Jufeng Fan Gu: Why the market continues to decline
Today, the two cities opened higher and they immediately turned green after turning around. With the securities sector leading, financial stocks were once strong to stimulate the stock index. However, the continuous decline in the GEM index performed flat and in the subsequent weak market. Go down again. In the afternoon, the GEM fell sharply and other sectors were lower. The index fell to a new low in the day. Since then, financial stocks have re-expressed, and the index has gradually stopped falling, but it still shows a high opening and low performance throughout the day.
Throughout the day, the index opened higher and continued the recent consolidation trend. On the disk, financial stocks held back at all times throughout the day, while subject shares were severely divided, and the GEM showed major adjustments. In the news, China’s GDP data for the first quarter was announced, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In March, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year. The economic growth rate remains stable, and it has strong support for the market. Technically, the Shanghai index continued to adjust lower, the GEM fell sharply below the year line, the short-term focus all down, the index still has room to callback.
In general, under the influence of the ZTE event, today's subject stocks have fallen, driving the GEM's slump, while financial stocks have still played an effective role. In fact,The stock index has the need to continue to organize, and there is a callback demand under the relatively strong GEM, so under the superposition of indirect factors, the index ushered in continuous decline.However, for the GEM, the support below the year line is still relatively strong, the current policy tilt and funds chasing intensity is strong, low suction opportunities below the line can still be expected. What needs to be done at the same time to maintain position and wait and see is to actively conduct stock selection, and focus on selecting the main lines of performance and the relevant targets that mainly include growth routes. Because once the index stops falling, these targets will be the first to rebound.
Operationally, the index is still repeated, and the GEM Index will continue to be closely watched in the short-term, mainly based on the low absorption of growth stocks.
Xiangcai Securities: It is easier to identify the real leader in differentiation
Today, the stock indexes of the two cities opened slightly higher. Afterwards, the major indices showed a trend of decreasing volatility until the close of noon. In the afternoon, the stock index experienced another dip. After 13:32 hours, it saw an all-day low and the shock rose again. The stocks fell again in the late; Banks, banks, wine and other sectors showed defensive performance, and all others turned green. Overall: Today's market has seen significant adjustments.
Since the market as a whole was operating near the pressure point last week, we continued to suggest the risks of the GEM and the sub-new stocks in the Bowen. This week, the market has seen a clear adjustment on the two trading days, and today's major indexes have been fully adjusted. Obviously increased, and basically consistent with our pre-judgment of the market. Therefore, once again remind investors that the recent attention to avoid the risk of excessive growth in the early stage.
For yesterday's hot Hainan plate, 21 stocks daily limit was stimulated by news, and there was plenty of upside momentum. It was the most worthy looking section this week. Today, the sector has undergone a certain differentiation in the environment of weaker adjustment, but there are still a few stocks. Daily limit. Is it because of the differentiation, the plate's market is dead in the fetus?
We believe that this trend of differentiation is normal. In the process of deciding the concept of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone in 2017 and the Xiongan concept in 2017, similar situations have also occurred. Not all of the stocks will continue to rise, only Among them, the leading force has the power to continue to rise. Therefore, Xiangcai Securities Fan Bo believes that differentiation is not terrible, which makes it easier for investors to identify the leading concept of Hainan Free Trade Port concept. In the near future, this sector does not rule out recurrence, and active investors pay close attention.
Summarizing one sentence: Re-emphasize that the new shares that have risen greatly in the previous period need to pay attention to risks, and the Baima shares are still in the process of dressing. The hot Hainan plate has the opportunity to make waves. Radical investors need to focus on tracking the leading species. Keywords: Leading.
Guangzhou Bandung: Disappointed Deregulation Emotional Strengthening
The broader market index maintains a weak adjustment. The decline in risk appetite has led to financial disappointment and self-enforcement. Investors are advised to remain cautious, and band operation strategies can be properly considered under the premise of controlling positions.
Liquidity is the core constraint, which determines that there is no systematic market for the index. The trade war between China and the United States and geopolitics are the core drivers of risk appetite. That is, in the unlikely situation where the index has an opportunity to rise, risk appetite falls back to a strategy that leads to the disappointment of cash selection on the court. From the perspective of behavioral psychoanalysis, mutual reinforcement of dissatisfaction and departure sentiment will lead to the strengthening of panic departure sentiment. This is why we have been stressing why we need to control participation positions in order to avoid the possibility of irrational panic resulting in full positions.
From the perspective of fundamental analysis, there is valuation support for the index to fall back to around 3100. On the other hand, from the technical analysis point of view, the 3000-3100 operating range has become the index's medium- and long-term support area, so we believe that even if the index is still faced with the pressure of uncertainty, it is expected that there will still be counter-inflation after the adjustment. Opportunity. Therefore, investors should now be able to consider adopting a strategy of gradually participating in batches and gradually participating in oversold stocks under the premise of controlling overall participation positions.
On the whole, Bandung Securities Research Center believes that liquidity is the core factor in determining the market. Under the condition that the earning effect is not strong, investors' trading behavior is more biased towards the sidelines. This will cause the broader market to face a certain degree of selling pressure. Therefore, our view is that the overall market style will still operate with the idea of maintaining game opportunities under a structural and wave-like tone.
China News Investment: Trade War Smoke Does Not Extinguish
After the opening of the index today, there was a short-term revolt in the morning and then all the way down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the platform's support for finishing 3,100 points. It once again tested the support of the previous low of 3062. The GEM Index came to a gap, and there is a high probability that it will be covered tomorrow. On the plate, the Hainan plate wanes across the board, and the Strait shares are more than a dozen points in the sky floor; brokers, gold, and agricultural plates are slightly stronger. On the news, the Ministry of Commerce implemented temporary anti-dumping measures against imported stilts originating in the United States. It was the trigger for the market to worry about a renewed escalation of the trade war. On the whole, individual stocks rose more or less, and the weak market structure focused on the emergence of new money-making effects. Operationally, there should be counter-inflation after a panic-stricken sell-off. To continue to sell tomorrow should be an opportunity to dip the bottom.
Source: Intensified market adjustments
The four major indices opened higher across the board in early trading on Tuesday, after which the volatility was lower. In the afternoon, the decline was significantly deepened. Among them, the main board refreshed at a new low on the day and the GEM fell by an 1800-point integer mark. The market trend is indeed ugly. On the disk, the Hainan plate finished lower and differentiated significantly. The stocks in the sector rose more or less, but HNA innovation and the new continent A continued strong closure. Under the influence of the seven-year ban promulgated by the United States to ZTE, the relevant stocks have all but slumped. Fortunately, the domestic chip theme has shown performance throughout the day, North China Development, Changchuan Technology also rose. Overall, the market cautiously heated up significantly, and individual stocks fell.
From a technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated down after opening higher, and there was a trend of scissors on the yellow and white lines on time-sharing, indicating that the short-term profit-making effect was not significant. Combined with the postponement of the afternoon index, the increase in volume was accompanied by an increase in market panic selling. On the hourly level, a new low has been achieved, and the average system has not improved significantly, and the MACD indicator has not been repaired. The short-term pressure period is expected to continue. Shen Chengzhi was dragged down by the board and the callback was clear. The short-term risk was exacerbated by the potential for a sideways decline on the daily market. The GEM showed an unresponsive decline in time-sharing, and the gaps in the gaps left over from the previous period were covered up on the daily basis, and the difficulty of the next rapid attack increased sharply.
Source of the assessment: today's Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher after the fall, the current level has been close to 3062 low position, the market there is a large probability of technical backdraft. However, with the stock index shrinking again, without the support of quantity and energy, the index may continue to explore the previous lows, and then superimpose the two gaps in the gap between the two gaps and the mean short order, and the rebound of the main board is difficult. The GEM’s Yindie fell below the double-line support, and the closing has covered some of the gaps below. In the context of emotional catharsis, the remaining gaps are expected to be covered in the near future. In view of the relatively deeper corrections in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today, individual stocks have performed unrestrainedly. Under the background that panic sentiment has not improved, operations will need to see more and less attention and avoid risk.
Hexin Gu: Unicorn Enterprises Land or Bring Siphon Effect
Judging from the time factor, the time for unicorn enterprises to land on A shares has been determined. What will it bring to the market? How does it affect the market? Investors should pay close attention.
Next Tuesday, A shares will usher in the first unicorn under the "Unicorn New Deal" - WuXi.
According to the information on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, on April 16th, 2018, WuXi PharmaTech's letter of intent for prospectus issued on the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed that it was expected to be issued on April 24, that is, the subscription date for new shares was April 24, which is the next Tuesday. Our research suggests that because of its time background, its impact on the market may bring about a significant siphon effect.
The Hexin Research tracked changes in funds in various markets since 2018 (February 1 to April 16). It was found that during the turbulent operation of the 3062-3587-point region, the market’s main funds showed hesitant changes, if they were compared to the super singles and small and medium-sized companies. From the point of view of single change, the trajectory changes of the oversized single and main capital converge, but the small and medium-sized units have positive values from time to time. It shows that the major capital and super single net value changes in Shenzhen and Shanghai are still mainly negative, and the positive value of small and medium single is displayed. Game concept and variety of stock-based. Judging from the change in the average daily market volume, the total daily turnover of 500 billion yuan is very small, indicating that the behavior of the stock game market is still evident. .
One feature of the stock game is that market funds are concentrated or converted to a small number of individual stocks. If the recent unicorn companies are listed, the possibility of a siphon effect may increase.
The so-called siphon effect has historically been related to the Olympic effect. It mainly means that the strong attraction of the Olympic host city will attract investment from other places, thus slowing the development of these areas. The phenomenon of siphoning is caused by the difference between the gravitational force and the potential energy of the liquid molecules, that is, the differential pressure of the water column causes the water to rise and then flow to a lower level. Because the water surface of the nozzle is subject to different atmospheric pressure, the water will flow from the high pressure side to the low pressure side until the atmospheric pressures on both sides are equal, and the water level inside the container becomes the same height, and the water will stop flowing. Using siphoning, the water in the container can be quickly extracted. If we introduce it into the market, history has also had a siphon effect, such as the absolute possession of the stock market for large-cap stocks, the emergence of sector policies, and the Hainan plate in recent days. As far as the historical cycle is concerned, the trajectory of the siphon effect's periodic changes is also obvious, ie it is sometimes longer and sometimes shorter.
The influence of the factors currently facing the A-share market is very obvious. For example, China’s CDR policy and the performance of trade wars
Change and so on. If viewed from the perspective of the year as a whole, the overall daily trading volume of the market can still be below 500 billion yuan. If the scale of lifting the ban continues to increase or factors change, new varieties will attract capital, and the market volume will remain the same, the siphon effect the market will face will be obvious; Therefore, it can be determined that if the follow-up overall volume is not good and this new type of company is listed, there will be a clear siphon effect, and increase the differentiation of share price and the contrast between shareholding risk and opportunity.
According to the corresponding research, the development and development of gazelles in various regions can be regarded as the reserve force of unicorn enterprises. To a certain extent, it is a quasi-unicorn enterprise at the stage of growth and development. According to the information from the China Securities Network, in recent days, a number of new policies have been intensively introduced to cultivate gazelle enterprises, especially financial and financial support. As a representative of the new economy and “quasi-unicorn” enterprises, gazelle enterprises are poised to explode. In fact, currently the Ministry of Science and Technology publishes the “Unicorn” business volume and valuation has increased the market attention, coupled with the future gazelle companies that may support all over the world, its impact on the Chinese economy will be obvious, and reflected in the capital market It will also reflect the resonance of opportunities and risks, because not all unicorn companies will eventually be able to successfully develop.
In general, unicorn enterprises are approaching the A-share market. As investors, they need to see related market opportunities, and at the same time they must guard against possible syphonic effects that lead to the differentiation of market varieties. The historical situation shows that there are unicorn enterprises whose development is benign and there are also development risks. It is expected that the unicorn enterprises will continue to be listed in the future or reflect the siphon effect of different periods.
Bo Xing’s Investment Advisor: US-Syrian War Exploding Relay Leading Market
At 9 o'clock Beijing time on April 14th, the United States ordered a precise strike on Syrian chemical weapons-related facilities, setting off a risk aversion of capital. Long before the start of the war, that is, on April 9, the U.S. president has indicated in advance that he will be able to act on Syria within the next 24 to 48 hours. As a leading indicator, the capital market has responded in advance. Gold leader Western Gold has taken the lead in starting, continuing the riots from the first daily limit on March 21, and cumulative gains have reached 60% in two weeks or so. With the first shot of gold in the west, other gold stocks followed suit. Hengbang stocks soared two consecutive daily limit plates to bring the market risk aversion to a climax. At the same time, the oil sector also kept pace with the rise of 16% in the 2nd trading day of CNPC.
When the market turned to the direction of the risk-avoidance sector, it actually found that gold and oil did not continue to drive after a short-term pull. What does this mean? The first is that the market has always been not very fond of sudden incidents. Historically, there has been very little market activity. The scale of this war is not very large. Therefore, if we continue to pay attention to gold and oil, we may be confused by the main obstacles.
April was the month in which multiple bullishness and bad bears continued to interweave. Bo'ao Asia Forum, annual report, quarterly report, and anti-trade war policy were announced. The continued issuance of these policies is destined to be the trend of the market oscillating back and forth in April. The recent market continued to adjust, and a number of stocks have undergone continuous adjustments in the short term. For example, insurance, banking, liquor, and electronic technology have undergone major adjustments in the short term, but the short-term hot spots in the market do continue one after another. Hainan, domestic chips, digital China, and intellectual property rights Hot spots continued, and the cumulative gains of Hainan’s leading stocks in the Straits Straits amounted to 104%, and the number of Chinese concept stocks Taichi Co., Ltd. soared 50%, and the intellectual property leader Annie Shares and China Science and Technology’s consecutive triple boards performed quite well. Through these continuously rising sectors, it can be seen that there are very significant characteristics. First, these individual stocks that have started rising sharply are at a very low position, basically at the bottom of the big range in recent one year. Second, these rising blocks are all Benefiting from the policy's strong catalysis, although these policies have continued to strengthen in April, all investors who continue to pay attention to policy issues will find that both the digital China and the 30th anniversary of Hainan Province were proposed in advance in 17 years. At the time, the reference was based on strategic planning.
Some of the industry's development is tactical, and some are strategic. If some industry policy is only tactical planning, it shows that the policy benefit period is short and the sustainability will not be too strong, but if the policy has a strategic concept description, there will be follow-up Continuous follow-up, so the mainstream of the current market explosion can be said to be expected, as long as you prepare in advance.
Has missed the violent rise in Hainan, the short-term outbreak of digital China, and the opportunity to get on the train? Not only can there be certain that there must be certain, but the opportunities are getting bigger and bigger and more and more certain. We mentioned earlier that stocks that can continue to rise sharply have certain valuation advantages. The basic stock prices are all out of the large bottom region, so the lower the stock price falls, the lower the rebound rate will be.
Recently, the market continued to adjust, there are a lot of stocks that broke through the early lows of 3062. Many stocks have been massively mistakenly killed. This killing is equivalent to sending us a big red envelope. Once the market stabilizes and rebounds, the superposition of catalysts will rise sharply. The value is lower than the previous round, so the pull up will only be greater. Then there is the catalyst. In order to advance the layout, it is necessary to make a pre-judgement on the policy in advance. The best judgment is the policy with a strategic direction of development. Next, we need to pay special attention to some industry policies. Among them, the dual-integration assessment of passenger car manufacturers The nearer, and at the same time a significant increase in sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter, will have a very definite opportunity for the future market.
At the Boao Forum for Asia, Ma Xingrui, governor of Guangdong Province, stated that the planning of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau in the Greater Bay Area will soon be introduced. We are fully confident of having it built into a world-class Bay Area. The area of the Dawan District accounts for only 1% of the country, and the permanent population accounts for about 5% of the country's total population, but GDP accounts for 12%. As an important engine for China’s economic growth, once the plan is formally introduced, the relevant stocks will continue to soar as a result of strong catalyst stimulation. Judging from the current market performance, many beneficiary stocks have been eager to try, the technical form is very perfect, the amount of energy is also moderately amplified, the market will start at any time with the catalyst soon, the current sell-off is an excellent opportunity to obtain excess returns.
Baotie Co., Ltd. (600456) April 15 almost all day red plate, late 10 minutes suddenly accelerated decline smashing shock warehouse Xipan it? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? what? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Could it be pulled up from tomorrow? ?
Recommended shares: large military aircraft carriers, nuclear power vehicles and other large aircraft and other intellectual property concepts
Baotie Co., Ltd. (600456) responded to investors' questions on an interactive platform in the morning. The company provided titanium materials for the C919 large passenger aircraft project. . . The concept of scientific and technological intellectual property rights such as Bao Titanium's major military (carrier-carrier nuclear power, etc.) and large aircraft is most likely to be the first new leader. . . . . . . .