Analysts said that the rental market is an indispensable part of the real estate long-term mechanism, which helps stabilize the real estate market.
Recently, housing leasing policies have been intensively introduced throughout the country. A report from Orient Securities predicts that by 2030, China's leasing population will reach 270 million people, and the overall market size will reach 4.2 trillion yuan.
An analyst from Orient Securities yesterday stated that the leasing market is an indispensable part of the real estate long-term mechanism, which helps to stabilize the real estate market and promote the return of real estate to residential properties. China's first-tier cities have far fewer rental population and markets than New York, Los Angeles, and Tokyo. The main reason is that their rents are relatively low and the proportion of the leasing population is low. In the future, China's first-tier cities will continue to occupy the largest share of the market, and the market size is expected to double.
According to the Orient Securities Research Report, the current rental population in China is estimated to be 190 million people, and the scale of the leasing market has exceeded trillion yuan. According to calculations, among the 190 million people in the country's total rental population, the floating population and university graduates are the major constituents. In the future, the “main battlefield” of the Chinese leasing market will be in the first-tier and second-tier cities. Therefore, four first-tier cities and 23 second-tier cities have been selected for detailed split calculations. It has been measured that the current scale of the leasing market in China has reached 1.3 trillion yuan, including The share of first-tier cities and second-tier cities is 31% and 20% respectively. However, compared with the mature markets in developed countries, there is still much room for development in terms of both the leasing population and the overall leasing market size.
In addition, the report predicts that by 2030 China's leasing population will reach 270 million people and the overall market size will reach 4.2 trillion yuan. The growth of the leasing population comes from the continuous increase in the size of the floating population. The urbanization process will enter the second stage, and more people will gather from small and medium-sized cities to big cities. The first and second tier cities will be provided with an incremental leasing population. At the same time, the level of rent will also increase with the increase in disposable income and CPI.
Orient Securities analysts said that first-tier cities have increased the supply of leased land in future land supply plans, and have begun to gradually implement, Shanghai has already transferred 6 pieces of pure leased land, and another 10 lands will change the planned use to leased land . The share of the second-tier cities in the future will increase from 20% to 27%, which will be the largest incremental market. Brand apartment companies have also realized this and have begun to actively seize the layout of such cities.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yigou Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily on October 17 that the current leasing market is undergoing a transition from “old lease” to “new lease”, such as the past lease. The emphasis is on the relationship of rights and obligations between the tenant and the landlord. However, in reality, similar rents still have some new elements, including the long-term rental apartment innovations, which are all new features of the development of this round of the leasing market. The increase in the number of leased land around the country also meets the new direction for the development of such a rental market.
“The scale of development of the leasing market in the future is expected to continue to increase. On the one hand, the population size will continue to increase, and the corresponding rental demand will increase. On the other hand, the demand for the leasing market will be further released, including the availability of rental housing. The increase in the area will bring about many new market opportunities, and from the perspective of development, according to the current pilot project in Shanghai, it is expected that the following cities in the major cities will form various types of rental housing to more closely match the needs of renters. "Yan Yuejin said.
House price index (Source: Oriental Wealth Network)
Real estate development data (Source: Oriental Wealth Network)
Real estate sales data (Source: Oriental Wealth Network)
Rent and Sale Concept
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