the shift in the direction of the company's profitability from the previous demand to the supply and demand level. Therefore, it is recommended that more attention be paid to changes in profitability.
According to macro analysts from public offering agencies, listed companies are buoyed by their strong performance in 2017. Only the information observed so far shows that with the macroeconomic stabilization and even phased-than-expected performance, as well as the original source of capital markets, A Stock listed companies are ushering in a strong period of earnings. Since the beginning of this year, the capital market has severely supervised fraudulent restructuring, blind cross-border mergers and acquisitions, over-refinancing, and illegal reductions by shareholders of listed companies. This has led many listed companies to discard the old-fashioned routines of storytelling and concept play and return to doing so. The normal course of strengthening the main business and focusing on excavation of endogenous motives will naturally have a real expression in performance. In addition, supply-side reforms, environmental protection, etc. have also prompted some industries to improve quality and efficiency.
At the end of the year or welcome to the "valuation switch" period
With the disclosure of the three quarterly reports and the clearing of the annual results, in addition to digging beyond expectations for the three quarterly reports, the market will also usher in a period of “valuation switching” at the end of the year.
At the current moment, the three quarterly reports have become an important main line for recent institutional investment. In this regard, GF Securities strategic analyst Liao Ling said that in the short term, investors can refer to the deterministic "anchor" is the three quarterly report, the impact on the market structure will continue until at least the beginning of November. The overall earnings growth of A-shares is not volatile, so the overall contribution to the index is still weak. Investors are more concerned about which sectors have exceeded expectations in performance. Since the three quarterly reports are currently in the centralized announcement period, when the interest rate trend is not mutated and the risk appetite is too “subjective”, the market can only grasp the main lines of the three quarterly reports. Before the performance was fully realized in early November, this trend is expected to continue.
In addition to the excavation of the expected three-quarter report varieties, some analysts are looking forward to the end of the year's valuation to repair the market. Xue Jun, chief analyst of Orient Securities Strategy, said that from the point of view of regular report disclosure, due to issues related to valuation and performance expectations, often from the previous year's November to February next year, this periodic report issued an empty window period. There will be a wave of "valuation switch" market, and its theoretical basis is based on the performance of the first three quarters can basically determine the annual growth rate of performance, advance overdraft expectations under the expected valuation space.
According to the Tianfeng Securities Research Report, the logical reason for continuing to maintain the long-window period in October is that the supply-side environmental supervision and production restriction will continue to exceed expectations and the toughness of the economy will lead to a demand-side decline. Looking at the situation on the supply side and the demand side, the large probability of future industrial product prices and corporate earnings will continue to remain relatively high. Entering the window period of the three quarterly report, it is recommended to pay attention to the sectors where the performance of steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, etc. exceeds expectations. In addition, with the release of the three quarterly reports, the market will have a clear pre-judgment for the performance of next year, so the opportunity for valuation switching will gradually expand.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the market has paid particular attention to the certainty of performance and the matching of valuation and profitability. As a result, investors are paying more attention to financial reports. In this regard, Xue Jun said that with the integration of A-shares and mature markets, the emphasis on performance will only increase will not decrease. A shares are opening up to the outside world, and the pursuit of blue chip stocks may have only just begun. "This year, A-share value investment has returned strongly. Value-based investment is keeping a close eye on performance, valuation, and on the basis of performance, combined with reasonable market valuation, which is also the emergence of value investment." Analysts said the above public offering agency .
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