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On Wednesday, July 25, at 23:30 Beijing time, the onshore RMB against the US dollar (CNY) closed at 6.7690 yuan, up 225 points from Tuesday's night trading; the daily trading volume was 32.465 billion US dollars, down 2.238 billion US dollars from Tuesday. US stocks retreated back to the 6.77 mark after the market.
On Wednesday afternoon, the official closing price of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7784, up 316 points from the official closing price of the previous day, up 131 points from the previous day's close.
The offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 6.76 mark and rose more than 500 points in the day. Offshore Renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar at 04:59 Beijing time reported 6.7553 yuan, up 558 points in late New York on Tuesday, the intraday trading in the overall range of 6.8207-6.7534 yuan.
Some brokerage research reports pointed out that if the tendency and trend of RMB exchange rate depreciation are obvious, it will affect the A-share capital. For the bond market, the depreciation of the RMB makes the foreign exchange reserve lower and the foreign debt is reduced. The impact of bond market interest rates will gradually emerge.
From the data point of view, the layout of A-shares in the north is still positive, and the net inflow of funds is obvious.
As of July 24, the net inflow of funds to the north in the past six months was 148.295 billion yuan, and the net inflow of funds to the north in the past month was 16.603 billion yuan. According to the month, in the first half of this year, only a net outflow of 2.630 billion yuan occurred in February, and all other months showed a net inflow of funds.
At 22:00 on July 24, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued the "External Sector Report" (ESR), which mentioned that China's current foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the current account surplus accounted for a relatively large external imbalance since the financial crisis. Has been greatly improved.
In the case of the renminbi, the real effective exchange rate depreciated by 2.5% in 2017, driven mainly by the depreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate of 2.2%. As of May 2018, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated by 3.4% from 2017. However, it is worth noting that since the middle of June, the depreciation of the RMB has accelerated, and the offshore RMB has fallen more than 6% against the US dollar.
The IMF believes that, overall, the RMB exchange rate is roughly in line with the exchange rate implied by fundamentals and ideal policies. The current current account is still strong, mainly because the current account is still less flexible for the real effective exchange rate, which also leads to problems such as excess savings. In the future, with the continuous opening of the capital account and the diversification of the assets of the residents, the RMB exchange rate may decline in the medium term.
In terms of cross-border capital flows, China’s net capital outflow fell to 82.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2017, a sharp drop from the record of 647 billion U.S. dollars in 2015 and 646 billion U.S. dollars in 2016.
The IMF recommends that China achieve a more efficient floating exchange rate and needs to strengthen domestic financial stability. At the same time, China should take measures to encourage FDI inflows, which will have a positive growth spillover effect and improve corporate governance standards.