On April 18, according to media reports, according to people familiar with the matter, China has postponed the release of new regulations aimed at regulating the $16 trillion asset management industry.
According to the China Securities Journal, a few days ago, the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions" was passed. According to industry insiders, on the one hand, while the securities dealers are actively adapting to regulatory requirements and adjusting their existing businesses in a timely manner, they are vigorously exploring the development of new regulations to encourage support and the company's comparative advantage. On the other hand, private equity funds are also actively expanding the channels of individual investors, and it is expected that the new regulations will enhance individual investors' preference for equity products and seize development opportunities. Overall, the new asset management regulations will have multiple impacts on the asset management organization and will reshape the industry ecology.
On the afternoon of March 28, the first comprehensive meeting of the Central Committee for Deepening Reform was held. The meeting reviewed and approved a series of documents including the “Guiding Opinions on Regulating Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions” (hereinafter referred to as “New Regulations for Asset Management”). Fair market access and supervision are implemented in accordance with the unified regulatory standards for asset management products. It is necessary to eliminate the regulatory arbitrage space to the greatest extent and promote the development of asset management business norms. It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of investment financial institutions of non-financial enterprises, and adhere to the problem-oriented filling of short-term supervision. What impact will it have on various financial institutions after the introduction of the new asset management regulations?
Huang Minglu, vice president of Jiyan Capital, said in an interview with the media that the "New Regulations on Assets and Controls" broke the contract, which has a greater impact on the fixed-income products of banks, brokerages, trusts and other institutions. The impact on equity products is relatively small, including private equity funds, public funds, and so on. Public offerings of these equity products are more likely to be offered. In the past, investors saw that there were products that had just been exchanged, and they tended to invest in products. Now, because the asset management products can not be justified, investors will prefer the equity products.
Restricting the re-issuance of classified products by public funds
Publicly-raised grading products have developed wildly in the bull market and become one of the products favored by investors. However, due to the imperfection of its own mechanism and the effect of contributing to the decline, it caused huge losses during the stock market crash, which led investors to reject it.
As of November 10, 2017, the size of the funded fund's parent fund was only 8.508 billion yuan, and the size of the funded fund's fund was 67.317 billion yuan. To this end, there are two main trends in public fundraising fund products, one is liquidation, and the other is transformation into other types of fund products.
Earlier, the “de-leverage” of public fundraising funds has gradually landed. In addition to raising the investment threshold for graded funds to 300,000 yuan, the stock-denominated bond rating fund has restricted purchases when it is opened regularly, and gradually liquidated by guiding the scale of product shrinkage. The stock class grading fund has always been open to operation, except for the increase in the threshold, which has not been affected before.
Graded products may face a transition or a mandatory liquidation. Public funds may not be classified, and this regulation limits the possibility of public funds reissuing graded products. In addition, the current stock products are mainly graded funds, and there is ambiguity in the interpretation of the disposal of stock products that violate the regulations after the end of the transition period. One explanation is that the end of the transition period will end, the high probability will face the possibility of transformation or compulsory liquidation; another understanding is that the graded products are mostly sustainable, such products do not need to be renewed, and the guidance does not give a clear disposal. In this regard, it may still be necessary to wait for the rules to be introduced. However, under strict supervision, grading products may face greater transformation or compulsory liquidation after the transition period. With this in mind, the current discount rating A will usher in an opportunity.
The impact of the performance of listed banks is small, and the market impact is expected to be limited.
At present, the income of the entire banking industry in the year of bank financing in 2016 is probably less than 150 billion yuan. Compared with the overall revenue level of listed banks of nearly 4 trillion in the same year, the proportion is very low. In most listed banks, the income from wealth management business accounts for less than 5% of total revenue, so the scale may decline next year, which will affect the income of wealth management business, but the impact on revenue is expected to be no more than 1 percentage point, and the impact is too small.
Industrial Bank President Gu Yu said: "The asset management business was the year of strong supervision last year. With the introduction of new regulations on capital management, this trend will continue. ICBC is looking at these effects positively."
"After the introduction of the new asset management regulations, ICBC will not be affected by the big impact." Gu Yu said that ICBC is confident that the asset management business will be more standardized and better developed. Specifically, the first source of funds, to create a net worth product system; the second investment end, continue to do non-standard transfer research, find more standardized investment products; third wind control, continue to simplify the product system, reduce Nesting makes the product more penetrating. In addition, in the internationalization of the asset management business, ICBC established a subsidiary in the Hong Kong region of China last year - ICBC (Global), which is responsible for the internationalization of the business.
CITIC BankSun Deshun, the president of the company, also said that regardless of when the new regulations will fall, the bank should respond to itself and the asset management business must return to its source. "From a structural point of view, our current proportion of net worth products is low, which is the space for further development, and this is also the future growth point."
"From the perspective of the whole bank, the proportion of asset management business is only a part. The so-called 'East is not bright west', even if the new regulations on the asset management pressure on the short-term, but from the perspective of the whole bank, it can still be digested. Absorption. After the transformation of bank wealth management, new growth points may also be formed,” said Peng Xiangdong, deputy general manager of the Agricultural Bank's Asset Management Department.
The brokerage asset management business transformation is still on the way but has little impact on overall performance
In the short-term, the current bull market factor is mainly due to the relatively loose capital, the substantial changes in the stable and neutral monetary policy, and the safe-haven demand brought about by the uncertainty of Sino-US trade disputes. The "New Asset Management Regulations" will have a far-reaching impact on the bond market. Judging from the information recently disclosed, the transition period of the "New Asset Management Regulations" may be calculated from the date of publication of the official documents. Assuming that the one-and-a-half-year transition period remains unchanged, the transition period is likely to be extended to 2019. The end of the year.
Since the asset end of the brokerage margin financing and securities is not fixed, the brokerage generally adopts a combination of standardized financing of bond issuance and flexible non-standard financing such as transfer of income rights.
The new regulations require that the asset management products be invested in non-standard creditor assets. The non-standard creditor assets shall be terminated no later than the maturity date or the last open day of the asset management products. It is expected that the requirements for non-standard financing of securities companies will be met. Certainly, in the future, the financing methods of securities companies will rely more on long-term bond financing, so the demand for the time of issuing bonds will be higher.
At present, more than 70% of the asset management scale of brokerages is channel and fund pool business, but due to the low rate of these businesses, the overall performance of brokers is less affected. In 2017, the total size of Q3 brokerages was 17.37 trillion yuan, of which the targeted asset management scale was 14.73 trillion yuan, accounting for 84.77% of the total scale. Under the extreme assumption, the targeted asset management is a channel business, and the charging standard is about 5/10,000. The contribution income this year is 5.5 billion yuan, accounting for 1.74% of the brokerage revenue, so the overall impact on the overall performance is not significant.
As more than 70% of the brokerage asset management scale is the channel and fund pool business, if the channel and fund pool business is restricted, the total asset size of the brokerage asset management industry is 17 trillion, it is difficult to maintain, and the total brokerage asset industry is The impact of the size of the asset management will be great.
Trust business: Channel business has limited impact on operating income
The balance of 2017H single-fund trust products is about 11 trillion yuan. If it is measured by the industry's average one-thousandth of the fee standard, the first half-year will contribute about 11 billion yuan of operating income, accounting for about 10% of the industry's operating income. The draft for comments has clarified the old and new. The principle of cutting off, so the orderly exit of the channel business has limited impact on industry revenue and profits. However, the channel business accounts for a large proportion of the overall asset size, accounting for nearly half. Once such services are greatly restricted, the total asset size of the trust industry will be greatly affected.
Breaking the deal will help to capture the benefits of taking risks. Breaking the exchange will make the yield curve steeper, and the too flat yield curve will not allow the trust company that bears the risk to get enough returns on the income side, which will benefit the quality trust company in the long run.
Due to the similar nature of the compensation reserve and the risk reserve, it is expected that this draft for comment will not have a large marginal impact on the trust industry in the provision of reserves.
According to the new regulations, the public financing of bank financing funds cannot invest in the traditional trust asset management products of private equity, which will make the trust blocked as an important channel of the bank. This means that trust institutions will face an important source of lost bank financing.
At the same time, breaking the supply of funds to clients of trust institutions has also had an impact. The traditional trust-protected products from the retail side will lose room for development, while another part of the high-net-worth client funds are not affected.
The insurance asset management and management new regulations draft opinion has little effect
The insurance asset management investment is mainly fixed income. The asset allocation of insurance funds is divided into strategic allocation and tactical allocation. The strategic allocation determines the characteristics of the upper and lower limits of the asset allocation of large categories, generally changing once every three years. Since insurance companies are pursuing stable spreads, most of their assets are allocated to fixed income, accounting for 60%-80%%, and equity is in the range of 10%-20%. The rest are allocated in cash and real estate. And other fields. The tactical configuration is more flexible according to the market's current style and is allowed within the allowable range of large-scale assets.
According to Li Zhen, an analyst at Huabao Securities, 2016 is a new starting point for the development of insurance asset management products. In 2017, insurance asset management companies expanded their product lines. “Many products have achieved good results”, 2018 insurance The management will face a more competitive environment. “Therefore, insurance asset management companies should pay more attention to the cultivation of core competitiveness.” (Source: Enterprise Watch)