Analysts said that the leasing market is an indispensable part of the real estate long-term mechanism and helps stabilize the real estate market.
Recently, housing rental policies have been introduced intensively. A report by Orient Securities predicts that by 2030, China's rental population will reach 270 million, and the overall market size will reach 4.2 trillion yuan.
An analyst at Orient Securities said yesterday that the leasing market is an indispensable part of the real estate long-term mechanism, which helps stabilize the real estate market and promotes the return of real estate to residential properties. The rental population and market size of first-tier cities in China are much smaller than those in New York, Los Angeles, and Tokyo. The main reason is that the rent level is low and the proportion of leased population is low. In the future, China's first-tier cities will continue to occupy the largest market share, and the market size is expected to double.
According to the Oriental Securities Research Report, the current rental population in China is estimated at 190 million, and the rental market has exceeded one trillion yuan. It is estimated that the national rental population of 190 million people is mainly composed of floating population and college graduates. In the future, the “main battlefield” of China's leasing market will be in first- and second-tier cities. Therefore, four first-tier cities and 23 second-tier cities have been selected for detailed split calculations. It is estimated that the current leasing market in China has reached 1.3 trillion yuan, of which The share of first- and second-tier cities accounted for 31% and 20% respectively. However, compared with mature markets in developed countries, there is still much room for development regardless of the size of the leased population or the overall rental market.
In addition, the report predicts that by 2030, China's rental population will reach 270 million people, and the overall market size will reach 4.2 trillion yuan. The growth of the leased population comes from the continuous growth of the size of the floating population. The urbanization process will enter the second stage. More people will be gathered from small and medium-sized cities to large cities, and the first- and second-tier cities will be provided with incremental rental population. At the same time, the level of rent will also rise with the increase in disposable income and CPI.
The analyst said that the first-tier cities have increased the supply of leased land in the future land supply plan, and have begun to implement gradually. Shanghai has sold 6 pure leased land, and another 10 land will be converted to leased land. . The share of the second-tier cities in the future will increase from 20% to 27%, which will be the largest incremental market. The brand apartment company has also realized this and has begun to actively seize the layout of such cities.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank research center of Yiju Research Institute, said in an interview with Securities Daily on October 17 that the current leasing market is undergoing a transition from “old lease” to “new lease”, such as past leases. More emphasis is placed on the rights and obligations between tenants and landlords, but in fact the current similar leases still have some new elements, including the innovation of long-term rental apartments, etc., are the new features of this round of rental market development. The increase in rental land in various places is also in line with the new direction of the development of such rental market.
“The scale of development of the future leasing market is expected to continue to increase. On the one hand, the population size continues to grow, and the corresponding leasing demand will rise. On the other hand, the demand for the leasing market will be further released, including the rental of housing. The increase in area, etc., will bring a lot of new market opportunities. From the development direction, according to the current pilot in Shanghai, it is expected that the downtown areas of subsequent major cities will form various types of rental housing to better meet the needs of renters. Yan Yuejin said.
House price index (Source: Eastern Fortune Network)
Real estate development data (Source: Eastern Fortune Network)
Real estate sales data (Source: Eastern Fortune Network)
Rent and sale concept fund
|Fund code||Fund abbreviation||Nearly three months of earnings||Handling fee||operating|
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