Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed lower today, closing down 1.53%, closing at 3110.65 points, once fell below 3100 points intraday. The total transaction volume of the two cities was 450.7 billion yuan, the majority of the industry sector fell, and the Hainan plate reversed the trend. (Click to view>>Hainan stock market)
Analysts focused on analyzing the forecast data of the GEM quarterly report this week. It is generally believed that the performance of the quarterly report has improved markedly and is an important catalyst for the recent depressed market sentiment. For example, Haitong Securities pointed out that the GEM quarterly forecast data is brilliant because of the outstanding performance of large market capitalization companies, investors' expectations and allocations have entered a rational stage, and the style is expected to be stable; Xingye Securities stated that the turning point of the partial target of the advance notice of the GEM has already appeared. Big innovation provides performance support.
Haitong Securities: ready to go
Haiyu Securities Yu Yuen root team pointed out: Since April high-frequency mesoscopic data rebounded, the fundamentals entered the expected correction period, and it is expected that double-digit profit growth in 18 years will support the market upwards. More than half of the monthly inflows of Lukangtong’s northbound funds, which are more sensitive to fundamentals, have exceeded the monthly average of 17 years.
At the same time, the GEM's quarterly advance forecast data was excellent due to the excellent performance of large-cap companies. Although the GEM's quarterly advance notice showed that there was a rebound in earnings, the GEM was down by 4.0% since April, indicating that the market is aware of the structural factors behind the rebound in the earnings of the GEM. Investors expect and configure into a rational stage, and the style is expected to stabilize. The core factor in determining style is fundamental. In April, the performance announcement will make the style more balanced, and the performance will be king. Value and growth supporting companies will have opportunities.
In terms of investment strategy, the market is ready to go. In April, the macro data will confirm that the fundamentals are not bad and the price/performance ratio is better. Maintaining the pre-judgment: The market is tossing in the first quarter and up in the second quarter. Leading value grows in partnership with leaders such as banking, communications, electronics, and medicine.
Industrial Securities: Continue to Attack Big Innovation
The team of Industrial Securities Wang Delun and Zhang Qichen pointed out that under the continuous promotion of the trade war background and policies, the major direction of major innovations has become clearer: 1) U.S. trade sanctions have in fact further highlighted the need for China to support the development of related high-end technology industries from the national level. With regard to sexuality and urgency, the large innovative industry is expected to continue to receive rapid development at the national level. 2) Policy warmth is more clearly defined. After discussions or rumors such as the listing of Unicorn, rapid IPO, and CDR issue, the recent four The ministry issued a document to reduce the income tax of integrated circuit companies; 3) Big innovation still has advantages in the position structure. 4) The inflection point for some of the targets in the quarterly advance report of GEM is now available, providing performance support for major innovations.
In the second quarter, there was a large probability that structural markets were dominated by major innovations. In our monthly report in April, we pointed out that there are some potential risks in the second quarter that require attention, which may lead to overall market pressure: 1) Financial leverage is a long way to go, and the second quarter may be a window of policy focus, and liquidity is under pressure to tighten. . 2) Phased impacts of external risks such as trade wars and Syrian war on risk appetite. 3) The impact of the US rate hike and US stocks adjustment on the global capital market and liquidity environment. 4) Pay close attention to the fact that the performance does not reach the expected risk, especially the stocks or sectors whose market expectations are too high or the positions of the institutions are too heavy. Based on the above factors, we judge that the market may not have an overall increase, and it is more likely to present a structural market with major innovation as the main line.
In terms of investment strategy, we continue to favor the great innovations in the context of trade wars and policies that continue to be promoted: electronics (consumer electronics and semiconductor industry chain), communications (5G), military industry, machinery (core leading enterprises in the fine molecular industry), and innovative drugs (policies) The reform will promote innovative drugs to gradually change from "new China" to "new global") and electric vehicles (driven by consumption upgrades, the electric vehicle industry will transition from policy-driven to endogenous drive); short-term Syrian tension will intensify, oil, gold and Military and other industries are expected to become a safe haven for funds in the short term. The core assets that still have a cost-effective ratio, such as financial and real estate sector leaders, will also have relative returns.
Guosen Securities: Accelerating the opening up of the financial industry, exceeding the expectations of the GEM
Guosen Securities pointed out that the Boao Forum speech will have a milestone significance for opening up the financial industry to the outside world, and the CDR policy that the Supermarket expects to land quickly in March also demonstrates our determination and execution of opening up. We believe that for the A-share market, the opening up of the financial industry will help guide the financial industry to serve the real economy more effectively. The diversification of financial resources will help A-share high-quality listed companies gain more competitiveness in the international industrial chain division. This year will It is the starting point for A-share valuations to repair slow cows.
In terms of investment strategy, in the short term, the performance of the GEM has basically been disclosed, and the performance of the first quarter reportedly improved. It is also an important catalyst for the recent sluggish market sentiment. It is recommended that the follow-up attention be paid to the continuity of the performance of the GEM. The overall fundamentals of the current listed companies are still improving. With the continued performance of the company's future performance, A-share slow bull market is still worth the wait.
Tianfeng Securities: The next two months will be the critical period for this year's finals
Tianfeng Securities Xu Wei team said that from the market level, there are currently some important indexes in the vicinity of the year line, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 value stocks. From the perspective of market technical analysis, the line is often seen as the CBBC boundary. These important indexes have come near the year line and have repeatedly competed. However, there is still no clear direction. We believe that the next 1-2 months will be the key period for the investment decisions this year.
Judging from the logic of market operation, the economic performance in the next two months will directly determine the South China Industrial Product Price Index and the Treasury bond futures, and then determine whether the market style is worth or growth. If the economy is weakened to a certain degree, the market may experience some degree of volatility and continue to shift to a growth style. Conversely, if the economy strengthens and the prices of industrial products rise, the market will end the current adjustment and return to the value style.
In this environment, we believe that the stability of the performance of the growth stocks relative to the value stocks will be strengthened, and the downside of the interest rate level will also be more favorable to the growth stocks (logically, the growth stocks may last longer than the value stocks). The extraordinary style of growth will be further strengthened. We are optimistic about two kinds of growth stocks: one is the improvement of prosperity, including software, new energy vehicles, 5G, military, and pharmaceuticals, and the other is the valuation of low-level, including media. , environmental protection and so on.
China Merchants Securities: Market Concerns and Highlights of Messrs
The team of China Merchants Securities Zhang Xia and Chen Gang stated that even if the industry and the sector with upward trend in performance will adjust due to internal and external shocks in the short term, the first rebound and new high plate must be the sector with accelerated performance this year. At present, according to the data from the perspective of Mesocosm, the plate that performance may accelerate is centered on the core concept of “data”. This year, we are very much convinced that the progress of science and technology has triggered many key changes. Big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and Internet of Things technologies have begun to be quickly deployed and applied in various industries. The outbreak of data brought about a significant increase in hardware and software requirements. Observing mesodata, we found that integrated circuits (double-up production and sales, accelerated autonomy of domestic production), mobile data (data flow demand continues to rise), and CNC machine tools (industry demand is improving ), memory (higher prices) and so on. At the same time, according to the performance forecast of the GEM Board 2018Q1, industries with significant earnings improvement are concentrated in the media, communications, and computers.
We believe that the new industry cycle driven by technology is nurturing the explosion of data flow brought about by smart revolutions and machine evolution. Digital infrastructure drives the sustained and rapid growth of production, sales and orders of related industries. It is recommended to pay attention to medium-term investment opportunities brought about by the upgrading of industries such as semiconductor/PCB/IDC/optical communication/artificial intelligence/digital control equipment and robot/big data cloud computing. In addition, despite the recent correction, we are still optimistic about the relatively certain relative income opportunities of medical care and military workers this year. From the standpoint of style, in the case of large disturbances in the second quarter, Baima Technology, due to its reasonable valuation and high certainty of performance, we recommend that investors pay close attention. Reiterate the full-year recommendation for "Scarce Technology 50."
GF Securities: The Three-Level Meaning of Hainan Free Trade Port
The team of GF Securities Liao Ling and Dai Kang stated that we believe that Hainan’s commitment to building an international free trade port fully demonstrates China’s major measures to expand its reform and opening up.
About the three-tiered essence of Hainan Free Trade Port Construction: 1) What is the difference between Hainan Free Trade Zone and Free Trade Port? The free trade port has a wider region, a greater degree of free circulation, and a more special mode of operation; 2) Why Hainan has built an international free trade port? There are mainly three levels of policy, location, and industry considerations; 3) Which industrial chains took the lead in the initial stage of the free trade port exploration? We combined Hainan's key industry planning and the development orientation of the free trade port, and put forward the key benefit industrial chain of “infrastructure priority, ‘tourism+’, and protection and navigation”.
At the thematic and strategic level, we believe that Hainan's free trade port policy will help increase the market's risk appetite for the Hainan plate, and it is recommended to focus on benefiting the industry chain: 1) Main line 1: Infrastructure is given priority. The focus of the proposal is to focus on the transportation of land, sea and air (ports, expressways, and aviation). 2) Main line 2: "Tourism +" based. On the one hand, it is recommended to pay attention to traditional tourism elements (hotels, scenic spots, catering, etc.); on the other hand, it is recommended to focus on cultural and sports (race, gambling, games, etc.), agriculture, medical, and other derivative industrial chains. 3) Main line 3: Central protection. The proposal focuses on such areas as landscaping.
Changjiang Securities: Why Recent Investors Will Pay More Attention to Trading
Chang Jiang Securities Bao Chengchao pointed out that during the past period of time, the Changjiang strategy found in the exchange process with investors that investors valued the importance of the transaction, which is different from the idea of reconfiguration in 2017. We believe there are three main reasons:
1) The “one-sided” market in 2017 made investors worry about style investment becoming the main line. Therefore, when the short-term sentiment is “one-sided”, it is easy to over-interpret the style of investment; 2) The fuzzy trend of different sectors makes investors anticipate and unstable. In the value sector, several stocks with lower-than-expected results have caused investors to worry about the inflection point of value style performance. On the other hand, from the perspective of a quarterly forecast, the performance trend of the growth sector seems to be a “stocking effect” rather than a “plate effect”; 3) The repeated expectation of economic and liquidity made investors lack consensus on the quarterly market. Judging from the forward-looking indicators of the macro data, the economy has already had consensus expectations of downside, and in the short-term we observed that some of the Mesocosm data are still strong. On the other hand, liquidity and policy are expected to start at the beginning of the second quarter. There is obviously a trend of tightening from the previous quarter. Investors expect this quarter to be unstable.
In terms of industry allocation, it focuses on the financial and military sector investment opportunities. After undergoing the adjustment of the previous market, the current industry's overall valuation has developed in a relatively more rational direction. On the whole, we believe that we should continue to insist on diluting styles, deepening values and evenly deploying along the main line of prosperity. While the large financial sector experienced a period of previous market adjustments, the current valuation has returned to a reasonable range, and the sector's economy has a certain degree of certainty. At the same time, the leader is also conducive to the landing of the policy, and is the only choice in the value sector. The elastic variety is the devaluation of the military sector. The current valuation and allocation of the military sector are all at the bottom. The fundamentals are expected to improve in a chain, and will also benefit from the promotion of policies. At the same time, attention was paid to the cyclical sector where valuations were significantly lower.