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Financial commentary
Published on 2018-04-17 19:21:19 Share it web version
                        List of stock market trends after successive central bank RRR cuts (schedule)
Source: Eastern Fortune Network

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On the evening of April 17, the People's Bank of China announced that it would cut the renminbi deposit reserve ratio of large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks by 1 percentage point; on the same day, the above banks will each follow the first In the order of “returning first”, the funds released by the RRR are used to repay the medium-term loan facility (MLF) of the central bank it borrows. The central bank said that by estimating the data at the end of the first quarter of 2018, the MLF was repaid about 900 billion yuan on the day of operation, and the incremental funds were released by about 400 billion yuan. Most of the incremental funds were released to the city commercial banks and non-county agricultural commercial banks.


This article comes from the Yangtze River strategy, the original title "History, the market trend after the targeted RRR cut", the following is an excerpt.


What kind of impact will the directional RRR cut as a way for the central bank to release liquidity?


Since 2014, the central bank has conducted 8 RRR cuts, of which 3 are targeted RRR cuts (April 2014, June 2014 and June 2015), and 5 times are comprehensive RRR cuts (February 2015, 2015) April, September 2015, October 2015 and March 2016). (Partially, the directional reduction was carried out at the same time as the overall RRR cut. In this case, we classify it as a comprehensive RRR cut)


We separately calculated the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index on 5 trading days, 30 trading days and 90 trading days after the targeted RRR cut and full RRR cut since 2014: Overall, after the targeted RRR cut The market did not show obvious rules; after the overall RRR cut, the market rose in a short-term (5 trading days, 30 trading days) with a high probability, but in the long run there is no obvious law.


From the background of the past several targeted RRR cuts, the economy is generally facing certain downward pressures. When there are problems such as the risk of deflation and the decline in foreign exchange holdings, it is mainly a policy fine-tuning, and its impact strength and scope are less than the overall RRR cut.


The central bank can hedge the current market liquidity pressure by directional RRR, but at the same time it will not convey a more relaxed liquidity expectation to the market because it is not fully downgraded, and there is a three-month buffer period. Implementation will be in 2018.


On the whole, there is no absolute statistical law on the impact of RRR cuts, and it may affect risk preferences to a greater extent. In the current market environment, the short-term RRR reduction may form a risk appetite. However, in the medium term, we need to pay more attention to the implementation of the medium and long-term financial deleveraging policy.


Published on 2018-04-17 19:24:54
                            400 billion has a use, not all stocks
Published on 2018-04-17 19:25:29
                            3000 points will not be seen
Published on 2018-04-17 19:26:57
                            Don't go to the village
Published on 2018-04-17 19:32:57
                            Take a closer look, the days after the directional RRR cut are all down! The day of full RRR reduction is up!
Published on 2018-04-17 19:34:29
                            Egg use
Published on 2018-04-17 19:34:58
                            Trade wars detonated high-end manufacturing, domestic alternative gearbox faucet 002434. Stay tuned! The word "domestic replacement" is very important!
Published on 2018-04-17 19:36:27
                            Continue to loosen, let the yuan cut prices until the American dog people stop trading
Published on 2018-04-17 19:37:10
                            Go high and go low
Published on 2018-04-17 19:37:59
                            Rubbish
Published on 2018-04-17 19:39:10
                            Carving a sword
Published on 2018-04-17 19:39:47
                            Haha, the World Bank will not give you a loan, you will be down, there is an egg.
Published on 2018-04-17 19:42:01
                            Tomorrow is still green
Published on 2018-04-17 19:44:25
                            Go high and go low
Published on 2018-04-17 19:48:04
                            See you at 2000
Published on 2018-04-17 19:48:15
                            I understand that the target is down, the index is going to fall, and the overall RRR is going up.
Published on 2018-04-17 19:56:15
                            Can a strong heart turn a male into a cow?
Published on 2018-04-17 19:56:24
                            How many times can you stabilize the stock market? But this time...
Published on 2018-04-17 19:56:32
                            This time is not a targeted RRR
Published on 2018-04-17 19:58:48
                            Start to hedge, the effect is not very good before
Published on 2018-04-17 19:59:37
Dragon V :400 billion has a use, not all stocks
                            Most of them went into real estate
Published on 2018-04-17 20:01:03
                            I remember that in 15 years, the rate cuts were only high and low, and I was trapped.
Published on 2018-04-17 20:01:14
Dragon V :400 billion has a use, not all stocks
                            Part of the entry is enough, give everyone a little confidence, at least these days are fine.
Published on 2018-04-17 20:02:41
Clear tea house :Haha, the World Bank will not give you a loan, you will be down, there is an egg.
                            I went, the money was printed by myself, went to the Mao Shixing loan, and the World Bank did not belong to the lending institution, ignorance.
Published on 2018-04-17 20:05:38
                            The money is in the house.
Published on 2018-04-17 20:07:06
                            Is this trick useful for waiting for a rabbit????????????????/
Published on 2018-04-17 20:11:47
Dragon V :400 billion has a use, not all stocks
                            That is useful! Then there is no confidence in what stocks! Isn’t it so good to think so, this is 400 billion? This is the attitude of policy in the historical period!
Published on 2018-04-17 20:17:36
小散989898 :Part of the entry is enough, give everyone a little confidence, at least these days are fine.
 Go high and go low, then Thursday, Friday, happy break 3000 points
There are no signs of effective support at 3100. Then 2850 met.
Published on 2018-04-17 20:18:33
                            At present, we should vigorously support innovative technology companies. These are the fundamentals of national competition. We have been engaged in real estate for so many years.
Published on 2018-04-17 20:18:48
                            Real estate has to rise, the same can drive the market
Published on 2018-04-17 20:23:20
                            Tomorrow, the stock index will drop interest rate after the fall of the stock index.
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Source: Eastern Fortune Network

K map 000001_1

On the evening of April 17, the People's Bank of China announced that it would cut the renminbi deposit reserve ratio of large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks, and foreign banks by 1 percentage point; on the same day, the above banks will each follow the first In the order of “returning first”, the funds released by the RRR are used to repay the medium-term loan facility (MLF) of the central bank it borrows. The central bank said that by estimating the data at the end of the first quarter of 2018, the MLF was repaid about 900 billion yuan on the day of operation, and the incremental funds were released by about 400 billion yuan. Most of the incremental funds were released to the city commercial banks and non-county agricultural commercial banks.

This article comes from the Yangtze River strategy, the original title "History, the market trend after the targeted RRR cut", the following is an excerpt.

What kind of impact will the directional RRR cut as a way for the central bank to release liquidity?

Since 2014, the central bank has conducted 8 RRR cuts, of which 3 are targeted RRR cuts (April 2014, June 2014 and June 2015), and 5 times are comprehensive RRR cuts (February 2015, 2015) April, September 2015, October 2015 and March 2016). (Partially, the directional reduction was carried out at the same time as the overall RRR cut. In this case, we classify it as a comprehensive RRR cut)

We separately calculated the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index on 5 trading days, 30 trading days and 90 trading days after the targeted RRR cut and full RRR cut since 2014: Overall, after the targeted RRR cut The market did not show obvious rules; after the overall RRR cut, the market rose in a short-term (5 trading days, 30 trading days) with a high probability, but in the long run there is no obvious law.

From the background of the past several targeted RRR cuts, the economy is generally facing certain downward pressures. When there are problems such as the risk of deflation and the decline in foreign exchange holdings, it is mainly a policy fine-tuning, and its impact strength and scope are less than the overall RRR cut.

The central bank can hedge the current market liquidity pressure by directional RRR, but at the same time it will not convey a more relaxed liquidity expectation to the market because it is not fully downgraded, and there is a three-month buffer period. Implementation will be in 2018.

On the whole, there is no absolute statistical law on the impact of RRR cuts, and it may affect risk preferences to a greater extent. In the current market environment, the short-term RRR reduction may form a risk appetite. However, in the medium term, we need to pay more attention to the implementation of the medium and long-term financial deleveraging policy.