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The Shanghai Composite Index continued its narrow-range consolidation trend today. The amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index was only 0.3%, and it closed up slightly by 0.29% to close at 3,381.79 points. The total turnover of the two cities was 442.1 billion yuan, and most of the industry sectors closed down. The cyclical stocks such as steel, nonferrous metals and coal were sluggish, leading the two cities, while the four major banking stocks of workers and peasants were strong, up 2.11% and 1.60 respectively. %, 0.72%, and 2.26%, PetroChina and Sinopec also rose 2.48% and 1.37% respectively, and the role of the support was significant.
For the market trend of the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Founder Securities: 3410 is not the high point of this year
The internal factors continue to improve, and the expectation of the stability of the RMB exchange rate is still there. The internal and external factors resonate, which is conducive to the continued expansion of A-shares.
Whether it is the A-share operating characteristics under the stock game or the large-scale elastic space calculation based on history, 3410 is not the high point of this year.
The law of A-share operation in the past important meeting time window is changing, and the new operation law under reverse thinking is forming, which is expected to become a rare investment time window during and after the meeting.
Operationally, light index, heavy stocks, balanced allocation, focus on blue chips, bargain-hunting brokers, national reform, high-end equipment manufacturing and bottom low-priced blue-chip stocks, rallies reduced pre-ups over-high stocks and performance-loss stocks.
Guojin Securities:The rebound is still the same, profit-driven industry configuration
Stepping into the third quarterly report disclosure period of listed companies, profit-driven industry configuration in October. October is the concentrated disclosure period of the A-shares three quarterly reports. The three quarterly reports of all listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will be fully disclosed on October 31. As of October 15th, there have been 26 listed companies disclosed by Fangda Chemical, Bohui Paper, Qibin Group, China Boulder, Red Star Development, Zhongyuan Special Steel, Beixin Building Materials, Wanhua Chemical, and Hongda Mining. The results of the three quarterly reports. According to the disclosure of listed companies, as of October 15, there were 688 companies with pre-increased A-share performance, which is nearly four times the number of companies (143 companies). Benefiting from factors such as “three-quarter crude oil price increase, supply-side reform and consumption upgrade”, the three quarterly reports of listed companies in 2017 are expected to continue to be high.
From the characteristics of the historical excess board in the October section, profitability drives the industry allocation in October (to obtain excess returns). Most of the sectors that achieved excess returns in October were driven by earnings (three quarterly reports). As of October 15, the chemical and electronics industries were the top two industries with the largest number of companies in the third quarter. The number of companies in the industry was 84 and 75 respectively, accounting for 23.11% of all pre-increased companies. In terms of industry sentiment, the industry's profit growth rate in the third quarter was mainly concentrated in the “steel, building materials, paper, garden, liquor, home appliances, heavy trucks, auto parts, photovoltaics, LEDs, optical components”.
Configuration, standing at the current time, we continue to be optimistic about the A-share market, the A-share rebound window is still open. The positive factors in the overseas market remain the same: After the Trump administration’s tax reduction plan has been delayed for more than half a year, the overall framework for tax reform has finally come out. Although it has been reduced from the previous large-scale tax reduction, it is still the United States for many years. The largest tax cut in history, it is expected to introduce a formal tax reform draft before November 13, and it is more likely to land during the year. If the Trump tax reform is passed, it will be regarded as a "strong heart" for the US economy. "Needles", Lido equity market, etc.; domestic factors also showed positive changes in October: the possibility of achieving a soft landing in the domestic economy in 2017 is large, and the implementation of "targeted RRR" will help A-share earnings (ROE) The structural improvement and the release of the signal of warmer liquidity, the probability of monetary policy tightening in the future is almost zero. As the conference approaches, reforms will increase risk appetite.
Essence Securities: A-share "beautiful 50" into the valuation premium period
It is worth noting that the order of the “beautiful 50” innovation of this round of A-shares is still leading by the first leader or the oligarch, indicating that the “beautiful 50” market is still in the lead state. Like the health service field, led by Hengrui Medicine, followed by Fosun Pharma, Aier Ophthalmology, and Huadong Medicine. The field of information consumption continues to be led by BOE A and Hikvision, followed by Han's Laser, ZTE, Ou Feiguang and Lixun Precision. In the field of alcoholic foods, it continued to be led by Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, followed by Haitian Weiye, Yili, and Angel Yeast. In the field of home appliances and automobiles, led by Midea Group, Boss Electric, Feike Electric, SAIC, Sophia, Qingdao Haier, etc. Recently, China Ping An, China Merchants Bank, financial management, grassland ecology, oriental gardens, cycle products (resources and materials), Beixin Building Materials, and Oriental Yuhong have also gradually made new highs.
The E-share “beautiful 50” innovation high echelon remains intact, but from the valuation level, the leading stocks PE, PB and other indicators have gradually become pressure. At present, the dynamic P/E ratio of these stocks is 36 times in Guizhou Moutai, 62 times in Hengrui Medicine, 19 times in Midea Group, 39 times in Hikvision, A26 times in BOE, 12 times in SAIC, and 16 times in Ping An, and the valuation has begun to surpass the industry. Central. In other words, this round of "beautiful 50" market is different from the previous value discovery and value investment, but a round of valuation premium rise. However, valuation stock premiums are not a bad thing for stock market sentiment. As the stock price bubble continues to enlarge, the market sentiment will be more optimistic. In other words, the future market will become more and more light, and the overall trend will continue to strengthen.
Reflected on the index, the leading SSE 50 index has entered the bull market trend. In the short term, as long as it does not fall below the 60-day moving average, the strong trend will continue and the new target will continue to be challenged. The current target points to a 10-year downward pressure. Line, about 15% of the current point. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the Shanghai Composite Index and the small and medium-sized index will gradually follow. In terms of trading strategy, we should actively deploy around “beautiful 50” and choose several areas such as consumption upgrade, middle and high-end manufacturing, environmental governance or resource products, and continue to adhere to the leading stock strategy.
Bank theme related fund
|Fund code||Fund abbreviation||Nearly three months of earnings||Handling fee||operating|
|160517||Boss China Securities Bank Index Classification||1.53%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Account opening|
|161723||China Merchants Bank Index Classification||1.38%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Account opening|
|001594||Tianhong China Securities Bank Index A||1.18%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Account opening|
|161121||E Fund Bank Rating||1.12%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Account opening|
Source: Eastern Fortune Choice data, Galaxy Securities, deadline: 2017-10-17