The implementation rules for the assets and management of the two parties have all come out.
July 20, first issued by the China Insurance Regulatory CommissionMeasures for the Supervision and Administration of Financial Banking Business of Commercial Banks (Draft for Comment)"; then the central bank released "Notice on Further Clarifying the Relevant Matters Concerning the Guidance of Financial Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions"; then the CSRC also released on the evening of the 20thMeasures for the Administration of Private Equity Assets Management of Securities and Futures Operating Agencies (Draft for Comment)》.
Statistics show that as of the end of June, the balance of non-guaranteed wealth management products of banks was 21 trillion yuan; the scale of private equity management of securities and futures institutions was 25.91 trillion yuan; the number of investors in China also reached 140 million, which means capital The new regulations will have an impact on the 47 trillion yuan capital market and 140 million shareholders.
On the 21st, brokerage Chinese journalists have read the new rules from the top ten key points (The CSRC sent heavy weight late at night! Since then, the 47 trillion assets have been “full and tight” and the stock market will welcome incremental funds. These ten key interpretations must be seen), let's take a look at how the agency is reviewed.
1, the general direction: adhere to the direction of de-lost without wavering
CITIC Securities: The trend of smooth transition has not changed
The staged relaxation of regulation embodied in the rules does not mean that the policy of financial deleveraging has turned. Preventing and defusing systemic financial risks is an important part of risk prevention. In the next 3-5 years, the direction of financial de-leverage is clear. Financial strict supervision is still committed to improving financial formats and promoting financial services to the real economy.
Therefore, the relaxation shown in the two documents can be seen as a concrete manifestation of the current macroeconomic policy review situation and the strengthening of flexible coordination between policies. It may improve the current structural constraints in the macro economy, stabilize market expectations, and resolve risks in the process of transformation. Have a lot of help.
Warburg Securities: It is adjustment rather than steering
On the whole, the two new documents of the financial management and the "Notice" are relaxed relative to the requirements of the new regulations of the asset management, which will alleviate the pressure faced by the current commercial banks to a certain extent, and reduce the trading friction in the process of returning assets to the market. The impact will be on, restore confidence in the credit market, and moderately ease the credit tightening pressure facing the current real economy.
At the same time, with the release of the document, it will have a positive impact on eliminating market uncertainty and stabilizing market expectations, and can promote the restart of the current partially stagnant business. Despite some relaxation, the two documents have adhered to the new rules of asset management, such as breaking the redemption, eliminating the mismatch of maturity, dismantling the pool of funds, compressing and cleaning up the stock, de-nesting, and strengthening the management of penetration. The continuation of the new regulations on asset management.
On the whole, the direction of financial deleveraging remains unchanged, only taking into account the complex internal and external risk factors, and fine-tuning the implementation of policies.
Guotai Junan: The general direction of de-leverage and strict supervision has not wavered
After the closing yesterday, the new financial regulations and the central bank's supporting notice were announced. From the specific documents released in the evening, the general direction of de-leverage and strict supervision has not wavered. At the same time, people close to the central bank also came out to express the "big release" of media reports. May appear. The market began to regain its rationality. Last night, the 205 interest rate of the National Open 205 has dropped from the high of 4.18 to 4.135, which is only 2bp higher than the closing price on Thursday.
Huang Yiping, the central bank's consultant: insist on delevering and unwavering
Although the “New Regulations on Assets and Controls” adopts a transitional method for the new and old businesses, giving the market a relatively adequate buffer period, due to the unclear understanding of the specific requirements of financial institutions for actual business operations, the specific provisions on the “new regulations for asset management” are There are differences in understanding. In order to avoid misunderstanding of policy understanding and the possible deviations in the implementation of the “new regulations”, financial institutions either adopt an over-tightened one-size-fits-all approach or adopt a wait-and-see attitude of passive waiting, which is somewhat exacerbated. Financial market tensions.
The “New Regulations on Assets and Regulations” has always adhered to the policy direction of de-leverage, further clarifying the regulatory standards and requirements, and fully considering the actual situation of China’s financial market development and the reasonable financing needs of the real economy, which is conducive to eliminating market uncertainty. Stabilizing market expectations, ensuring the stable operation of the financial market, will create a healthy monetary and financial environment for the real economy, and more conditions to win the battle against major risks.
Zeng Gang, Director of the Banking Research Center of the National Finance and Development Laboratory: Cannot over-interpret the relaxed meaning of the rules
The new financial regulations and supporting "Notice" are further refinement of the new regulations on asset management. The contents are all based on the new regulations on asset management, and no new regulations or amendments have been made to the new regulations.
On the one hand, it puts forward more specific and detailed requirements for the bank wealth management business and asset management business; on the other hand, taking into account the actual situation of the implementation of the new regulations, the pressure on the banks and other influences, in order to ensure the smooth implementation of the new regulations for asset management, The details have been clarified to avoid excessive interpretation of financial institutions and excessive interpretation, which will alleviate the impact of financial regulation on liquidity and ensure the healthy health of the real economy.
In the short-term, the flexibility and autonomy of the bank during the transition period have increased, which has a certain boost to the development of the asset management business; but in the long run, it must also be clearly recognized that the basic requirements of the new regulation of the asset management have not changed. The reshaping of the asset management industry is still a certain direction. In this sense, institutions cannot over-interpret the relaxed meaning of “new financial regulations” and “notices”, and slow down the pace of bank wealth management.
2. How to influence the stock market bond market? Improve liquidity
Ping An Securities: The introduction of rules will help boost liquidity and risk appetite
Ping An Securities believes that the A-share market will benefit from the effective improvement of liquidity repair and risk appetite. The comprehensive implementation of the relevant rules of the new capital management rules will also help to repair the pessimistic expectation of the continued over-regulation of the supervision. The upward momentum of the equity market is in the policy signal. The adjustment is more clear.
On the investment proposal, on the one hand, the repair of liquidity and risk appetite will help the rebound of the growth sector, and it is recommended to focus on the new economic sector in the direction of economic transformation. On the other hand, the financial sector that directly benefits the policy adjustment also has a larger estimate. Value repair space.
Tianfeng Securities: Alleviating the liquidity pressure brought by product liquidation
The rules leave a gap in the regulations on the public offering of wealth management products to invest in domestically listed stocks. The institutional conflicts in which wealth management products must flow through several levels of nesting to the secondary market are expected to be resolved.
In addition, the “Notice” of the central bank confirmed that “old products can invest in new assets”, which means that “non-compliant” products such as multi-layered or mismatched non-standard assets can be renewed. Re-invest in the stock market.
Previously, the central bank window had to clean up one-third of the non-compliant products each year, which led to selling pressure on related stocks. According to the new rules, the trading pressure is expected to improve.
Huatai Securities: Non-standard investment is less difficult, encourage funds to invest in stock market bond market
The Bank of China's Banking Regulatory Commission's approach to the management of wealth management business and the supplementary notice of the central bank's new regulations on the new regulations, the direction is in line with our pre-judgment of the rules in the previous period, significantly reducing the transition period of the new asset management regulations (before the end of 2020). The difficulty of standard investment encourages wealth management funds to invest in the stock market bond market.
After we judged the policy release, the non-standard investment in bank wealth management will gradually recover. The contraction trend of social financing outside the table in the third quarter is suspended, and the margin of physical credit is loose, which is conducive to solving the credit risk problem caused by liquidity tension in the first half of this year. For the banking sector, the risk factors have been eliminated, the regulatory boots have landed, and the trend of plate reversal has taken shape.
Industrial Securities: boosting big innovations and continuing to "counterattack"
The main reason for the current round of market decline was the rapid decline in investor risk appetite under the “internal and external troubles” pattern. Since July, with the phased relief of “internal and external troubles”, we have emphasized that the market is welcoming counterattack opportunities and focusing on the direction of big innovation.
At present, with the gradual landing of the new rules and regulations for asset management, the rhythm has been alleviated more than expected, and it is expected to further promote the opportunity of “counterattack” of innovations represented by medicine, computer and mechanical military. At the same time, the position and valuation are both low, benefiting from the new financial regulations, the big financial leader has the opportunity to repair in the short term.
Haitong Securities: Credit freeze is expected to ease
The "Central Bank Notice" can be regarded as the implementation rules for the new regulations on asset management. The principles of breaking the new rules, eliminating nesting and unified supervision in the new regulations of the asset management have not changed. However, in terms of non-standard investment, compression rhythm, pricing method, etc., it has been relaxed than the most pessimistic expectation of the market. More precisely, the above-mentioned relatively vague provisions in the new regulations on capital management are further clarified.
As a supporting regulation for the new regulations, the new financial regulations have fully implemented the spirit of the new regulations and the “Notice of the Central Bank”. The implementation of the scale of relaxation mainly due to the sudden decline in non-standard financing, increased pressure on refinancing of entities, and frequent credit defaults. Appropriate relaxation is conducive to more smooth implementation and ease of credit tightening pressure.
Lianxun Securities: Only when the stock market bottoms out, can it be substantial
For stocks, the new financial regulation has opened up channels for public offerings to invest in the stock market (indirect investment stocks and hybrid funds), at least in the news, but as a conservative financial fund, in uncertainty and certainty. In front of us, we must choose certain assets with certainty. Therefore, only the stock market itself has obvious signs of bottoming out. The positive news can turn into substantial positives. Otherwise, the scale of wealth management funds flowing into the stock market through public offerings will be very limited.
3. How to influence the bank wealth management market? Substantial benefit
Huatai Securities macro research Li Chao: can form a substantial positive
In addition to the main investment in standardized debt-type assets and listed trading stocks, publicly-raised asset management products can also appropriately invest in non-standardized debt-type assets, but should comply with the regulatory requirements for time-matching, quota management, and information disclosure of non-standard investments.
After the end of the transition period, for the non-standard creditor assets that are difficult to return due to special reasons, and the unexpired stock equity assets, the commercial banks may, with the consent of the regulatory authorities, take appropriate arrangements to handle them in a safe and orderly manner. This gives the bank more room to deal with such assets. For long-term non-standard credit assets that cannot be returned, the bank does not need to issue equivalent long-term wealth management products to dock, but also solves some equity investments. Unable to meet the problem that the on-board regulatory requirements cannot be returned. This reduces the market's concerns about the possible impact of financial rules on the market and the formation of substantial benefits for banks.
Zhong Jin's fixed-income analyst Zhang Jiqiang: Helps ease the difficulty of transformation
In practice, many public offerings of new products are not approved for purchase in the process of filing.
At present, in the process of preventing risks and de-leveraging, policies such as new regulations on capital management have led to a large gap in financing channels. Even in overseas markets, in fact, asset management products can also invest in certain alternative assets. Therefore, facing the reality, diverting and blocking the weight may be a better treatment plan, which helps to ease the transformation difficulty of financial management.
Industrial Securities: Conducive to the healthy development of bank wealth management
Since the implementation of the “New Asset Management Regulations” at the end of April, due to the alternating period of new and old products, and many rules are in a vague zone, the scale of wealth management has been rapidly compressed. As of the end of June 2018, the balance of non-guaranteed wealth management products of banks was 210,000. 100 million yuan, a decrease of 1.18 trillion yuan from the end of May, and the scale and proportion of interbank financial management continued to decline. The landing of this new financial regulation means clearing the requirements for the issuance of new products, and also eliminating the uncertainty caused by the unsettled rules of the product distribution in the past two months. The future financial market is expected to develop healthily.
Sun Haibo, Dean of the Financial Supervision and Research Institute: The non-standard ratio of investment in the bank's investment company will be separately stipulated
In the future, public offerings can set their own investment non-standards, and only need to retain 5% of cash or interest rate bonds. This is a big difference from the expectations of the entire market in the past three months, and it is also the core measure to prevent further collapse of the community. The financial management issued by a bank is still limited by the ratio of 4% and 35% of the total. However, there is no restriction on the non-standard ratio of individual public offerings, which greatly provides the feasibility of non-standard public offerings.
In the future, the commercial bank of the company will be established. The non-standard ratio of investment of its subsidiaries will be separately stipulated. The 4% and 35% of the continuation here only apply to commercial banks that have not yet established a pipe company.
CITIC Securities clearly: greatly eased the pressure on commercial banks' debt loss
The new regulations for asset management supplement the "Notice" stipulates that during the transition period, the regular open-end product investment with a closed period of more than half a year is for the purpose of collecting contractual cash flow and holds the bonds due, which can be measured using amortized cost, but periodically. The duration of an open product holding portfolio cannot be longer than 1.5 times the closed period. Relevant measures will greatly ease the pressure on commercial banks to lose their liabilities during the transition period.
In addition, in order to further reduce the debt shortage situation of commercial banks, the regulatory layer has accelerated the substitution process of the bank's cash management products to the money fund, and agreed to evaluate the products according to the “amortized cost + shadow pricing” method of the money market fund. . Therefore, it is expected that the size of the money fund will shrink further in the future.
4. How do you understand the rules? It is the biggest benefit in itself.
Tianfeng Securities Xu Wei: The significance of the new financial regulations is greater than the relaxation of details
Analyst Xu Wei pointed out that several heavy documents began to solicit opinions on Friday night:
First, the document has been relaxed in some details, which has alleviated the pressure of non-standard and outsourcing.
Second, but the overall framework will not jump out of the new regulations, which means that the policy direction of de-leverage will not change. The current signs can be seen mainly by adjusting the pace and intensity.
Thirdly, in fact, the new rules of financial management and the implementation details are the biggest advantages. The reason is that before the bank financing funds were not compliant, the products could not be renewed, only stocks and non-standard “selling”, and at the same time There is no "buy" for the establishment of new products, and as long as the new rules can be implemented, this situation will be marginal improvement. Fourth, optimistic about the oversold rebound of the main board (mainly based on valuation repair), but more optimistic about the main line of "head growth", including the growth leader in computers, semiconductors, military industry and medicine.
Licensing of Licensing Securities: The new financial management is weaker than expected
Public offerings and private equity financing products still have a distinction in terms of investment scope, leverage ratio, liquidity management, and information disclosure requirements. The reduction of the public offering of wealth management products to 10,000 is beneficial to the enhancement of recruitment ability, but for the first time, it is still required to face-to-face and strengthen sales management. Constrained the Internet, electronic distribution and distribution space.
The non-standard still requires strict implementation of the term matching principle, except that the requirements of Circular No. 8 shall not exceed 35% of the net assets of wealth management products or 4% of the total assets of the bank, and also emphasize the concentration management, which shall not exceed 10% of the net capital of the bank. .
Overall, the draft for financial advice helps to alleviate the risk of stock debt caused by sports regulation and early redemption of unexpired stock assets, but the incremental improvement in risk appetite is weaker than expected, and leverage is still On the road.
Everbright Securities: Some of the new rules of financial management are relaxed but not very large
Everbright Securities's collection team believes that the regulatory documents such as the “Financial New Regulations” are released earlier, and financial institutions are more “legally compliant”, forming a relaxation at the actual implementation level.
Some of the provisions in the New Financial Regulations (Draft for Comment) are more relaxed than the current ones. This is mainly concentrated on the “stock assets that cannot be returned after the end of the transition period” and the “starting point of sales of public offerings”. We call it "extra-legal". It should be emphasized that the "New Financial Regulations" are the supporting rules in the "Capital Management Framework", so there will not be much substantial relaxation on the scale. In fact, some market investors believe that “relaxation” is only “clear”.
Political Bank of Industrial Bank Lu: The starting point of public fundraising sales fell to 10,000
Lu political commissar pointed out: "This is a new regulation, but it is not unexpected that the starting point for sales has dropped from 50,000 to 10,000. The impact is not great, because non-bank products are originally a piece of money, just saying that it is now possible to buy a bank. I manage my money."
As for the market view, some of the provisions of the “New Financial Regulations” are more relaxed than the current documents. The political commissar of Lu said that the core idea of the new regulations is to unify supervision. The scale is the same and cannot be understood by “relaxation”. .
Wang Jun, chief economist of Zhongyuan Bank: Lihao is limited, and the fierce competition pattern of the banking industry has not changed.
Although wealth management products can be part of the non-standard, but the investment ratio is still relatively strong, there are specific requirements in the period matching and concentration. Therefore, from this point of view, the benefits are actually limited. He said that the principle and direction of the new regulations for asset management have not changed, and the determination of the regulatory authorities to manage the chaos in the financial market has not changed. The pattern of fierce competition in the future facing the banking industry has not changed.
Analysis and interpretation >>
Bank, insurance, military technology, take the lead
Above 2 are optimistic