Click to view>>>Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect funds flow
The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission recently agreed to quadruple the daily quota of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. The daily quota of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect will be expanded from RMB 13 billion to RMB 52 billion, and the daily quota of Hong Kong Stock Connect will be expanded from RMB 10.5 billion to RMB 42 billion by May 1, 2018. Effective from the date of use.
Four times expansion is more like MSCI "Pole Vault"
Someone may ask, what is the significance of the quota expansion? After all, from the historical data, in addition to just opening the time, no matter whether it is the northbound funds or the southward funds, there is no sign of “expanding” the quota.
Shen Wanhongyuan analysts believe that the logic to increase the single-day quota for interconnection for trading needs is not valid. At present, the daily quotas for the shares of the Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Hong Kong stocks are very sufficient. The situation of insufficient quotas is very rare. Except for the one-day quota of the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the other quotas are basically sufficient. Based on the analysis of the proportion of the quotas used by the shares of the Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Hong Kong Stock Connect, it is found that the 90-digits of the Shanghai Stock Connect and the Shenzhen Stock Connect are only 15% and 10%, with an average of 4%-5%. The Hong Kong Stock Connect's quota use center is higher than the land stock market, and the capital is relatively stronger in the south, but the 90-digit quota of the quota is no more than 25%, indicating that whether it is Hong Kong Stock Connect or Lu Share, 90% of the transactions. The daily quota is less than 25%, so the logic to increase the amount of demand for trading is not valid.
The analyst further pointed out that the increase in interconnection and single-day quota is more due to the consideration of MSCI's inclusion of A-shares. In the future, the unexpected content may be concentrated in two steps and will be changed into A-shares, increase market capitalization factor and increase mid-market A. Stock index component.
In terms of time, May 14th and August 13th are the time points for the quarterly adjustment of the MSCI index. The MSCI high probability in these two time points will provide feedback on whether to increase the market capitalization factor and increase the mid-cap A share component.
Last year, tracking the scale of MSCI's active foreign investment far exceeded the scale of passive foreign investment. In fact, active foreign investment has accelerated the allocation of MSCI targets through the land stocks since October last year. In the second half of 2017, the A-share white horses performed well. At present, if MSCI raises the A-share market value factor or increases the A-share market, the active funds will bring considerable marginal allocation funds to the market.
Analysts suggest that given the current Sino-US game environment, MSCI may face certain constraints, but at the latest will be feedback in August, investors can continue to pay attention.
Expected arrival time
According to estimates, the MSCI Global Index fund is $11 trillion, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is $1.6 trillion. According to the MSCI inclusion criteria in June 2017, MSCI included A-share incremental funds of RMB 740 to 105.5 billion. According to the two-step timetable, the incremental funds in May and August will reach RMB 370 to RMB 53 billion respectively. about.
Shen Wan Hongyuan Securities analysts suggested that investors should pay close attention to the three major situations in which MSCI will exceed the expectations of A shares in the future.
The first is to incorporate the rhythm beyond expectations and focus on the financial and food and beverage industries.If MSCI announces the one-time inclusion of A-shares, the incremental funds included in May may reach RMB 740-105 million in one-time, and the rhythm may exceed market expectations; according to the original plan and the adjusted stock component in February, incremental capital inflows The top industries are banks, non-silver and food and beverage.
Second, the scale of incremental funds exceeded expectations.If MSCI announces the expansion of the A-share 5% market capitalization factor, the overall incremental capital of A-shares will increase.
Finally, it is to exceed the expectations of the target, focusing on pharmaceutical biology, real estate, media, computer and non-ferrous industries.If MSCI announces that the index component is included in the mid-cap A-shares, the new mid-cap A-shares are expected to be the first to greet the active incremental fund layout, which constitutes the expected difference. If you consider the newly added mid-market target, according to the MSCI International A-Share Index in June 2017, the market value of the mid-cap stocks of traditional Chinese medicine, real estate, media, computer and non-ferrous metals is relatively high.
In terms of subject investment, Guojin Securities analyst pointed out thatInvestors can focus on companies that are “scarce, high-quality, and have super-brand value”.The analyst believes that foreign-invested institutions allocate A-shares, focusing on companies that are “scarce, high-quality, and have super-brand value”. In terms of sectors, the constituents that are potentially included in MSCI are large-cap blue-chip stocks, and the “consumption, finance” and other sectors account for a large proportion. From the perspective of configuration style, according to the investment preference of foreign-invested institutions (QFII/RQFII) after entering the A-share market, the potential incorporated companies should focus on “scarce, high-quality, super-brand value” companies.The “Super Brand Index” deserves attention.
On the whole, in the context of China's financial opening up and speeding up, the impact of the inclusion of MSCI on the A-share market will be more milestone. From the perspectives of incremental funds, the proportion of institutional investors, and the index adjustment rules for the suspension of the resumption of trading, China's A-share market is accelerating its marketization and internationalization. It is true that when offshore funds become an important force in the market, the volatility risks of global market linkages are also increasing. It can be said that the future MSCI China Index will become one of the important coordinates for judging the hot and cold of the global market.
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