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Published on 2017-10-18 10:55:16 Share it web version
                        Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank: the central bank has basically withdrawn from the normalization intervention of the foreign exchange market
Source: Securities Times Editor: Eastern Fortune Network

On October 18, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, told the Securities Times reporter before the opening meeting of the 19th National Congress that the RMB exchange rate has been relatively stable in recent times, and it can be seen that the exchange rate is driven by marketization. The central bank has basically withdrawn from normalized intervention. After the 19th National Congress, the RMB exchange rate will have a more stable foundation.

Pan Gongsheng, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that the basic principle will not change by increasing exchange rate flexibility and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a balanced level. Some technical reforms will be carried out under this basic principle. Monetary policy will still maintain a stable and neutral tone.

When talking about the opening up of China's financial industry, Pan Gongsheng said that opening up to the outside world is an important strategy for China. From the perspective of finance and foreign exchange management, promoting openness is an important task.

  延伸阅读>>>

  China's economy is expected to be optimistic, supporting the renminbi after the National Day rose nearly 1%

  [IMF recently stated that the stabilization of China's economic growth has driven the growth momentum of emerging markets and the world from the channels of trade, commodity prices and confidence]

From May to September, the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi was obvious. In just 4 months, the onshore renminbi (CNY) appreciated more than 6% against the US dollar and once rushed to 6.4. After bilateral volatility dominated the trend of the renminbi in September, the renminbi has been climbing again since the National Day in the context of global institutions optimistic about the Chinese economy. So far, the increase has been nearly 1%.

The concern of all circles is that the strong appreciation of the renminbi this month is dominated by several factors? What is the impact of China’s good economic growth expectations on the exchange rate? What kind of pattern will the RMB trend show in the future?

Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that the four main reasons helped the yuan. First, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.7% in September, significantly exceeding market expectations. Second, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutions have raised China's economic growth forecast for 2017, boosting market confidence; Third, the US inflation data fell short of expectations, leading to a weaker US dollar index; in addition, the international capital flow situation has improved.

Zhou Hao, the chief Chinese economist at Commerzbank, told the First Financial Reporter that China’s economic growth rate was higher than previously expected. It is expected that the RMB will be around 6.76 at the end of the year.

  RMB regains momentum

As of 14:30 on October 17th, Beijing time, the onshore RMB against the US dollar was 6.614, which was nearly 1% higher than the 6.6785 before the National Day. According to an interview with the First Financial News, in addition to the better-than-expected Chinese economy, the recent resumption of the RMB exchange rate has been affected by multiple factors.

First, the dollar is weak. Last Friday's US inflation data fell short of expectations, causing the dollar to plummet, which caused the external depreciation pressure of the renminbi to ease.

"Inflation is lower than expected, which has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's policy. In the future, the inflation stagnation will continue to hang over the dollar bulls," Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific chief trader of forex broker OANDA, told the First Financial Reporter.

Secondly, Xie Yaxuan said that after the National Day holiday, the decline in the demand for foreign exchange purchases by residents will help improve the domestic supply and demand relationship in the foreign exchange market and ease the seasonal depreciation pressure of the RMB before the holiday. According to historical data, the amount of bank valet sales under the service trade in September is often significantly higher than the October level.

In addition, the international capital flow situation has improved. Last week, international capital inflows from emerging economies such as China, South Korea and India increased, especially in South Korea, where the inflows reached their highest level this year. The low-level rebound trend of the emerging market capital flow indicators of the China Merchants Macro Team is more obvious.

From the perspective of market capitalization, according to the statistics of the flow of funds to the monitoring agency EPFR last week, the capital inflows of the Chinese market (including A, H and red chips) funds have expanded significantly, and this week's inflow of 1.29 billion US dollars (only 230 million US dollars last week), Set a record for the largest weekly inflow since July 2015.

At the same time, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 10.8 billion U.S. dollars in August, and it rebounded for the seventh consecutive month.

It is worth noting that most of the institutions interviewed by the First Financial Journal said that the rise of the RMB exchange rate does not have the component of central bank intervention. “The average daily trading volume of the foreign exchange market last week was only 21 billion US dollars, which is at a low level since August. This is a strong evidence that the central bank has not intervened in the market.” Xie Yaxuan said.

  China's economy is better than expected

External factors are important, but economic fundamentals are long-term factors that determine the strength of the exchange rate. Since the second half of the year, global institutions have raised their expectations for the Chinese economy.

Gao Ting, China's chief strategist at UBS Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that the PMI unexpectedly rose in September, and the industrial producers' PPI grew faster than market expectations, mainly due to the promotion of raw material prices.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, also said that China's economic growth rate is expected to reach 7.0% in the second half of the year. This level also exceeds the market's judgment that the economic growth rate will slow down in the second half of the year.

The IMF also recently stated that the stabilization of China's economic growth has driven the growth momentum of emerging markets and the world from the channels of trade, commodity prices and confidence. It is expected that China's GDP growth rate will rise to 6.8% in 2017, 2018. The year was 6.5%, which was 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast for April this year.

In August this year, due to the unexpectedly strong performance of the Asia-Pacific region in the first half of the year, Moody's also raised China's 2017 economic growth rate forecast from 6.6% to 6.8%, and raised the 2018 economic growth forecast from 6.3% to 6.4. %.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the annual economic growth will be significantly higher than 6.5%, and it is expected to remain at around 6.8%, which is generally stable.

Specifically, the expansion of export growth has become a major contributor to the rise in GDP this year. Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that net exports in the first half of this year boosted GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points compared with 0.7 percentage points in the same period last year. Correspondingly, the dollar-denominated export growth rate in the first half of this year rebounded sharply from -9.57% last year to 8.5%.

Zhang Jun believes that in the past two months, the Morgan Stanley Global Trade Leading Index (MSGTLI) has stabilized and rebounded. Global trade growth will maintain a relatively stable trend in the fourth quarter, and there will be no significant contraction. China's economic growth momentum will be in the fourth quarter. continued.

  RMB continued to stabilize in the fourth quarter

As far as the fourth quarter is concerned, major institutions generally expect that the renminbi will have a range volatility against the US dollar, and there is no possibility of a large depreciation.

At present, the cross-border capital flow of RMB has improved. The balance of official foreign exchange reserves announced by the People's Bank of China at the end of September 2017 was $3,108.5 million, an increase of eight consecutive months.

In addition, the willingness of enterprises and residents to purchase foreign exchange (the ratio of residents and enterprises buying foreign exchange to banks and foreign exchange expenditures to customers) fell to 61%, and the purchase rate was 74% at the beginning of this year. The willingness of enterprises and residents to settle foreign exchange (the ratio of residents and enterprises selling foreign exchange to banks and foreign exchange earnings to customers) rose to 62%.

In terms of external factors, although the Fed started to shrink in October, it will raise interest rates again in December, but this is already expected in the market, and due to the uncertainty of US fiscal stimulus and the continued weakness of inflation, it will suppress the US dollar. The upside.

Forex Bank FX strategist KitJuckes told the First Financial Reporter that the market has fully expected that the Fed’s tightening process will be very mild in 2018, although the dollar will not fall sharply, but the dollar’s ​​growth momentum in September It has collapsed. "At the moment, the euro is still undervalued. The average return of the medium-term valuation will continue. If the European economic recovery continues and the European Central Bank continues to normalize the process, the euro will rise to above 1.3 in 18 months. ."

The euro occupies about 70% of the weight in the US dollar index, and since 2015 the euro has depreciated by nearly 30% against the US dollar. Once the euro starts to rise, the dollar will also be affected.

In addition, institutions generally expect that if US inflation does not rise significantly, it is difficult for the US dollar to appreciate significantly.

“The 10-year inflation-protected bond (TIPS) yield is down 4 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and in other G10 countries (in countries participating in the General Loan Agreement), this rate of return has risen, for example, Germany climbed 12 At the base point, Canada climbed 25 basis points. During the same period, the dollar depreciated against the G10 currency," Jukes said.

“Fed officials are assessing whether the inflationary downturn is an intermittent one. The market is expecting the federal funds rate to rise to around 2.5%, and inflation may remain below 2%, so this is not enough to get the dollar back to last December. High," he said. (Source: First Financial Daily)

Published on 2017-10-18 14:01:54
                            is it? Ha ha!
Published on 2017-10-18 15:08:59
Let’s take a look at the high-volume mini-disc of China Hi-Tech 600730, which can be turned over several times.
Published on 2017-10-18 15:10:13
China's high-tech rare Chinese small-cap small-cap stocks have huge potential
Published on 2017-10-18 15:13:43
                            300113
Published on 2017-10-18 15:18:02
                            twenty three
Published on 2017-10-18 15:24:36
                            The food market is coming. At the end of the year, there is a real market. The Red Sea homepage is pushing the Shouxian Valley and Sichuan Jiuzhou. The big customers of the Red Sea will be greatly increased. The increase will be more than the Zhangjiagang and Jidong equipments that were popular in the early Red Sea. Everyone can actively participate in heavy positions, and will copy and double the market! After the holiday, the market index will basically maintain a stable upward trend, light index and heavy stocks, to seize the mainstream hot spot leading stocks is king.
Published on 2017-10-18 15:43:36
                            Communication white horse leading the way 5G force NB-IOT is expected to poke
At 10:54 on October 18, 2017 Author: Liu Yang Source: Shen Wanhong Source Editor: dongfangcaifuwang
Silan micro; hot chip, lithium battery protection. Huijin is the second largest shareholder, with the largest shareholder holding 41%!
5G force. 4G smoothly evolved to 5G, and the early network construction was expanded to the core. The 5G investment is flat and long-lasting, and the vertical industry is the future Nugget Point. MWC2017 looks at the latest developments in the 5G industry chain. The best time for the 4G core stocks to be laid out: the license is issued one year ahead of schedule. Base station antenna RF enterprises: The relative revenue and performance growth rate are consistent. Pre-judgment of domestic 5G license issuance: from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020.
NB-IoT is expected to be a prairie. Look at NB-IoT in China and watch the Internet in the world. Domestic operator NB-I...
Published on 2017-10-18 16:48:58
                            002871 future big cattle stocks
Published on 2017-10-18 16:51:14
                            Niang Xipi: Chairman, Northeast Securities 3 quarterly report 0.27 yuan The current price of 10.03 yuan is not as good as the real price of the authentic road loss of ST,Why is that?
600149 * ST Square Exhibition 2 quarterly report - 0.01 yuan stock price 12.76 yuan 600733 * ST striker 2 quarterly report 0.00 yuan stock price 50.18 yuan
600847 * ST Wanli 2 quarterly report - 0.00 yuan stock price 15.35 yuan 600228 * ST Chang Jiu 2 quarterly report - 0.06 yuan stock price 14.42 yuan
600817 * ST Hongsheng 2 quarterly report - 0.00 yuan stock price 14.05 yuan 600265 ST Jinggu 2 quarterly report - 0.07 yuan current price 25.07 yuan
600680 ST on the second quarterly report -0.36 yuan current price 14.11 yuan 600234 ST landscape 2 quarterly report -0.06 yuan stock price 15.51 yuan
...
Published on 2017-10-18 17:11:40
                            OCT A000069 doubled its third-quarter results to a conservative target of 18.88 yuan!
As of 2017-10-13, the company's performance forecast for the company in the next 12 months

In 2017, a total of 17 institutions gave forecasts, with an average forecast of 2017 earnings per share of 0.9967, of which:
Guotai Junan is the most optimistic, predicting a net profit of 935,447,800 yuan; Guohai Securities is more conservative
The predicted net profit is 599,014,400 yuan.

In 2018, a total of 16 institutions gave forecasts, with an average forecast of 20,495 earnings per share of 20,495, of which:
Essence Securities is most optimistic, predicting a net profit of 1,24,694,000 yuan; Guojin Securities is more conservative
The predicted net profit is 730,305,500 yuan.

In 2019, a total of 12 institutions gave forecasts, with an average forecast of 20,159 earnings per share of 20,159, of which:
Essence Securities is the most optimistic, predicting a net profit of 151,213 million yuan; BOC International is more conservative
The predicted net profit is 894.90 million yuan.
Published on 2017-10-18 17:14:05
                            OCT A000069 doubled its third-quarter results to a conservative target of 18.88 yuan!
As of 2017-10-13, the company's performance forecast for the company in the next 12 months

In 2017, a total of 17 institutions gave forecasts, with an average forecast of 2017 earnings per share of 0.9967, of which:
Guotai Junan is the most optimistic, predicting a net profit of 935,447,800 yuan; Guohai Securities is more conservative
The predicted net profit is 599,014,400 yuan.

In 2018, a total of 16 institutions gave forecasts, with an average forecast of 20,495 earnings per share of 20,495, of which:
Essence Securities is most optimistic, predicting a net profit of 1,24,694,000 yuan; Guojin Securities is more conservative
The predicted net profit is 730,305,500 yuan.

In 2019, a total of 12 institutions gave forecasts, with an average forecast of 20,159 earnings per share of 20,159, of which:
Essence Securities is the most optimistic, predicting a net profit of 151,213 million yuan; BOC International is more conservative
The predicted net profit is 894.90 million yuan.
Published on 2017-10-18 17:33:46
                            The appreciation of the renminbi is at least good for the stock market, and others do not evaluate.
Published on 2017-10-18 20:37:00
                            We believe that: Weilong shares (002871) small, high performance and high growth, the original eight concepts of the theme are (1. Military, 2. Xiong'an, 3. Belt and Road, 4. Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Dawan District, 5. Hebei Male Anxin District excavated the Jingtian Canal Baotian Canal, 6. China Manufacturing 2015, 7. National 172 major water conservancy projects, 8. Pan Xiaogang listed, no small non-three, no release of banned shares within 3 years - high performance and high growth - with The implementation of high-transfer and large-distribution ability) Missing one is the company's sewage treatment system products are environmentally friendly; as Weilong's product demand is seasonal, the general construction volume of various large-scale projects will increase in the second half of the year (approval in the first half of the year, etc.) The preliminary work entered the construction of the project, and the net profit growth of Weilong in the second half of the year was even greater. . . In the overall market today, the market sector has accelerated its rotation and the funds have been cautious, which has led to the theme stocks entering the stage of the round of speculation. The market expects that the follow-up meeting will mention the reform of central enterprises, China's smart manufacturing 2025, technology, culture; strategically, you can pay more attention to related concept stocks and military, environmental protection, and Xiong'an secondary stocks with medium and long-term value. . .
Published on 2017-10-18 23:57:31
                            The value of the self-owned property is revalued. As of the end of 2017, 14 of the company's 53 stores were self-owned and 2 were leased. The company's own property business covers a total construction area of ​​852,000 square meters. The property value is calculated at market price of 17.5 billion yuan, plus monetary funds of 6.76 billion yuan and deducting long-term loans and bonds payable 1.61 billion. The company's assets are revalued at approximately 22.65 billion, compared with the current market value of 14.5 billion. The premium is 56%.
Published on 2017-10-19 06:56:55
                            Praise, I hope that A shares will also rush out of the intervention and use laws and regulations to manage A shares, so that the A shares will be in the normal state every year.
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Source: Securities Times Editor: Eastern Fortune Network

On October 18, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, told the Securities Times reporter before the opening meeting of the 19th National Congress that the RMB exchange rate has been relatively stable in recent times, and it can be seen that the exchange rate is driven by marketization. The central bank has basically withdrawn from normalized intervention. After the 19th National Congress, the RMB exchange rate will have a more stable foundation.

Pan Gongsheng, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that the basic principle will not change by increasing exchange rate flexibility and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a balanced level. Some technical reforms will be carried out under this basic principle. Monetary policy will still maintain a stable and neutral tone.

When talking about the opening up of China's financial industry, Pan Gongsheng said that opening up to the outside world is an important strategy for China. From the perspective of finance and foreign exchange management, promoting openness is an important task.

  Extended reading>>>

  China's economy is expected to be optimistic, supporting the renminbi after the National Day rose nearly 1%

  [IMF recently stated that the stabilization of China's economic growth has driven the growth momentum of emerging markets and the world from the channels of trade, commodity prices and confidence]

From May to September, the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi was obvious. In just 4 months, the onshore renminbi (CNY) appreciated more than 6% against the US dollar and once rushed to 6.4. After bilateral volatility dominated the trend of the renminbi in September, the renminbi has been climbing again since the National Day in the context of global institutions optimistic about the Chinese economy. So far, the increase has been nearly 1%.

The concern of all circles is that the strong appreciation of the renminbi this month is dominated by several factors? What is the impact of China’s good economic growth expectations on the exchange rate? What kind of pattern will the RMB trend show in the future?

Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that the four main reasons helped the yuan. First, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.7% in September, significantly exceeding market expectations. Second, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutions have raised China's economic growth forecast for 2017, boosting market confidence; Third, the US inflation data fell short of expectations, leading to a weaker US dollar index; in addition, the international capital flow situation has improved.

Zhou Hao, the chief Chinese economist at Commerzbank, told the First Financial Reporter that China’s economic growth rate was higher than previously expected. It is expected that the RMB will be around 6.76 at the end of the year.

  RMB regains momentum

As of 14:30 on October 17th, Beijing time, the onshore RMB against the US dollar was 6.614, which was nearly 1% higher than the 6.6785 before the National Day. According to an interview with the First Financial News, in addition to the better-than-expected Chinese economy, the recent resumption of the RMB exchange rate has been affected by multiple factors.

First, the dollar is weak. Last Friday's US inflation data fell short of expectations, causing the dollar to plummet, which caused the external depreciation pressure of the renminbi to ease.

"Inflation is lower than expected, which has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's policy. In the future, the inflation stagnation will continue to hang over the dollar bulls," Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific chief trader of forex broker OANDA, told the First Financial Reporter.

Secondly, Xie Yaxuan said that after the National Day holiday, the decline in the demand for foreign exchange purchases by residents will help improve the domestic supply and demand relationship in the foreign exchange market and ease the seasonal depreciation pressure of the RMB before the holiday. According to historical data, the amount of bank valet sales under the service trade in September is often significantly higher than the October level.

In addition, the international capital flow situation has improved. Last week, international capital inflows from emerging economies such as China, South Korea and India increased, especially in South Korea, where the inflows reached their highest level this year. The low-level rebound trend of the emerging market capital flow indicators of the China Merchants Macro Team is more obvious.

From the perspective of market capitalization, according to the statistics of the flow of funds to the monitoring agency EPFR last week, the capital inflows of the Chinese market (including A, H and red chips) funds have expanded significantly, and this week's inflow of 1.29 billion US dollars (only 230 million US dollars last week), Set a record for the largest weekly inflow since July 2015.

At the same time, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 10.8 billion U.S. dollars in August, and it rebounded for the seventh consecutive month.

It is worth noting that most of the institutions interviewed by the First Financial Journal said that the rise of the RMB exchange rate does not have the component of central bank intervention. “The average daily trading volume of the foreign exchange market last week was only 21 billion US dollars, which is at a low level since August. This is a strong evidence that the central bank has not intervened in the market.” Xie Yaxuan said.

  China's economy is better than expected

External factors are important, but economic fundamentals are long-term factors that determine the strength of the exchange rate. Since the second half of the year, global institutions have raised their expectations for the Chinese economy.

Gao Ting, China's chief strategist at UBS Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that the PMI unexpectedly rose in September, and the industrial producers' PPI grew faster than market expectations, mainly due to the promotion of raw material prices.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, also said that China's economic growth rate is expected to reach 7.0% in the second half of the year. This level also exceeds the market's judgment that the economic growth rate will slow down in the second half of the year.

The IMF also recently stated that the stabilization of China's economic growth has driven the growth momentum of emerging markets and the world from the channels of trade, commodity prices and confidence. It is expected that China's GDP growth rate will rise to 6.8% in 2017, 2018. The year was 6.5%, which was 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast for April this year.

In August this year, due to the unexpectedly strong performance of the Asia-Pacific region in the first half of the year, Moody's also raised China's 2017 economic growth rate forecast from 6.6% to 6.8%, and raised the 2018 economic growth forecast from 6.3% to 6.4. %.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the annual economic growth will be significantly higher than 6.5%, and it is expected to remain at around 6.8%, which is generally stable.

Specifically, the expansion of export growth has become a major contributor to the rise in GDP this year. Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the First Financial Reporter that net exports in the first half of this year boosted GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points compared with 0.7 percentage points in the same period last year. Correspondingly, the dollar-denominated export growth rate in the first half of this year rebounded sharply from -9.57% last year to 8.5%.

Zhang Jun believes that in the past two months, the Morgan Stanley Global Trade Leading Index (MSGTLI) has stabilized and rebounded. Global trade growth will maintain a relatively stable trend in the fourth quarter, and there will be no significant contraction. China's economic growth momentum will be in the fourth quarter. continued.

  RMB continued to stabilize in the fourth quarter

As far as the fourth quarter is concerned, major institutions generally expect that the renminbi will have a range volatility against the US dollar, and there is no possibility of a large depreciation.

At present, the cross-border capital flow of RMB has improved. The balance of official foreign exchange reserves announced by the People's Bank of China at the end of September 2017 was $3,108.5 million, an increase of eight consecutive months.

In addition, the willingness of enterprises and residents to purchase foreign exchange (the ratio of residents and enterprises buying foreign exchange to banks and foreign exchange expenditures to customers) fell to 61%, and the purchase rate was 74% at the beginning of this year. The willingness of enterprises and residents to settle foreign exchange (the ratio of residents and enterprises selling foreign exchange to banks and foreign exchange earnings to customers) rose to 62%.

In terms of external factors, although the Fed started to shrink in October, it will raise interest rates again in December, but this is already expected in the market, and due to the uncertainty of US fiscal stimulus and the continued weakness of inflation, it will suppress the US dollar. The upside.

Forex Bank FX strategist KitJuckes told the First Financial Reporter that the market has fully expected that the Fed’s tightening process will be very mild in 2018, although the dollar will not fall sharply, but the dollar’s ​​growth momentum in September It has collapsed. "At the moment, the euro is still undervalued. The average return of the medium-term valuation will continue. If the European economic recovery continues and the European Central Bank continues to normalize the process, the euro will rise to above 1.3 in 18 months. ."

The euro occupies about 70% of the weight in the US dollar index, and since 2015 the euro has depreciated by nearly 30% against the US dollar. Once the euro starts to rise, the dollar will also be affected.

In addition, institutions generally expect that if US inflation does not rise significantly, it is difficult for the US dollar to appreciate significantly.

“The 10-year inflation-protected bond (TIPS) yield is down 4 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and in other G10 countries (in countries participating in the General Loan Agreement), this rate of return has risen, for example, Germany climbed 12 At the base point, Canada climbed 25 basis points. During the same period, the dollar depreciated against the G10 currency," Jukes said.

“Fed officials are assessing whether the inflationary downturn is an intermittent one. The market is expecting the federal funds rate to rise to around 2.5%, and inflation may remain below 2%, so this is not enough to get the dollar back to last December. High," he said. (Source: First Financial Daily)