The central bank open market today, net delivery of 100 billion yuan, the third day of large net put. China's central bank today, 80 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operations, 60 billion 14-day reverse repurchase operations, today there will be 40 billion yuan reverse repurchase expires.
Open market a series of operations, by the parties concerned.
October 16, the People's Bank announced that the day open market to carry out 7 days 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, the successful rate was flat at 2.45%. On the same day, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of the tender for the 2021 central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposit (five) bidding, the current operation of 80 billion yuan, the period of 3 months (91 days) Day on October 16, 2017, the winning rate was 4.42%.
Market research has shown that the recent central bank has been "to maintain liquidity is basically stable" as the center to carry out the operation, through the flexible use of a variety of open market tools "peak load", to maintain market funds "not loose", to guide money And the scale of social financing is reasonable to grow.
Statistics show that the central bank this week, a total of 525.5 billion yuan of funds due, including 80 billion 7-day reverse repurchase, 90 billion 28-day reverse repurchase, at the same time, October 17 and 18, respectively, 128 billion Yuan, 227.5 billion medium-term loan convenience (MLF) funds due.
In fact, in order to maintain market liquidity stability, and guide the parties reasonable expectations, since the National Day holiday, the central bank in the open market reverse repurchase net return funds at the same time, through the MLF operation to provide the right amount of incremental liquidity. The central bank open market operations show that the week of October 9 to 13, the central bank open market total net return of 240 billion yuan of funds, at the same time, October 13, the central bank to carry out 498 billion 1-year MLF operation, interest rates unchanged at 3.2% The
Market analysts said the central bank to carry out the 498 billion yuan MLF, hedge $ 439.5 billion MLF expires, also put 58.5 billion yuan long-term funds, highlighting the central bank's liquidity care, help to further stabilize the market expected.
CITIC Securities believes that the central bank to consider the full range of funds in the month of the month to start to do 498 billion yuan MLF, reasonable arrangements for incremental funds to maintain the neutral level of liquidity moderate; MLF operating rate remained at 3.2%, "lock Short length "to continue to strengthen the guidance of long-term interest rates. The study further stated that the open market operation since October to maintain a full hedge or a small net return of the fine-tuning operation to maintain liquidity in the case of stabilizing short-term liquidity fluctuations, monetary policy remains stable neutral orientation unchanged, in October Will remain moderately neutral.
With the National Day holiday, the funds stable across the season, coupled with the central bank to maintain liquidity is basically stable, the market capital of a change before the holiday pattern, showing a modest trend of elasticity. Data show that since October 9, the Shanghai interbank interest rate (Shibor) short-term varieties of interest rates fell significantly before the holiday. For example, overnight interest rate by the National Day before the 2.9% high, continued to decline to about 2.6% of the recent.
Shen Wanhong Securities believes that, as a whole, the central bank monetary policy operation to maintain the funding side of the "not loose" pattern, issued before the holiday "targeted down", the first day after the pause open market operations to reverse the funds face loose expected , The face of funds in October is still expected to stabilize the main, with the emergence of economic pressure, liquidity margins will slowly appear, the market will gradually reverse the pessimistic expectations of the funds side.
However, due to the existence of several important factors in the face of capital in late October, the short-term market capitalization will fluctuate again, and it is still particularly concerned by the research institutions.
On the one hand, October is an important quarterly fiscal tax payment month, and the tax scale is often larger than the other quarterly tax payment months. Changjiang Securities Research said that taking into account the corporate profits are still continuous improvement, is expected in October this year, the size of new financial deposits at least 600 billion yuan level, which the impact of large capital side. On the other hand, in October there were nearly 1.6 trillion yuan of interbank deposits due, and from the beginning of October, issued 3 months and longer period of interbank deposit will be new years, small and medium-sized banks rolling release certificates of power may be sufficient, So there are views that this will also increase the liquidity pressure to some extent, pushing the short-term interest rate level.
Prior to the convening of the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee in the third quarter of 2017 regular meeting pointed out that pay close attention to international and domestic economic and financial operation of the latest trends and changes in international capital flows, insist on steady progress in the overall tone of work, to adapt to the new economic development, Stable and neutral monetary policy, the comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain the basic stability of liquidity, and guide the scale of monetary credit and social financing a reasonable growth.
In this regard, Guotai Junan Securities fixed income research director Zhou Wenyuan said the central bank once again stressed that "the maintenance of liquidity is basically stable," which from the operation of the central bank in September and the actual operation of the money market is evident. The first week of September, the central bank will restart the 28-day reverse repurchase operations and over-renewal MLF, in order to maintain stability across the quarter of funds. However, from the whole month, the central bank through the reverse repurchase, MLF, financial operations and other operations, stacking tax, government bonds issue payment and other factors, the market funds to maintain a tight balance, the end of the season when the high price of funds, Overall the market is full of funds.
Kyushu Securities view that both the central bank monetary policy, open market operations, or market capital movements, are still "stable" as the core, "not loose is not tight" is the main tone. On the one hand, September 30, the central bank announced the "targeted down" policy and the October 13 over the renewal of MLF, are reflected in the central bank for monetary policy stability and stability, monetary policy there is no possibility of further tightening; , Due to shed reform, infrastructure investment and other support for the economy, making the economic downward pressure is not obvious, monetary policy does not exist "flood water flooding" the possibility. Therefore, the study said that in the "stable neutrality" under the overall tone, the central bank through the pre-tune and the expected management to control the funding side, making the market in the "not loose", the funds continue to "tight" or " Loose "will not appear. (Source: Financial Times)