Stock index today continued narrow range finishing trend, the day amplitude of only 0.3%, the final closing slightly rose 0.29% to close at 3381.79 points. The two cities total turnover of 442.1 billion yuan, the majority of the industry plate down, steel, nonferrous metals, coal and other cyclical stocks sluggish, led the two cities, while the construction of four major bank shares of farmers and peasants were strong, respectively, up 2.11%, 1.60 %, 0.72%, 2.26%, PetroChina and Sinopec also rose 2.48%, 1.37%, blocking the role of significant.
For the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Founder Securities: 3410 is not the high point this year
The internal factors continue to improve, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, internal and external factors resonance, is conducive to A shares continue to expand space.
Whether it is the stock market under the A shares operating characteristics, or in the history of the broader market elastic space estimates, 3410 is not the high point this year.
In the past, the rules of the A-share operation of the important meeting time window are changing, and the new operation law under the reverse thinking is forming, that is, during the meeting period, it is expected to become a rare investment time window.
Operation, the light index, heavy stocks, balanced configuration, focusing on blue-chip, bargain-hunting brokerage, state reform, high-end equipment manufacturing and the bottom of low-cost blue chips, rallies holdings of early gains and outstanding losses.
State Securities:Rebound road still, profit-driven industry configuration
Into the listed company three quarterly results disclosure period, profit-driven industry in October configuration. October is the A shares of three quarterly centralized disclosure period, all the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen three quarterly will be disclosed on October 31 all completed. As of October 15, there have been "a large number of chemical companies, Bohui Paper, Qi Baibin, China Boulder, Red Star Development, Zhongyuan Special Steel, North Building Materials, Wanhua Chemical, Hongda Mining" and a total of 26 listed companies disclosed Three quarterly results. According to the disclosure of listed companies statistics, as of October 15, A-share performance increase in the company has 688, the data is clear to reduce the number of companies (143) nearly 4 times. Benefit from the "three-quarter rise in crude oil prices, supply side reform and consumer upgrades" and other factors, 2017 listed company three quarterly is expected to continue high boom.
Judging from the characteristics of the plate in October, the profit-driven industry configuration (gain excess returns) in October. In the history of the sector in October to obtain excess returns, mostly by the profit (three quarterly) driven. As of October 15, chemical, electronics is the number of three quarterly results pre-increase the number of companies in the first two industries, the industry's pre-increase of the company were 84, 75, together accounted for 23.11% of all pre-increase number of companies, From the industry boom, the three quarterly profit growth chain than the second quarter to enhance the industry, mainly in the "steel, building materials, paper, garden, liquor, home appliances, heavy trucks, auto parts, photovoltaic, LED, optical components" and so on.
Configuration, standing at the current point in time, we continue to optimistic about the A shares of the market view, A shares rebound window is still open. Overseas market positive factors are still: Trump government tax cuts in the delay after six months, the overall framework of tax reform finally available, although the larger than the previous framework to reduce tax cuts, but still the United States over the years The history of the largest tax cuts, is expected in November 13 before the introduction of a formal draft tax reform, the possibility of landing during the year, if the Trump tax reform will be regarded as the US economy into a " The domestic factors in October also showed positive changes: the possibility of a soft landing in the domestic economy in 2017 was large, and the implementation of the "downgrade" would help A-share earnings (ROE) Structural improvement, and the release of the flow of warmer signals, the next period of time the probability of tightening monetary policy is almost zero. As the meeting approaches, reform will raise risk appetite.
Shun Securities: A shares "beautiful 50" into the valuation premium period
It is noteworthy that this round of A shares "beautiful 50" record high order, is still the first leading or oligarchs leading, indicating that "beautiful 50" market is still in the main lift state. Like health services, led by Hengrui medicine, followed by Fosun Pharma, Ireland Eye, East China medicine. Information consumption areas, continue by the BOE A, Hai Kang Wei led by the rise, Han's laser, ZTE, Oufei light, such as precision legislation to follow. Alcohol food field, continue by Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye led up, Haitian taste industry, Yili shares, Angel Yeast to follow. Home appliances automotive field, led by the US group, the boss electrical appliances, flying electronics, SAIC, Sofia, Qingdao Haier to follow. Recently, the financial services of China Ping An, China Merchants Bank, environmental management of the Mongolian grass ecology, oriental gardens, cyclical products (resources and materials) of the North Building Materials, Oriental Rainbow, also gradually higher.
A shares "beautiful 50" high echelon to maintain integrity, however, from the valuation level, the leading shares of PE, PB and other indicators have been gradually pressure. At present, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of these stocks, Guizhou Maotai 36 times, 62 times the Hengrui Pharmaceutical, the United States 19 times the group, Hai Kang Wei as 39 times, AOP 26 East, SAIC Group 12 times, China Ping An 16 times the valuation has begun to go beyond the industry Center. In other words, this round of "beautiful 50" market is different from the previous value discovery and value investment, but a valuation premium rally. However, the stock market sentiment, the valuation premium is not a bad thing. The stock price bubble continues to enlarge, the market sentiment will be more optimistic. In other words, the future rally will be more and more light, the overall trend will continue to strengthen.
Reflected in the index, the leading SSE 50 index, has now entered the bull market trend running state, short term, as long as it does not fall through the 60 day moving average, strong trend will continue, and continue to challenge the new target, the current target of 10 years downward pressure Line, about 15% from the current point. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the Shanghai Composite Index and the small and medium-sized index will gradually follow. Trading strategy, should be around the "beautiful 50" active configuration, you can choose to upgrade consumption, high-end manufacturing, environmental management or resource products and other major areas, continue to adhere to the leading shares strategy.
Bank subject related fund
|Fund code||Fund abbreviation||Nearly three months of income||Fee||operating|
|160517||China Securities Bank Index||1.53%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Open an account to buy|
|161723||China Merchants Bank Index||1.38%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Open an account to buy|
|001594||Tianhong CSI Bank Index||1.18%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Open an account to buy|
|161121||Easy Fonda Bank grading||1.12%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Open an account to buy|
Source: Eastern Fortune Choice Data, Galaxy Securities, as of the date: 2017-10-17
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