Jufeng Investment: Why the market continues to fall
Today, the two cities opened higher, and then turned around and then turned around and turned all green. Under the leadership of the securities sector, financial stocks once strengthened to stimulate the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, but the GEM continued to fall in the index and the performance was flat, and in the subsequent weak market. Go lower again. In the afternoon, the GEM once plummeted, and other sectors fell. The index fell to a new low in the day. Since then, financial stocks have re-expressed, and the index has gradually stopped falling and pumping back, but it still shows high and low performance throughout the day.
All day, the index opened higher and lower, continuing the recent consolidation trend. On the disk, financial stocks were slightly supported by the whole day, while the theme stocks were seriously divided and the GEM was undergoing major adjustments. In the news, China's first quarter GDP data was released, up 6.8% year-on-year. In March, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year. The economic growth rate remained stable and supported the market. Technically, the Shanghai index continued to adjust downwards, the ChiNext fell sharply and fell below the annual line, and the short-term focus was all down, and the index still has room for correction.
In general, under the influence of the ZTE incident, today's theme stocks have fallen, driving the GEM to fall, and financial stocks still play an effective role. In fact,The Shanghai Stock Index has the need to continue to sort out, and there is a callback demand under the relatively strong GEM. Therefore, under the superposition of indirect factors, the index has ushered in a continuous decline.However, for the GEM, the support under the annual line is still relatively strong. The current policy inclination and the pursuit of funds are strong, and the low-slow opportunities below the annual line are still expected. At the moment, what needs to be done while maintaining the position is to actively conduct stock selection, focusing on selecting the main line of performance and the relevant targets of the growth route. Because once the index stops falling, these targets will rebound first.
In operation, the index has repeated, and the short-term continue to focus on the GEM index, mainly based on the low absorption of growth stocks.
Xiangcai Securities: It is easier to identify the true leader in differentiation
Today, the two stock indexes opened slightly higher. After that, all the major indexes showed a trend of volatility and low, until the closing at noon. In the afternoon, the stock index once again showed a diving. After seeing the all-day low at 13:32, the shock rebounded and the market fell again. The hot spot: brokers Banks, breweries and other sectors showed resistance to decline, and the rest turned green; overall: today's market shows a clear adjustment.
Since the market last week was running near the pressure level, we continued to remind the GEM and the sub-new stocks in the blog post, and the market has made significant adjustments in the two trading days this week. Today's major indexes are more comprehensively adjusted. Significantly increased, and our pre-judgment against the market is basically the same. Therefore, investors are reminded again to pay attention to avoiding the risk of excessively large varieties in the early stage.
For the Hainan plate, which was hot yesterday, 21 stocks were up by the news, and the upside momentum was abundant. It became the most anticipated sector this week. Today, the sector has a certain differentiation in the environment of weak market adjustment, but there are still several stocks. Daily limit. Then, because of the differentiation, the market of the plate will die in the womb?
For this kind of differentiation trend, we think it is normal. In the process of the 2013 Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the 2017 Xiong'an concept, similar situations have occurred, and not all stocks will continue to rise, only Among them, the leader has the momentum to continue to rise. Therefore, Xiang Bo Securities Fan Bo believes that the differentiation is not terrible, which makes it easier for investors to identify the leading concept of Hainan Free Trade Port. In the near future, the sector does not rule out new waves, and active investors pay close attention.
To sum up a sentence: Re-emphasize that the new stocks that have risen in the previous period need to pay attention to risks, and the White Horse stocks are still in the process of repairing. The hot Hainan plate has the opportunity to make waves again. Aggressive investors need to focus on the leading varieties. Key words: leading.
Guangzhou Bandung: Resilience to the disappointment of the sentiment
The broad market index maintained a weak adjustment. The decline in risk appetite has led to a disappointment of funds and self-reinforcement. Investors are advised to be cautious and to properly consider the band operation strategy under the premise of controlling positions.
Liquidity is the core constraint, which determines that the index is difficult to have a systematic market. The Sino-US trade war and geopolitics are the core drivers of risk appetite. That is to say, in the case that the difficult index has a rising opportunity, the risk preference falls back to the strategy of disappointing the on-site funds selection. From the perspective of behavioral psychoanalysis, the mutual reinforcement of disappointment and departure sentiment will lead to the strengthening of panic departure emotions. That's why we have always stressed why we need to control the position of participation in order to avoid the possibility of irrational panic leading to full quilt.
From the perspective of fundamental analysis, the index is back to around 3100 points and there is valuation support. On the other hand, from the technical analysis point of view, the 3000-3100 operating range has become the medium- and long-term support area of the index. Therefore, we believe that the index is still facing the uncertainty factor, but it is still expected to exist after the adjustment. Opportunity. Therefore, investors should be able to consider adopting a strategy of step-by-step batch intervention in some oversold stocks under the premise of controlling the overall participation position.
On the whole, the Bandung Securities Research Center believes that liquidity is the core factor in determining the market. In the case that the money-making effect is not strong, the investor's trading behavior is more biased to wait and see. This will lead to a certain degree of selling pressure on the market. Therefore, our view is that the overall market style will still be operated under the structural and band-based tone to maintain the game opportunity.
Huaxun Investment: The trade war is not extinguished, the index is falling across the board.
After the opening of the index today, there was a short-term resistance in the morning, and then it was all the way down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the platform's support of 3,100 points, once again testing the support of the previous low of 3062, the GEM index came to the gap, and the big probability will be replenished tomorrow. On the plate, the Hainan plate ebbs all the way, and the shares of the Straits are 20 points of the amplitude of the sky floor; the brokerage, gold, and agricultural sectors are slightly intensified. On the news front, the Ministry of Commerce implemented temporary anti-dumping measures against the original US import sorghum. It is the trigger for the market to worry about the renewed trade war. On the whole, individual stocks fell more and more, weak market structure, paying attention to the emergence of new money-making effects. In operation, after the panic has fallen, there should be a counter-pumping. To continue to kill tomorrow, it should be an opportunity to bargain.
Source: The market adjustment is intensifying
The four major indices opened higher on Tuesday morning and then oscillated lower. The decline in the afternoon was significantly deepened. Among them, the main board refreshed the intraday low, and the GEM fell below the 1800-point mark. The market trend is really ugly. On the disk, the Hainan plate fell back and fell sharply. The stocks in the sector rose more and more, but HNA Innovation and Xindazhou A continued to be strong. Affected by the US seven-year ban on ZTE, related stocks fell across the board. Fortunately, the domestic chip theme has been shown throughout the day, and North Huachuang and Changchuan Technology have also risen. Overall, market cautious mood has risen significantly, and individual stocks have shown signs of decline.
From a technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and then oscillated downwards. On time, the trend of scissors was on the second line of yellow and white, indicating that the short-term profit-making effect is not prominent. In addition, the fall of the index in the afternoon is accompanied by an increase in the volume, indicating that the market panic has increased. The hourly level has reached a new low, and the moving average system has not improved significantly, and the MACD indicator has not been repaired. The short-term pressure period is expected to continue. The Shenzhen Component Index was dragged down by the main board, and the callback was obvious. The short-term risk was intensified. The GEM has a non-resistive decline in time-sharing, and the daily line has replenished some gaps left over from the previous period.
Sources received evaluation: Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been higher since they opened higher. They are now close to the low point of 3062 in the previous stage. There is a high probability of technical back pumping in the market. However, the Shanghai index is shrinking again. Without the support of quantity and energy, the index will continue to test the previous lows, and then superimpose the two gaps in the upper and upper positions and the double suppression of the short-term moving average. The rebound of the main board is difficult. In the GEM, the yin fell below the double-line support, and the closing has already covered some of the gaps below. In the context of emotional venting, the remaining gap is expected to be replenished in the near future. In view of the relatively deep correction of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today, the performance of individual stocks is also in the same place. In the context of the lack of improvement in panic sentiment, the operation needs to be seen more and less, paying attention to avoiding risks.
And letter investment: unicorn companies landing or bring siphon effect
From the perspective of time, the time for the unicorn company to land in A shares has been determined, what will it bring to the market? How does it affect the market? Investors should pay close attention to it.
Next Tuesday, A shares will usher in the first unicorn under the "Unicorn New Deal" - WuXi PharmaTech.
According to the information of the Shanghai Stock Exchange: On April 16, 2018, WuXi PharmaTech’s prospectus issued on the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed that the release date is April 24, that is, the subscription date of the new shares is April 24, which is next Tuesday. Our research believes that because of its certain background, its impact on the market may bring about a significant siphon effect.
Hexin Research Tracks the changes in various market funds since 2018 (February 1 to April 16). It is found that in the oscillating operation of the 3062-3587 area, the market's main funds appear to be hesitant, if compared with the large single and small In terms of single changes, the super large singles and the main capital running trajectory change, and the small and medium-sized units have positive values from time to time. It shows that the main capital of the Shanghai and Shanghai stocks and the large single net value change still reflect negative values in general, and the small and medium single positive values are displayed. Game concept and variety stocks are the mainstay. Judging from the change in the daily average volume of the market, there is very little time for the total daily transaction volume of 500 billion. This shows that the stock market game behavior is still evident. .
One characteristic of the stock game is that the concentration or conversion of market funds to a small number of stocks is a feature, and if the unicorn companies are listed in the near future, the possibility of siphoning may increase.
The so-called siphon effect, historically related to the Olympic effect, mainly refers to the strong attraction of the Olympic host city will attract investment from other places, thus slowing down the development of these areas. The siphon phenomenon is caused by the difference between the liquid molecules' gravitational force and the potential energy, that is, the water column pressure difference is used to make the water rise and then flow to a low position. Since the nozzle surface is subjected to different atmospheric pressures, the water will flow from the pressure side to the pressure side until the atmospheric pressure on both sides is equal, the water level in the container becomes the same height, and the water stops flowing. The water in the container can be quickly withdrawn by siphoning. If we introduce it into the market, there have been siphon effects in history, such as the absolute possession of the market's supervised stocks last year, the emergence of plate policies and the Hainan plate in recent days. From the historical cycle, the trajectory of the siphon effect is also obvious, that is, sometimes longer and sometimes shorter.
The impact of the current A-share market is very obvious. For example, the performance of China's CDR policy and trade war
Change. If the overall market volume of the current market is still below 500 billion yuan, if the scale of lifting the ban is increasing or factors change, new varieties attract funds, and the market volume can still be the same, the siphon effect of the market will be obvious; Therefore, it can be judged that if the subsequent total amount is not good and the new type of enterprise is listed, there will be a significant siphon effect, and the differentiation of the stock price and the contrast between the risk of holding the stock and the opportunity will be increased.
According to the corresponding research, the cultivation and development of the gazelle enterprises in various places can be regarded as the reserve force of the unicorn enterprises, and to some extent, the quasi-unicorn enterprises that are in the stage of cultivating and growing. According to the information of China Securities Network, in recent days, many places have intensively introduced a new policy on cultivating gazelle enterprises, especially in financial and financial support. As a representative of the new economy and a “quasi-unicorn” enterprise, the gazelle enterprise is exploding. In fact, the volume and valuation of the “unicorn” enterprise announced by the Ministry of Science and Technology has increased the market attention. In addition, the gazelle enterprises that may be supported by the localities in the future will have an obvious impact on the Chinese economy and will be reflected in the capital market. It will also reflect the resonance of opportunity and risk, because not all unicorn companies will eventually develop successfully.
In general, the pace of unicorn companies entering the A-share market is approaching. As investors, on the one hand, they must see relevant market opportunities, and at the same time prevent the possible siphon effect leading to the differentiation risk of market varieties. The historical situation shows that there are unicorn enterprises that develop benign and there are risks in development. It is expected that their future will continue to be listed, or reflect the siphon effect of different cycles.
Bo Xing's investment: the US-Syrian war detonated the relay market
At 9:00 Beijing time on April 14, the United States ordered a precise strike against Syrian chemical weapons-related facilities, detonating capital risk aversion. Before the war was launched, on April 9, the US President had already indicated in advance that it would be possible to act against Syria within the next 24-48 hours. As a leading indicator, the capital market has already reacted in advance. Gold leader Western Gold has taken the lead, starting from the first daily limit on March 21, and the cumulative increase has reached 60% in two weeks. With the first shot of Western Gold, other gold stocks have taken advantage of the trend, and Hengbang shares soared two daily limit boards to bring market risk aversion to a climax. At the same time, the oil sector also followed the pace of the Petronas 2 trading day rose 16%.
When the market turned to the risk-oriented sector, it was found that gold and oil did not continue to move with the short-term rise. What does this mean? First of all, the market has not been very fluent about sudden incidents. There is very little history in history, and the scale of this war is not very large. Therefore, if we continue to pay attention to gold and oil in this round of market, we may be confused by the main obstacles.
April is a month in which multiple Lido and the negative are constantly intertwined. The news of the Boao Forum for Asia, the annual report, the quarterly report, and the anti-trade war policy have continued. The continued release of these policies is bound to be a trend of volatility in April. Recently, the market continued to adjust, and many stocks have undergone continuous adjustments in the short-term. For example, insurance, banking, liquor, and electronic technology have seen large adjustments in the short-term, but the short-term hot spots in the market are indeed continuous, Hainan, domestic chips, digital China, and intellectual property rights. Hot spots continue, Hainan plate leading stocks of the shares of the total increase of 104%, the number of Chinese stocks Taiji shares rose 50%, intellectual property leading Anne shares, China's Ke Chuan consecutive three consecutive performances are quite strong. Through these continuous rises, we can see that there are very significant features. First, the stocks that have started to rise sharply are in a very low position, basically in the big bottom range of the past year. Second, all these rising sectors are Benefiting from the strong catalysis of policies, these policies have continued to strengthen in April, but all investors who continue to pay attention to policy things will find that both the digital China and Hainan’s 30th anniversary have been proposed in advance in 17 years. And the formulation at the time was based on strategic planning.
For the development of the industry, there are some tactics, some are strategic. If some industry policies are only tactical plans, the policy benefits period is shorter, the sustainability will not be too strong, but if the policy has a strategic concept, there will be follow-up Continued follow-up, so the current mainstream fever in the market can be said to be expected, as long as you prepare in advance.
Have you missed the violence in Hainan, the short-term outbreak of digital China, and the opportunity to get on the bus? Not only can it be certain that there must be, and the opportunities are getting bigger and bigger, and more and more certain. Earlier, we talked about the fact that stocks that can continue to rise sharply have certain valuation advantages. The basic stock prices are all from the bottom of the big area, so the lower the stock price falls, the greater the rebound.
Recently, the market continued to adjust. There were a number of stocks that broke through the previous low of 3062. Many of the stocks were slaughtered. This killing is equivalent to sending us a big red envelope. Once the market stabilizes and rebounds, the catalyst will rise sharply because of the estimation. The value is lower than the previous round, so the increase will only be greater. Then the catalyst, if you want to lay out in advance, you must make a pre-judgment of the policy in advance. The best judgment is the policy with strategic development direction. In the next step, we need to pay special attention to some industry policies, where the double-point evaluation of passenger car manufacturers is coming. The closer it is, the more the sales of new energy vehicles will increase in the first quarter, and there will be very certain opportunities for the later market.
At the annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia, Ma Xingrui, governor of Guangdong Province, said that the planning of the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan District will soon be launched, and we are fully qualified to be confident that it will become a world-class Bay Area. The area of Dawan District only accounts for 1% of the country, and the resident population accounts for about 5% of the country's total population, but the GDP ratio has reached 12%. As an important engine of China's economic growth, once the plan is officially launched, the relevant stocks will be stimulated by the catalyst. From the current market performance, many beneficiary stocks have been eager to try, the technical form is very perfect, the quantity can also be moderately amplified, and the market will start at any time with the catalyst. The current killing is the perfect time to obtain excess returns.
Bao Titan Co., Ltd. (600456) almost suddenly reddened on the 17th of April, and suddenly accelerated in the end of 10 minutes. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? what? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Could it be lifted from tomorrow? ?
Recommended stocks: Science and technology intellectual property concepts such as large military aircraft carrier nuclear power and other large aircraft
Bao Titan (600456) responded to investors' questions on the interactive platform in the morning, and the company provided titanium for the C919 large passenger aircraft project. . . The concept of scientific and technological intellectual property such as Bao Titan's large military industry (aircraft carrier nuclear power, etc.) and large aircraft is likely to become the first new leader. . . . . . . .