After three consecutive days of heavy attack, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and contracted. It closed down slightly by 0.07% and closed at 2,900 points, closing at 2,903.65 points. The total turnover of the two cities was 397.3 billion yuan, and the industry sector was mixed, and the construction sector once again started to rise and stop.
For the market trend of the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Haitong Securities:The rebound is still on the road
A shareholdings are undervalued and perform better. Recently, the trend of A-share market and US stocks showed a trend of differentiation. Further, from the performance of heavyweight stocks, there are 5 technology stocks in the top ten heavyweight stocks of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has been the main gainer since March 23 In the strong performance of technology stocks, and the A-share representative index, there are 5 financial stocks in the top ten heavyweights of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Since March 23, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 shock adjustment has been mainly dragged down by financial stocks. From a fundamental point of view, the overall fundamentals of the A-share market are still positive. The total net profit of the first quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 14.4% and 18.2%, both historical data and current data. The weighted stocks in the A-share market are undervalued and perform better. The median compound growth rate of the top ten net weights of the S&P 500 in the past ten years is 8%, which is lower than the 23% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 constituent stocks. The average ten PE of the S&P 500 top ten heavyweights in the past ten years The median is 20, which is higher than the 10.5 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.
The short-term rebound is already on the way. In the previous period, the cumulative decline has reached 25%. Similar to the market in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2016, the market is expected to rise in July and August. The market is expected to rise in July and August. The short-term rebound is already on the road. The main logic has three points: First, after the previous shock adjustment, the A-share market valuation is already at a low level. At present, all A shares of PE (TTM, the overall method) are 15.9 times, and PB (LF, the overall method) is 1.70 times. The quantile corresponding to the valuation from low to high since 2005 is 27% and 8%. From the main index, the Shanghai Composite Index currently has a PE of 12.9 times, corresponding to a low-to-high quantile of 25% since 2005, with SSE 50 of 9.9 times and 27%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 11.9 times. %, CSI 500 is 22.3 times, 3%, and small and medium plate refers to 26.6 times, 18%. From the median valuation, the median of all A shares of PE and PB is 31.2 times and 2.53 times respectively, and the quantifiers corresponding to low-to-high valuations since 2005 are 32% and 26% respectively. Second, the policy expectation improvement signal is gradually clear. On June 20, the management pointed out that it is necessary to maintain a reasonable liquidity and stable operation of the financial market. On June 24, the central bank announced that it will implement a targeted RRR cut. On June 27, the central bank stated in the second quarter of the monetary policy committee meeting that it should “maintain the flow. "Sure reason is sufficient", on July 20th, "one line and two sessions" issued the new rules on the same day. Third, the market's sensitivity to overseas uncertainties is reduced.
However, in the medium term, we have characterized the market since the 2,618 points of the Shanghai Composite Index at the end of January 2016 as a large arc-bottom shape that oscillates the box, similar to July 1994 to January 1996 and January 2002 to 2005. In June of the year, from January of 2012 to June of June, the valuation level of the market continued to move downward during the shock period, and the time was changed to form a medium- and long-term arc bottom. From this point of view, the grinding of the round bottom shape of this round still takes time.
Growth stocks are more resilient during the rebound, and bank stocks will benefit from new policy regulations. For the rebound window from July to August, the growth stocks are more likely, mainly due to the significant decline in the valuation of growth stocks, and the fundamentals of some growth stocks are still good. In addition, with the introduction of new regulations on wealth management and new financial regulations, the valuation of bank stocks will be repaired in the short term. In addition, in the future arc bottom grinding stage, the consumption white horse plate is still a better configuration variety.
Essence Securities:The rebound will continue to deduct
In the communication process with investors last week, we found that investor sentiment gradually recovered. More and more investors believe that the recent policy has released a positive signal and the market rebound base has been strengthened. We believe that the recent policy is indeed continuing to release positive signals, which is conducive to market stability. The future market main line will focus on the new economy, including new technologies and new consumption, and funds will be further gathered to relevant quality companies.
Last weekend, the “one line and two meetings” issued new policy rules on the same day. The market’s policy expectations for de-leveraging in the financial sector have improved, which helps the market preferences to be repaired.
The semi-annual report of the fund shows that the position of the GEM is still at a historically low level. In the second quarter, the allocation ratio of the fund to the GEM stocks was 13.67%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous quarter. Combined with the historical level, the current allocation level of the fund for the GEM is in the low position since the fourth quarter of 2014 (the historical average position is 15.48%), indicating that there is still much room for improvement in the future. In the second quarter, the fund held a total of 183 stocks on the GEM, holding 2.862 billion shares, and the total market capitalization was 58.88 billion yuan, down 15.67%, up 9.10% and up 5.23% from the first quarter. From the perspective of configuration ratio, the fund is in a slightly over-allocated state for the GEM (+3.95 percentage points).
In terms of the industry configuration of the fund in the second quarter, the absolute net increase in the fund in the second quarter has a higher pharmaceutical industry (+4.36 percentage points), food and beverage (+2.84 percentage points), computer (+1.73 percentage points), and home appliances (+ 1.14 percentage points) and basic chemicals (+0.78 percentage points). Among them, computer, communications, military and other growth industry funds in the second quarter of the allocation ratio is still low.
In addition, it is worth noting that listed companies have frequently conducted stock repurchase operations in the near future, and are mainly concentrated in the growth sectors such as TMT, pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment. As a market participant who fully understands the intrinsic fair value of stocks, listed companies are currently focusing on stock repurchases, which also indicates their confirmation of the bottom stage of the market and their confidence in the future development of the company.
On the whole, the core logic of the short-term A-share market operation is the repair of market sentiment, the bottom of the stage is further consolidated, the rebound market will continue to deduct, and there are certain opportunities in the market as a whole. In the medium term, I am more optimistic about the growth style, focusing on the sectors of computer, communications, military, new energy vehicles, electronics, education, and pension, especially the semi-annual report performance trend is upward or unexpected.
Guosen Securities:Market inflection point
Last weekend, the central bank issued the "Notice on Further Clarifying the Relevant Matters Concerning the Guidance of Financial Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions". At the same time, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Measures for the Supervision and Management of Commercial Banks' Financial Management Business (Draft for Comment)", and the CSRC issued "Securities and Futures". The Measures for the Management of Private Asset Management Businesses of Operational Institutions (Draft for Comment) and the Regulations on the Operation and Management of Private Asset Management Plan of Securities and Futures Operating Agencies (Draft for Comment), relevant documents have correspondingly explained the implementation rules of the new regulations on asset management. Provisions.
In general, the policies introduced this time show more flexibility and easing in the specific implementation details, which is also the main reason that the market is understood as a positive factor to a certain extent. In combination with the previous central bank window to guide banks to purchase low-grade credit bonds, and management deployment to further ease the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises, and continue to promote the real economy to reduce costs and other policy measures, we believe that policy expectations tend to improve, A-share market turning point can be expected.
For the A-share market, the year-on-year growth rate of social welfare balance and the fluctuation of credit spread of low-rated bonds since 2018 are two important factors that restrict the market. Looking ahead to the market, due to the expected warming of the policy, it is expected that the credit spread will be seen to fall from a high level and the corporate financing environment will improve, which will help improve the operating environment of the A-share market.
From the structure point of view, the combination of high cash flow and low asset-liability ratio of listed companies has a significantly higher yield, while the stock portfolio with relatively weak cash flow and higher asset-liability ratio has a lower performance. As the market expects to continue to improve, it is expected that companies with higher debt ratios will have more opportunities for repair. In terms of sector configuration, in addition to financial stocks, we can actively focus on oversold sectors such as real estate, construction and environmental protection.
Mainly a large number of retail investors completely desperate to leave the stock market. There is no incremental funding. Large-scale hot money and professional retail investors frequently chase and rise.
The stocks of the stocks were all caused by the mutual killing of the large institutions.
Even the national team relied on prophetic news and big money manipulation, and over-allotment of new shares. Hundreds of billions of state-owned bank shares have been paid for dividends.
Small profits have just arrived at the interest on its bank loans.