Click to view GDP data (Source: Eastern Fortune Network)
Today, the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released. This year, international institutions have repeatedly raised China's GDP growth expectations, the global economic recovery is ignited the export of China's kinetic energy, and "sweet period" under the reform measures to strengthen the Chinese economy's endogenous energy.
Zhou Xiaochuan, president of the People's Bank of China, said: "This year's economic growth momentum has rebounded in the first half GDP growth rate of 6.9% in the second half is expected to achieve 7% to promote economic growth mainly from the rapid growth of household consumption. "
Tobias Adrian, financial adviser and head of monetary and capital markets at the IMF (International Monetary Fund), said in an exclusive interview with First Financial reporter that the quality of China's economic growth is improving. "China is also actively taking measures (regulatory and monetary policy) to maintain a reasonable credit growth, which contributes to financial stability."
China 's economy is steady and good
This year, international agencies are quite optimistic about China's economic assessment. IMF recently said that China's economic growth stabilized from the trade, commodity prices, confidence and other channels led to emerging markets and global growth momentum is expected in China 2017 GDP growth will rise to 6.8% in 2018 was 6.5% April this year, respectively, the forecast appeared 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points increase.
IMF said the 2017 growth forecast forecast reflects the Chinese economy stronger than expected, mainly benefiting from supply side reform and previous policy support; 2018 growth forecast increase is because the IMF believes that China will maintain a more supportive Policy (especially the higher public investment), to achieve 2020 than 2010 real GDP double goal.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that from January to August the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.4%, the consumer object gradually shifted from the traditional goods to services, so the service industry to accelerate the growth of the tertiary industry, the proportion of GDP from 15 years ago, about 40% For the current 55%. Economic growth to promote the overall stability of employment, 1 to 8 months new urban employment of about 10 million people. This is also the size of China's huge population needs to maintain the employment growth rate. At the same time, CPI grew 1.8%, PPI increased by 6.3%, nominal GDP growth of 9.5%.
For the third quarter GDP data is expected, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities chief economist Zhang Jun told the first financial reporter, export, make up inventory, infrastructure investment in the first half to support China's economy than expected kinetic energy, coupled with consumption And the service industry is relatively stable, so the third quarter GDP will be more reasonable and balanced structure, service and consumption contribution to GDP will rise.
Global "sweet period"
In addition to China's own economic momentum, this year's global economic recovery, especially in major overseas developed economies, rising, which also directly stimulated the Chinese exports.
Zhang Jun told reporters that the expansion of export growth has become an important contributor to this year's GDP growth in the first half of this year net exports led GDP growth rate of 0.3 percentage points. Correspondingly, the first half of this year, dollar-denominated export growth rebounded sharply to 8.5%.
He also believes that global trade growth in the fourth quarter will remain relatively stable in view of the recent two months of Morgan Stanley Global Trade Leadership Index (MSGTLI) stabilized rebound in the trend of global trade growth in the fourth quarter will remain relatively stable trend, will not be substantially shrinking, the fourth quarter of China's economic growth momentum Will last.
In particular, the recent major US economic performance is better, manufacturing PMI rose to 53% in September, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the new low since the financial crisis; the euro area in September manufacturing PMI rose to 58.2% 6 years and a half high, the service industry PMI rose to 55.6%, the economic fundamentals to keep good; Brazil and Russia and other emerging countries are also out of recession; late September Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) rose to 1500 points above A substantial increase of 21.3%, indicating that the current international trade market warming.
In addition to developed economies in Europe and America, "South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia and other neighboring countries and regions to maintain double-digit exports, foreign demand to contribute to China's export growth. China's BRIC trade growth in the near future can keep faster Growth. "Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping said.
He also told reporters that China's export trade structure gradually improved. September exports are still mainly mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products, but high-tech exports grew rapidly, the growth rate of 13.8%. Export growth to the central and western regions of the transfer, the first three quarters of the central and western 18 provinces and cities the overall growth rate of 24.7%.
In addition, Lian Ping mentioned that China's strong demand for imports, may reflect the current domestic economy is stable to the good, production and business improvement. September imports increased by 18.7%, up 5.2 percentage points over the previous month, to maintain volume and price trend; 1 to September imports increased by 17.3%. Imports of primary industrial primary products increased prices, imports of crude oil, iron ore prices rose 6.2% year on year, 14.6%.
The quality of economic growth is improved
It is worth mentioning that, in addition to the growth rate, the quality and sustainability of China's economic growth has also improved.
"From the perspective of money supply and credit, China has entered a deleveraging process since the beginning of this year, and the broad money supply M2 has continued to slow down, currently below 9%, and overall leverage has started to decline," Mr Chow said. Although the magnitude is small, the trend has taken shape.
He said, "After the financial crisis, China began to implement a proactive fiscal policy and monetary policy to deal with the crisis, so in the two years after 2009, China's debt accounted for a significant increase in the proportion of GDP, but it is worth it because the Chinese economy soon from the crisis Now, China needs to drop the leverage rate.
October 14 morning, September credit and social financial situation announced, September M2 grew 9.2%, has been a few months less than 10%. In August this year, the central bank issued the "second quarter of 2017 China monetary policy implementation report" (hereinafter referred to as "report") mentioned that the current M2 growth rate lower than in the past, the need for comprehensive and objective understanding - that M2 low growth Or will become the norm of the future, and does not mean that the support of the real economy is weakened.
"Report" also mentioned that the recent decline in M2 growth is to strengthen financial supervision, shorten the chain of funds to reduce the multi-level nesting a reasonable reflection. It is expected that with the deepening of leverage and the further return of finance to the real economy, the M2 growth rate lower than in the past may become a new norm.
In terms of financial stability, Zhou Xiaochuan said that in July this year, the National Financial Work Conference decided to set up a Financial Stability Development Committee, the future will focus on four aspects, one shadow bank, the second is the asset management industry, the third is the Internet finance, Is a financial holding company.
In addition to leveraging, to the production process is also one of the manifestations of rising economic quality. Zhou Xiaochuan said that China has begun to cut the excess capacity of the steel and cement industry, "the Chinese government hopes to promote structural reform and optimization, attach great importance to environmental protection, so voluntary reduction of 10% of steel and cement production capacity.Currently, the production capacity has been made positive Effect, is expected to be able to complete the established goals.
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