Today, the Shanghai stock market maintains a narrow range of shocks and stabilizes at the 10-day moving average. In terms of sectors, environmental protection, chip, rental and sales, smart TV and other sectors were among the top gainers. In the afternoon, healthy Chinese concept stocks broke out, and LG Health and other stocks rose. Paper, aviation, steel and other sectors were among the top losers. As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.19%; the GEM index rose 0.06%.
At the brokerage morning meeting today, analysts said that the important event window arrived and the market volatility rose.
The buyer is cautious in the short-term. First, there is no need for stability in the market after the meeting. There is no cheap target for each sector. The institutions with good returns this year also need to gradually realize the profits. Second, the economic over-expectation will bring liquidity tension, and the recent rise in long-term interest rates will adversely affect the valuation of the stock market. The expectation of a cyclical price increase may be sufficient or confusing, and the implementation of aluminum's limited production is likely to be less serious than the seller and experts have stated. Near the quarterly report period, we must evade growth stocks that are difficult to deliver. Optimistic about the reasonably priced consumer goods sector, consumption upgrades bring huge endogenous space.
The main sector indices all fell below the 5-day moving average, and the decline was accompanied by market turnover, which reached 540 billion yuan, higher than the average daily turnover last week, and the risk of short-term corrections increased. In terms of industry, banking stocks acted as a support role, closing up 0.93%. In addition, only color steel and steel were red; computers, media and electrical equipment fell sharply. In terms of the theme, the previous strong concept sectors such as 5G, rent and sale, and big data index all showed a large correction; with the expectation of further reform of the agricultural supply side in the fourth quarter, the theme of biological breeding was slightly red. In terms of configuration style, we believe that at the current special time, combined with the market environment and historical experience, it is still recommended to favor the defense and value direction.
Chuan Cai Securities:
The cyclical industry continues to grow at a high level, focusing on the need for consumption and the recovery of TMT. From the perspective of the industry, the cyclical industry's net profit still maintains rapid growth. Excluding the major restructuring events in the past year, from the perspective of companies that have disclosed performance forecasts, the cyclical industries such as steel, transportation, machinery and equipment, real estate, and chemicals are profitable. The growth rate continues to be in the forefront and continues to increase compared with the mid-term report. Among them, the steel industry disclosed that the proportion of corporate income has been more than half; mechanical equipment, chemical and other disclosures of entrepreneurs more than half; representative is relatively strong. Although non-ferrous metals still maintain high profit growth, they have fallen back on the margin. In the large consumer sector, the industries with higher representation and higher profit growth mainly include consumer goods such as commercial trade, textiles and clothing, and pharmaceuticals. In terms of subdivision, the sub-sectors of general retail, chemical and pharmaceutical, clothing and home textiles, medical equipment and other sub-sectors rebounded for two consecutive quarters. In the TMT industry, the growth rate of electronic and computer performance has gradually picked up. Among them, the electronics industry is mainly driven by optical optoelectronics and other electronics; the boom in equipment in the computer industry is more obvious.
The internal factors continue to improve, and the expectation of the stability of the RMB exchange rate is still there. The internal and external factors resonate, which is conducive to the continued expansion of A-shares. Whether it is the A-share operating characteristics under the stock game or the large-scale elastic space calculation based on history, 3410 is not the high point of this year. We believe that the law of A-share operation in the past important meeting time window is changing, and the new operation law under reverse thinking is taking shape, which is expected to become a rare investment time window during and after the meeting. Operationally, light index, heavy stocks, balanced allocation, focus on blue chips, bargain-hunting brokers, national reform, high-end equipment manufacturing and bottom low-priced blue-chip stocks, rallies reduced pre-ups over-high stocks and performance-loss stocks.