Black goods futures opened lower night decline, coke fell more than 5%, coking coal fell nearly 4%, hot rolled, iron ore, rebar fell more than 3%.
The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, the first three quarters, China's imports and exports of goods in volume and volume increase. Among them, iron ore, crude oil, soybean imports increased significantly.
Analysts believe that imports of goods behind the increase, mainly China's real economic improvement, China's supply side reform and other measures to boost the overall demand for the international market. In addition, the first three quarters of China and the "one way" along the country's import and export trade grew by 20.1%, higher than the growth rate of China's foreign trade over the same period. In the context of improved supply and demand, commodities in June after usher in a sharp rebound. How long can the above factors support the bulk of goods?
China's supply side reform boosts global demand
General Administration of Customs data show that the first three quarters of this year, China's iron ore, crude oil and natural gas and other commodity imports and prices go up. Among them, imports of natural gas increased by 22.3%, iron ore increased by 7.1%, crude oil increased by 12.2%, soybean increased by 15.5%, refined oil increased by 4.2%. In addition, China's import prices generally rose 10.6%.
General Administration of Customs spokesman Huang Songping said that the rise in commodity prices on China's import growth has contributed to the growth of China's real economy also contributed to import growth.
This year's commodity bull market and the import and export of strong resonance situation familiar.
As early as 2002 to 2012, the commodity market appeared ten years bull market, at that time, in the international commodity market, "China Moment", "China Price" phenomenon is remarkable. Since 2016, the bulk of goods has been out of two waves of a clear rebound, the "commodity cattle" behind the Chinese factors affect the geometry?
In September, for example, the data show that in September China's total imports and exports (RMB) grew 13.6%, the highest since July 2017 a new high. Among them, the export growth of 9%, imports increased by 19.5%. In terms of price, the average price of imported iron ore in September was $ 70.3 / tonne, up $ 6.4 higher than the previous month, up 10% qoq; the average price of imported crude oil was $ 367.5 / t, up $ 21.3 from the previous month The
Monita Zhongzheng, Zhang Lu, Yan Li believes that both China's import and export growth picked up, but the import recovery was significantly greater than the export, or indicates that the overall economic demand is still stable. In addition, the environmental and supply side of the reform caused by the "import substitution", but also to iron ore, steel, copper and other major commodity imports increased significantly.
"Exports, exports appear on the end of the season, but not less than market expectations, which is mainly driven by labor-intensive exports, which is precisely that the environmental control of the export supply constraints; It is expected that this shows that China's supply side management is providing demand for the world. "Industrial Research Jiang Dongying, Li Miaoxian pointed out.
To iron ore, for example, imports of iron ore in September for the first time exceeded the scale of 100 million tons, reaching 103 million tons, the highest since the record of iron ore imports a single month. Ping An Securities analyst Wei Wei believes that the domestic winter environmental protection limited production led to domestic enterprises, especially limited production areas of enterprises on the high grade of overseas ore demand increased significantly.
It is understood that China's domestic iron ore resources, most of the lower grade, but the cost is higher than abroad.
"In recent years, the domestic blast furnace is increasingly large, large blast furnace demand for iron ore more refined, so the demand for high-grade imported ore greatly increased in September is the environmental protection measures before landing the last neutral period, the steel companies will have ahead More imports to deal with environmental protection will be limited to a large number of imports also led to the September imports of ore prices rose in September than the average price of imported mining customs 70.29 US dollars / ton, the chain last month increased by 6.4 US dollars / ton. "Wei Wei said late expected Iron ore imports per month will be down, but the overall will remain high demand.
Associate Securities analyst Chen Yong pointed out that since the second half of last year, the global economic recovery, especially in Europe and the United States economic strength, so that China's export situation improved significantly, this trend is still continuing.
Commodity reproduction "China moment"
Universal with this hot and cold. From the species point of view, the current round of supply side of the reform and environmental protection limited impact of the key areas of steel, coal, colored is the current round of commodity rebound "leader." The Chinese market has become the stage of the main commodity pricing influence of the most prominent factors.
An investor engaged in foreign iron ore futures trading told the China Securities Journal reporter, the last couple of years, almost all look at the "inner disk" to do "outside the disk."
Beginning in 2016, a number of international commodity futures varieties to reproduce the "China Moment", that is, the price in Asia during the time often follow the domestic market in China, in the local period there is another situation. For example, in the 2016 non-ferrous metal bull market, LME variety of metal prices in Asia during the "up" Chinese prices, but to the London time began to callback.
A senior trader said that every commodity appears "China Moment", the price will rise sharply. The reason is closely related to China's change in the status of import and export in the world. Since 1993, after becoming a net importer of crude oil, China has gradually become a net importer of bulk commodity raw materials by 2010. Under the huge demand, China's demand is deeply involved in the global pricing mechanism. The emergence of "China Moment" on the commodity market is based on this trade pattern.
According to reports, from the global manufacturing industry, China's manufacturing industry is the most complete industrial system, a total of 31 categories, Chinese companies have involved, which is more robust than the United States, Japan; from the industrial scale, China 2010 More than the United States, China's manufacturing output scale of the world's first; from the product point of view, the world's more than 500 kinds of statistical industrial products, more than half of China's output in the world ranked first.
In the commodity, China's imports are mainly reflected in three major areas: First, the basic metals and minerals, such as copper, nickel, iron ore, etc .; Second, agricultural products, such as soybeans, corn; Third, energy and chemical products, Coal, PTA, natural gas and so on.
Since the beginning of this year, China's imports of ultra-supermarket market expectations, 9 months, 7 months data super market expectations. What does this beautiful import data mean?
Jiang Dongying, Li Miaoxian analysis pointed out that China's supply side management is to provide global demand, mainly in the following two aspects. First, China through the supply side of the reform, environmental protection and other ways to restrict the growth of exports, thereby inhibiting China's global demand for consumption. Second, in the domestic investment and consumption growth rate did not significantly decline under the premise of the supply side of the reform, environmental protection and production constraints will be filled by the import gap. In addition, the supply side of the management pushed up the domestic price, and then pulled down the spread inside and outside, and even lead to some of the goods inside and outside the spread upside down, stimulating traders to import goods store behavior.
How to go in the fourth quarter
Then the fourth quarter, under the influence of China's demand, the performance of commodities will be how?
"In terms of demand, we believe that the fourth quarter of domestic demand will show a strong tenacity, industrial enterprises will increase the high profits of production will gradually release, industrial growth is expected to rebound rebound." UNITA Securities said.
It is noteworthy that the fourth quarter of last year's high base or will follow the growth of trade cast a shadow.
Monita research is that, without over-tangency in the short-term fluctuations in the data, in the "one way" initiative, driven by China's trading partners are further diversified, the trade structure is also being further improved, which will be China's foreign trade competitiveness The long-term improvement to lay a good foundation.
"September's trade performance once again enhanced the macroeconomic optimism, both inside and outside the need for resonance, but also for the future economic growth to provide a substantive basis for trade improvement and behind the implicit production and investment enthusiasm to repair, coupled with the trade environment and The domestic macro environment escort, we insist on the real economy optimism. "Northeast Securities analyst Xu Jun said.
Specific investment, Wei Wei suggested that investors can be concerned about the high value-added products accounted for a larger iron ore self-sufficiency rate of TISCO stainless steel, high-end exports accounted for higher performance of listed companies, and is expected to directly benefit from the heating season Environmental protection limited production, performance flexibility of the stock and so on. (Source: China Securities Journal)