The Shanghai Composite Index rose strongly in the afternoon, closing up 2.05%, regaining the 2800-point integer mark, closing at 2,829.27 points, and the K-line "one-yang swallowing five yin". The total turnover of the two cities was 348.3 billion yuan, and the industry sector rose across the board. Banks, insurance, brokerages, diversified finance and other four major financial sectors collectively soared.
For the market trend of the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
BOC International:How big is the rebound space? buy what?
Since 2000, there have been four large bottom regions in the A-share market, which are 998.23 points on June 6, 2005, 1664.93 points on October 28, 2008, and 1846.65 points on June 25, 2013, and 2016. 2638.30 on January 27. Statistics on the market trend after the formation of these four bottom regions can be found that within the month, two months, and three months after the formation of the bottom region, there are some internal laws in each major index.
Within one month after the formation of the bottom area: the average market increase was 4.4%, and the small and medium-sized creations were more flexible. In the month after the formation of the previous four sub-regions, the average increase of the major indices was -1.0%, 9.6%, 8.0%, and 1.1%, respectively, and the average market growth rate was 4.4%. From the perspective of the internal structure of the market, most of the time, small and medium-sized creations are more flexible, and individual stocks rebound more.
Within two months after the formation of the bottom area: the average market growth rate was 10.2%, and the same small and medium-sized stocks rebounded even more. In the two months after the formation of the previous four sub-regions, the major index rebound ranged from 8% to 13%, with average increases of 7.7%, 11.6%, 12.5%, and 9.1%, respectively. The average market growth rate was 10.2%. . From the perspective of the internal structure of the market, the same small and medium-sized stocks rebounded even more.
Within three months after the formation of the bottom area: the average market increase was 17%, and the elasticity of the small and medium-sized market remained slightly higher. In the three months after the formation of the previous four bottom regions, all indexes showed a significant rebound, with a rebound range of 9% to 24%, with average increases of 14.2%, 23.8%, 21.2%, and 8.6%, respectively. The average increase was 17%. From the perspective of the internal structure of the market, the elasticity of the small and medium-sized market is still slightly higher.
From the perspective of the distribution of industry performance, growth stocks are the leader in the short-term rebound, and cyclical stocks are the leader in the medium-term rebound. Observing the rise and fall of various industries within one month, two months, three months and half months after the formation of the bottom area can be seen in the media, computers, communications, etc. of the growing industries, and electrical equipment and building materials in the cyclical industries. , non-ferrous metals, etc., after the formation of the bottom region, the increase in each stage is in the forefront. Among them, the media industry's growth rate in the four stages was 15%, 23%, 35% and 33%, respectively, the computer industry's increase was 9%, 20%, 26% and 34%, respectively, the electrical equipment industry's increase was 10 %, 21%, 30% and 43%, the non-ferrous metals industry rose by 8%, 13%, 22% and 42% respectively, and the building materials industry rose by 11%, 15%, 27% and 41% respectively. Obviously, the short-term rebound of the growth industry is more intense, and the medium-term rebound of the cyclical industry is more sustainable. In addition, although the leisure service and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry have not increased much, they are located in the top ten rebounding industries almost every time. In the medium term, they can achieve good returns. The leisure service industry has increased within half a year after the formation of the bottom region. 32%, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry rose by 26%.
Haitong Securities:July and August are better rebound windows
While the sensitivity of the A-share market to overseas uncertainties has declined, a series of improvement signals can be observed in the near-term fundamentals. For example, on June 20, the management pointed out that it is necessary to maintain a reasonable liquidity and a stable operation of the financial market. On June 24, the central bank announced that it will implement targeted RRR cuts. On July 2, the management researched and deployed to prevent and resolve major risks and other related work. On July 8 and 9th, the management listened to the heads of listed companies to maintain capital market stability. On the basis of the operation and other suggestions, on July 12, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development indicated that it will promote the monetization and resettlement of the sheds according to local conditions. In addition, statistics show that loans for new financial institutions increased by 1.85 trillion yuan in June, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 1.5 trillion yuan. On the whole, China's macro economy has maintained strong resilience in the first half of the year, and it is more likely that the fundamentals will be fine-tuned in stages.
This round of rally can refer to the rebound trend of the market after the stage lows in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2016. The common feature is that the market rebounded after the index fell by about 25%. From April to June 2010, the market fluctuated and fell. From July to November, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded by 35%. From April to November 2012, the market continued to decline. From December 2012 to February 2013, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded. 25%; from February to June 2013, the market volatility was lower. From July to September, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded by 23%; from June 2015 to January 2016, the market fluctuated greatly, from January 27 to April 15. The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded by 16%.
This round of the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted to a low of 2691 points, compared with the previous high of 3587 points, the cumulative decline reached 25%, and the basic fine-tuning signal has gradually appeared, the current rebound has started, but the rebound is limited. From the end of January 2016 to the present, the market-intensive area is about 3150 points of the Shanghai Composite Index. The market near this position will encounter a large selling pressure. Judging from the duration of the rally, July and August are expected to become a rebound window. On the one hand, the marginal improvement trend from the fundamentals is expected to continue. On the other hand, overseas uncertainties are temporarily in a stable phase.
Looking back at the leading sectors of the market after the staged lows in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2016: during the period from July to November 2010, the non-ferrous, coal, chemical and other cyclical sectors led the rise; December 2012 During the period of February 2013, banks and non-banks led the gains; from July to September 2013, the media and computers led the growth sector; from January 27 to April 15, 2016, colored, The cyclical sectors such as coal and building materials led the gains. Judging from the industry performance in the past few rebound stages, it is often the case that the more flexible varieties have increased more, such as cyclical stocks and growth stocks.
For this round of rally, the rebound pioneer is more likely to be a growth stock: First, in the medium and long term, China's economic transformation is in the field of manufacturing upgrades and consumption upgrades, and growth stocks have medium and long-term strengths. Second, the policy direction is also positive for growth stocks, and relevant industrial policies will be tilted toward the new economy, such as 5G investment, semiconductor industry funds, and national large aircraft projects. Third, the valuation of growth stocks has dropped significantly after continued sharp shocks. The current valuation of the SME board and the GEM index is equivalent to the level of the Shanghai Composite Index at 1849 on June 25, 2013. As of July 13, 2018, the PE (TTM) of all A-shares, small and medium-sized board fingers, and GEM index were 16 times, 26.8 times, and 41 times, respectively, and at 1849 points, they were 12 times, 26 times, and 47 times respectively. .
Everbright Securities:The bottom is expected to get higher and higher
From the latest macro data, economic growth will be more resilient, and the rebound momentum of the A-share market will mainly come from the correction of the expected difference. We expect nominal GDP growth in the second quarter to be higher than market expectations, which will help boost investor sentiment and make the bottom of the market more solid.
The short-term market wants to further rebound, it needs more policy signals to repair market expectations. For example, the current market's expectation of overseas uncertainties has eased, but it is still necessary to fully understand the relevant uncertainties and even fully resolve them.
Therefore, the correction of market expectations will mainly come from the marginal improvement of internal policies. In fact, on June 24, the central bank announced that it will implement a targeted RRR cut to support debt-for-equity swaps, and the data shows that the off-balance sheet financing continues to drop significantly, but the on-balance sheet financing has exceeded expectations, indicating that the policy expectations are improving. In the context of the current stable macroeconomic operation, the marginal improvement signal on the policy side will help the bottom of the market become more and more high.
At present, a larger level of improvement signal on the policy side is likely to appear in the fourth quarter of this year. At that time, the market will usher in a larger level of rebound, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to return to the level of more than 3,000 points.
On the whole, the current market valuation level does not match the fundamentals. Investors can turn to optimism in a timely manner. At present, it is the layout time of value investors.
In terms of specific market allocation, in view of the current growth forecast implied by the current valuation level, we believe that the adjustment space of the cyclical product market has been limited, financial stocks are expected to fluctuate and stabilize, and the relatively strong consumer stocks in the previous period can appropriately lower the position. Stocks can be actively placed on dips.
Guoyuan Securities:Pay attention to the semi-annual report market
As long-term and short-end interest rates hit the lows of the year and the release of the policy warming signal, the consensus of market marginal improvement in the second half of the year has been formed. In addition, the overall stable growth of social financing in the first half of the year and the amount of corporate bond financing have also been fixed, showing signs of positive policy adjustment. Therefore, the market is expected to further develop after the short-term bottom.
Up to now, the 2018 semi-annual report of the small and medium-sized board and the GEM has basically been disclosed, and investors can pay due attention to the semi-annual report. Judging from the performance forecast, the performance of small and medium-sized board companies maintained a high growth trend, and the performance of GEM companies declined slightly. According to the profit range given by the performance forecast, the growth rate of net profit of small and medium-sized board companies in the first half of the year was around 21%, which was higher than the 19.8% in the first quarter. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of the net profit of the GEM companies was 11.1%. Below 28.8% of the quarterly report, there has been a significant decline.
In the industries where the company's performance forecast rate is more than half, the net profit growth of the computer and light industry manufacturing industries has accelerated compared with the first quarter report, and the pharmaceutical, building materials, petrochemical and other industries continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate.
From the perspective of profit structure, the dominant pattern of leading companies has been confirmed again in the semi-annual report performance forecast, and the trend of the A-share market profit scale to the leading companies is more clear.
With the opening of the semi-annual report market, the logic of the group's outstanding stocks will continue to be probable. It is recommended to prioritize the allocation of high-quality industry leaders with sustained high growth. In addition, you can focus on further directions of industrial policies, such as computers, military, high-end machinery manufacturing and other industries. At the same time, we can continue to focus on large consumer sectors with relatively stable demand and performance, such as biomedicine and leisure tourism.
Guotai Junan:Still in the process of grinding
Market sentiment repair is not stable and is still in the process of grinding. For the repeated shocks in the recent market, we can pay attention to two phenomena: 1) The so-called market bottoming usually means that the configuration value has already appeared for medium and long-term value investors; for trend investors, the subsequent uncertain factors The impact on the market may have been significantly reduced. 2) The market tends to form a “herd effect” in the upward process, that is, the institutional group is strong and the chips tend to concentrate. During this period, the risk appetite of the chip holders continues to decline. In the process of market volatility, it is actually the process of constantly searching for higher relative risk appetite.
The current Shanghai Composite Index (TTM) is 12.7 times, compared with 12.87 times at 2638 on January 27, 2016 and 13.49 times at 1664 on October 28, 2008. Therefore, we believe that the first phenomenon has already appeared partially. . It should be pointed out that the fact that the average market valuation is at a historically low level does not mean that individual stocks have been structurally adjusted. Regarding the second phenomenon, we believe that it will take time to further reflect that in the case of continued shrinking market trading, the short-term large fluctuations in the market itself are manifestations of market instability. From a complete market shock cycle, in the process of market chip exchange, the entry of stronger relative risk appetite is the basis for the market to stabilize. On the other hand, as the market continues to fluctuate repeatedly, the market is caught in a scarce state of the counterparty, the so-called “grounding” stage.
There are two main factors affecting the pace of market operation in the future for a long time. One is economic growth expectations, and the other is overseas uncertainties. The former mainly determines the trend of performance of A-share listed companies, while the latter will affect the repair process of market risk preferences.
On the whole, the current market sentiment repair is not stable, and the market's passivation degree for uncertain factors will continue to be effectively verified, and the short-term market is still in the process of grinding.
For the current market, the transaction structure problem is obviously more influential in the short term than the profit and valuation issues. 1) From the perspective of coefficient of variation, the market differentiation in this round of shocks is greater than ever. 2) In the process of the Shanghai Composite Index peaking until the market bottoming out, all the industries in the past market showed a downward trend. Since the Shanghai Composite Index hit a top, the pharmaceutical and food and beverage tourism industry recorded positive returns.
We are optimistic about growth stocks that serve domestic demand, have independent controllable technologies, and second-tier consumer goods. The semi-annual report performance forecast may have a certain strengthening effect on the market group behavior, but based on the follow-up market, the TMT field is mainly driven by the denominator, the second-line consumer goods that are less affected by uncertain factors, and the TMT field in the manufacturing industry dominated by growth stocks. With policy catalyzed expectations, it is expected to become the dominant direction of the market outlook. Specific optimistic about the pharmaceutical, commercial retail, agriculture, military and other industries; banks, real estate stocks are mainly optimistic about the valuation of the leading stocks repair opportunities, time for space, the year may have absolute benefits; electronics, computers, communications and other industries mainly through the bottom On the other hand, we choose the relevant targets that support the growth of the performance and have the fundamental support of independent controllable technology.
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|Fund code||Fund abbreviation||Income in the past two years||Handling fee||operating|
|167301||Founder Fubon Insurance Theme Index Classification||21.33%||0.80% 0.08%||buy Account opening|
|000251||ICBC Financial Real Estate Mix||11.50%||1.50% 0.15%||buy Account opening|
|160517||Boss China Securities Bank Index Classification||8.49%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Account opening|
|161121||E Fund Bank Rating||7.99%||1.00% 0.10%||buy Account opening|