With the disclosure of the third quarterly report, listed companies have successively handed over “transcripts”. China Securities Journal reporter found that as of mid-October, among the listed companies that had predicted the results of the first three quarters, there were about 1,600 performance pre-history, accounting for 71.74% of the total number of companies disclosed. In addition, of the 51 listed companies that released the third quarterly report on October 17, 42 companies achieved profit growth in the first three quarters, and 24 companies achieved more than 50% of their net profit growth in the first three quarters, 19 of which The company's growth rate is over 100%.
Affected by supply-side reform, environmental protection and other factors, building materials, chemicals, steel, paper and other industries are the "highlands" in the first three quarters of A-shares. In addition, the overall performance of the SME board and the GEM continued to improve. With the deepening of the reform of the real economy and the capital market, the “structural adjustment” of the performance of A-share listed companies continued. At the same time, with the disclosure of the three quarterly reports and the clearing of the annual results, the market will usher in the “valuation switching” period at the end of the year.
Small and medium-sized performance rebounded
Financial big data terminals show that as of October 17, 51 listed companies have disclosed three quarterly reports. Among the 51 companies mentioned above, 42 companies achieved profit growth in the first three quarters, and 24 companies achieved more than 50% of their net profit growth in the first three quarters. Among them, 19 companies grew by more than 100%. In the periodical industries such as building materials and chemicals.
In fact, although the disclosure of the third quarterly report of the listed company has just begun, the previous three quarterly results announcement has been disclosed. To some extent, the performance of the listed company in the third quarter has been clearer. According to the research report of Essence Securities at the end of September, from the situation that the notice has been disclosed, the profit growth of steel and chemical industry continued, and the performance of papermaking and delivery was bright. As of September 27, the performance of the upstream and upstream resources was diverging, the profit growth of steel and chemical industry continued, and the performance of cyclical stocks remained at a high level.
With the continuous disclosure of information on listed companies, the performance of A-shares in the third quarter has been clear. The financial big data terminal showed that as of October 17, there were 2,137 companies that disclosed the results of the three quarterly reports, and the basic disclosure of the small and medium-sized board and the GEM was completed, and the disclosure rate of the main board was around 30%. The performance forecast shows that the overall net profit of listed companies maintained a high growth. On the whole, the disclosure rate of the main board was low and the data comparability was weak, while the small and medium-sized board maintained high growth and the growth rate of the ChiNext was low. It is worth noting that, as can be seen from the data, the performance differentiation trend of SME board and GEM is more obvious, and non-weighted stocks perform better relative weight stocks.
Since the net profit of each company's three quarterly report is an interval, Haitong Securities' strategy team takes the arithmetic mean of its upper and lower limits to replace the net profit value of the three quarterly reports. From this analysis, it is found that the company that disclosed the notice for the third quarterly report For the sample, the net profit of the first three quarters of the small and medium-sized board and the GEM increased by 33.9% and 8.1% year-on-year, while the semi-annual report was 23.1% and 5.7%. The small and medium-sized board and the GEM index saw the net profit of the first three quarters increase by 26.3% and -8.5. %, while the semi-annual report was 13.6%, -15.2%. Among them, after the GEM removed Wen's shares and Eastern Fortune, the accumulated net profit in the first three quarters increased by 22.6% year-on-year, while the semi-annual report was 23.0%.
It is worth noting that the growth rate of the GEM in the third quarter has rebounded significantly. According to Haitong Securities data, the GEM's single-quarter net profit in the third quarter increased by 22.1% year-on-year, excluding Wen's and Dongcai's 28.7%, compared with 1.9% and 20.4% in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the single-quarter net profit of the small and medium-sized board increased by 42.3% year-on-year, which was further improved compared with 20.7% in the second quarter.
In terms of industry distribution, Dai Kang, chief strategist of Huatai Securities, said that among the small and medium-sized non-financial A-shares, the growth rate of performance was positive for two consecutive quarters, and the stocks with accelerated third-quarter performance accelerated were concentrated in upstream non-ferrous metals (rare metals). And midstream manufacturing (new energy equipment, transportation equipment, building decoration) industry.
The annual growth rate is expected to increase significantly
Based on the analysis of the performance of the three quarterly reports, the organization forecasts the annual results of listed companies. Haitong Securities said that according to the historical quarterly net profit to account for the full-year net profit growth rate, the average profit of the first three quarters of the small and medium-sized board in 2012-2016 accounted for 71.5% of the whole year, which is used to calculate the net profit of the small and medium-sized board in 2017. It increased by 25.5% year-on-year. There are fewer opportunities for GEM companies to boost their performance through outreach expansion, so only a few companies will consolidate at the end of the year, and the company's annual net profit distribution will gradually become more uniform. In 2016, after the GEM and GEM excluded Wen's shares and Eastern Fortune, the net profit in the first three quarters accounted for 68.5% and 61.7% respectively. It is expected that the proportion will continue to rise in 2017, assuming that the ratio is 70% and 65 respectively. %, then combined with the three quarterly report growth rate and 2016 net profit, it is estimated that the GEM's 2017 net profit growth rate was 5.8%, excluding Wen's shares and Oriental wealth after 16.3%.
Xue Jun, chief analyst of Orient Securities Strategy, said that the annual growth rate of A-shares in 2017 is 15% to 18%, which is a significant increase compared to last year. However, the growth rate of A-share listed companies in 2018 may be faster than that in 2017. It will decline, but it is still growing positively. The period of growth of A-share historical performance is basically 4-5 years, and the rising period of recovery is generally not more than 3 years. The low point of this round of performance growth is 2015, and the recovery begins in 2016. Therefore, the high probability in 2017 is the high point of this round of performance growth cycle. The absolute value of A18 performance growth in 2018 may decline. But it is still growing positively.
Of course, in addition to the growth rate of performance, investors also pay attention to various indicators such as profit quality, profitability and profitability. Dai Kang, chief strategist of Huatai Securities, said that maintaining the ROE of this round of A-share non-financial enterprises will at least be fixed until the middle of next year. He believes that the previous economic and profit data deviated, reflecting the direction of determining the profitability of the enterprise from the previous demand-led transition to the supply and demand level, so it is recommended to pay more attention to changes in profitability.
According to macro analysts of public fundraising institutions, listed companies are welcoming strong support in performance in 2017. Only the information observed so far shows that with the recovery of the macro economy and even the staged performance, and the original source of the capital market itself, A Listed companies are welcoming a strong period of profitability. Since the beginning of this year, the capital market has severely supervised the flicker restructuring, blind cross-border mergers and acquisitions, excessive refinancing, and the illegal reduction of shareholders of listed companies. Many listed companies have thrown away the old routines of telling stories and playing concepts, and returning to doing so. It will naturally be reflected in the performance of the big and strong main business and the digging of the inner motivation. In addition, supply-side reforms and stricter environmental protection have also prompted some industries to improve quality and efficiency.
End of year or welcome "valuation switching" period
With the disclosure of the three quarterly reports and the clearing of the annual results, in addition to mining the varieties expected to exceed the expectations in the third quarter, the market will also usher in the "valuation switching" period at the end of the year.
Standing at the current time, the three quarterly reports have become an important main line of institutional investment in the near future. In this regard, LG Securities strategist Liao Ling said that in the short term, the deterministic “anchor” that investors can refer to is the third quarterly report, and the impact on the market structure will last at least until the beginning of November. The overall growth of A-share earnings has not fluctuated as a whole, so the contribution to the overall index is still weak. Investors are more concerned about which sectors have exceeded expectations in terms of performance. As the current three-season report period is in the announcement period, when the interest rate trend has not changed suddenly and the risk appetite is too “subjective”, the market can only grasp the main line of the three quarterly reports. This trend is expected to continue until the performance is fully realized in early November.
In addition to the mining of the expected varieties in the third quarter, some analysts are looking forward to the valuation of the end of the year to repair the market. Xue Jun, chief analyst of Orient Securities Strategy, said that from the point of view of the periodic report disclosure, due to the valuation and performance expectations, the periodic report from November to February of the previous year was often released. There will be a wave of “valuation switching”. The theoretical basis is that based on the performance of the first three quarters, it is basically possible to judge the annual growth rate and the valuation space under the overdraft performance expectation.
Tianfeng Securities research report said that in October, it will continue to maintain the judgment of doing more window period. The core of logic is that the supply-side environmental supervision and production limit continue to exceed expectations, and the economic resilience leads to the demand side not falling. Based on the situation of the supply side and the demand side, the probability of future industrial product prices and corporate profits will remain relatively high. Entering the three quarterly report window, it is recommended to pay attention to the steel, nonferrous metals, chemical and other industries with more than expected performance. In addition, with the release of the three quarterly reports, the market has a clear anticipation for the performance of next year, so the opportunity for valuation switching will gradually expand.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the market has paid particular attention to the certainty of performance and the matching of valuation and profitability. Therefore, investors are paying more and more attention to financial reports. In this regard, Xue Jun said that as A-shares are in line with mature markets, the emphasis on performance will only increase and will not decrease. The A-share market is opening to the outside world, and the pursuit of blue-chip stocks may just begin. “This year, A-share value investment has returned strongly. Value investment is closely focused on performance and valuation. On the basis of performance, combined with reasonable market valuation, this is also the emergence of value investment.” The above-mentioned public fundraising analysts said .
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