With the disclosure of the three quarterly, listed companies have to hand over "transcripts." China Securities News reporter found that as of mid-October, has been reported in the first three quarters of the performance of listed companies, about 1,600 performance pre-hi, accounting for 71.74% of the total number of companies have been disclosed. In addition, as of October 17 issued three quarterly 51 listed companies, 42 companies in the first three quarters to achieve a profit growth, 24 companies in the first three quarters to achieve more than 50% of the net profit growth, of which 19 Company growth rate of more than 100%.
By the supply side of the reform, environmental protection and other factors, building materials, chemicals, steel, paper and other industries is the first three quarters of A shares performance "high ground." In addition, the small board, the overall performance of the GEM continued to improve. With the real economy and the pace of reform of the capital market has been deepening, A-share listed companies performance of the "structural adjustment" continued. At the same time, with the three quarterly disclosure and full year performance of the clear, the market will usher in the end of the "valuation switch" period.
Small and medium-sized growth rate rebounded
Financial data terminal display, as of October 17, has accumulated a total of 51 listed companies disclosed three quarterly. Of the 51 companies, 42 companies achieved profit growth in the first three quarters, with more than 50% of the company's net profit growth of more than 50% in the first three quarters of the year, with 19 companies growing more than 100% In the building materials, chemical and other cyclical industries.
In fact, despite the disclosure of three quarterly disclosure of listed companies has just opened, but the previous three quarterly results notice has been disclosed, to some extent, listed companies in the third quarter performance profile has been more clear. Anxin Securities research report at the end of September, from the disclosure of the notice has been the situation, steel, chemical profit growth continued, paper, shipping performance dazzling. As of September 27 disclosure of the situation, the upstream and downstream resource products performance differentiation, steel, chemical profit growth continued, the cycle shares to maintain a high level of performance.
With the continued disclosure of information on listed companies, A shares in the third quarter results continue to clear. Financial data terminal display, as of October 17, disclosed three quarterly results notice of a total of 2137 companies, small plates, the basic disclosure of the GEM, the board disclosure rate of about 30%. Performance notice shows that the overall net profit of listed companies to maintain a high growth, on the whole, the board disclosure rate is low, the data comparability is weak, while the small board to maintain high growth, the growth rate of the GEM is low. It is noteworthy that, from the data can also be seen, small plates and the GEM's differentiation trend is more obvious, and non-weight stocks relative relative heavyweight performance.
As each company three quarterly notice of the net profit is a range, Haitong Securities strategy team to take its upper and lower limit of the arithmetic average is replaced by three quarterly net profit value, which was analyzed and found to disclose the three quarterly notice of the company For the sample, small and medium-sized board, the first three quarters of the net profit of the first quarter growth of 33.9%, 8.1%, while the semi-annual report of 23.1%, 5.7%, small and medium-sized refers to the GEM third quarter net profit rose 26.3% %, And semi-annual report of 13.6%, - 15.2%. Among them, the GEM excluding the shares and the East after the wealth, the first three quarters of cumulative net profit rose 22.6%, while the semi-annual report was 23.0%.
It is noteworthy that the GEM third quarter performance growth rebounded significantly. According to Haitong Securities data, the third quarter net profit of the GEM grew 22.1% year on year, excluding Wen's and East Bank after the 28.7%, while the second quarter were 1.9% and 20.4%. While the small single-quarter single-quarter net profit rose 42.3%, compared with 20.7% in the second quarter to further improve.
In the industry distribution, Huatai Securities chief strategy analyst Dai Kang said that the small non-financial A shares, the performance growth rate for two consecutive quarters is positive, superimposed three quarter results accelerated recovery stocks concentrated in the upstream colored (rare metal) And intermediate manufacturing (new energy equipment, transportation equipment, construction and decoration) industry.
Year performance increase significantly improved
Based on the analysis of the performance of the three quarterly results, the agency forecast the annual results of listed companies. Haitong Securities said that according to the historical quarterly net profit accounted for the proportion of the year to calculate the annual net profit growth, 2012-2016 small plates in the first three quarters of net profit accounted for 71.5% of the annual average, to calculate the 2017 small plate net profit An increase of 25.5%. GEM companies through the extension of expansion to boost performance opportunities less, so at the end only a few companies will carry out the table, the company's annual net profit distribution gradually more uniform. 2016 GEM, GEM excluding Wenshi and Oriental wealth after the first three quarters of net profit accounted for 68.5% year on year, 61.7%, is expected in 2017 the proportion will continue to rise, assuming that the ratio was 70%, 65 %, Then the combination of three quarterly forecast growth and net profit in 2016, projections of 2017 net profit growth of 5.8% year on year, excluding Wen's shares and Oriental wealth after 16.3%.
Oriental Securities strategy chief analyst Xue Jun said to determine the A shares in 2017 annual growth rate of 15% to 18%, compared to last year, significantly improved, but 2018 A-share listed companies performance growth rate than 2017 may Will be down, but still in positive growth. A shares of historical performance growth cycle is basically 4-5 years, of which the recovery period when the recovery is generally not more than 3 years. This round of performance growth rate of the low point for 2015, 2016 began to recover, so the probability of 2017 is the high speed of this round of performance growth cycle, 2018 A-share performance growth rate of absolute value may decline, But still in positive growth.
Of course, in addition to performance growth, investors are also concerned about profitability, profitability, profitability and other indicators. Huatai Securities chief strategy analyst Dai Kang said that to maintain the current round of A shares of non-financial enterprises ROE at least to repair the middle of next year to judge. In his view, the early economic and profit data deviated from the decision to determine the direction of corporate profitability from the previous demand-led transition to the supply and demand level decision, it is recommended to pay more attention to changes in profitability.
Public sector macro analysts said that in 2017 listed companies are ushering in the strong support of performance, only the current observation of the information shows that with the macroeconomic stabilization to warm up and even the stage than expected performance, and the capital market itself, the original source, A Stock listed companies are ushering in a period of profitability. This year, the capital market for the 忽悠 reorganization, blind cross-border mergers and acquisitions, over-refinancing and shareholders of listed companies such as the lack of strict supervision, so many listed companies to throw away the story, play the concept of old routine, return to do Big and strong main business, efforts to tap the endogenous power of the right path up, naturally in the performance will also have a real embodiment. In addition, the supply side of the reform, environmental protection, but also to promote some of the industry to improve quality and efficiency.
End of the year or "valuation switch" period
With the disclosure of three quarterly results and the annual results of the clear, in addition to mining three quarterly than expected varieties, the market will usher in the end of the "valuation switch" period.
Standing at the current point of time, three quarterly as the recent institutional investment important line. In this regard, GF Securities strategist Liao Ling said that in the short term, investors can refer to the deterministic "anchor" is the three quarterly, the impact on the market structure will continue at least until the beginning of November. A share earnings growth as a whole is not volatile, so the overall contribution to the index is still weak, investors are more concerned about which plate in the performance of more than expected possible. As the current three quarterly focus on the announcement period, the interest rate trend is not a sudden change, the risk appetite is too "subjective" when the market can grasp only three quarterly main line. This trend is expected to continue until the performance is fully fulfilled in early November.
In addition to three quarterly than expected varieties of mining, some analysts look forward to the end of the valuation of the repair market. Oriental Securities strategy chief analyst Xue Jun said that from the point of view of the regular report disclosure point of view, due to the valuation and performance expectations related to the problem, often in the previous year from November to February this year, , There will be a wave of "valuation switch" market, the theoretical basis is based on the performance of the first three quarters of the basic performance can be judged throughout the annual growth rate, ahead of overdraft performance expectations under the valuation space.
Day wind securities research report, entered in October, continue to maintain the window to do more judgments, the logical core is the supply side of the environmental protection supervision and production continued to exceed expectations, and the economic toughness led to the demand side will not be cliff down. Comprehensive supply side and demand side of the situation, the future price of industrial products and corporate earnings to continue to maintain a relatively high probability. Into the three quarterly window period, the proposed focus on steel, nonferrous metals, chemical and other performance than expected plate. In addition, with the three quarterly came out, the market for next year's performance began to have a clear prejudgment, so the opportunity to switch the valuation will gradually start.
It is noteworthy that this year, the market is particularly focused on the performance of certainty, as well as valuation and profit matching, so investors pay more attention to the earnings. In this regard, Xue Jun said that with the A shares and mature market convergence, the performance of the attention will only increase will not be reduced. A shares open to the general trend of the trend, for the pursuit of blue chip stocks may have just begun. "This year, A shares of the value of a strong return on investment value is to focus on performance, valuation, on the basis of performance, combined with a reasonable market valuation, which is the value of investment show." The public institutions, analysts said The
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