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Financial commentary
Published on 2018-07-26 09:16:35 Share it web version
                        The central parity of the yuan has risen sharply by 378 points, the largest increase since July 5, 2018.
Source: Eastern Fortune Network

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The central parity of the yuan was raised 378 points today to 6.7662, the biggest increase since July 5, 2018. Experts said that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the renminbi, pushing the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown an ups and downs. Specifically, from January to February this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its appreciation trend since December last year. On February 7, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to a stage high of 6.2882, an increase of 3.91% from the end of the previous year; The stage is from early February to mid-April. After the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is slightly adjusted, it fluctuates within a narrow range from 6.27 to 6.35. The third stage is from mid-April to the present, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, and mid-June. The rate of depreciation has accelerated. At the same time, the change in the RMB exchange rate since mid-June has been independent of the US dollar. From June 19 to July 25, the US dollar index depreciated by 0.4%. However, contrary to the depreciation of the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB was reversed. In the middle price, the RMB depreciated by 5.6% against the US dollar.

In this regard, BOC Hong Kong chief economist E Zhizhao said yesterday that since June 2018, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted rapidly in a short period of time, and the depreciation has once exceeded the previous round of the down cycle. It is expected that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the RMB, which will push the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Xie Feng, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, said yesterday that the reasons behind the depreciation of the RMB mainly include: First, it has an impact on market psychology. The renminbi is an emerging market currency, and the risk is rising, making investors tend to hold safe-haven currencies in the short term. The second is the need for enterprises to repay foreign debt. Since June, some of the foreign debts issued by domestic enterprises have ushered in the peak of repayment, and the demand for foreign exchange purchases by enterprises has increased. Third, the risk appetite of overseas funds for the Chinese market has changed. Recently, domestic stock market volatility has risen, and overseas funds' risk appetite for domestic stock markets has declined. It can be seen that the inflow of funds from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong to the north has slowed down recently.

E Zhizhao said that at present, the basic economic factors play a leading role in the decision of the RMB exchange rate. The Chinese economy is running smoothly. The current account surplus is equivalent to the GDP ratio and remains at a sustainable level of 1.2%. The impact on the RMB exchange rate is biased towards neutrality. . The cross-border capital flows caused by capital projects will gradually surpass trade projects and become the main influencing factor of RMB exchange rate. The weight value of capital flow factors in the RMB exchange rate determination will rise rapidly, and the growth rate of capital flows related to financial markets will gradually exceed direct investment. Become an important influence variable of the RMB exchange rate trend. In addition, the strength of the US dollar index remains a source of pressure and an important external influence factor for the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate. At the beginning of 2018, the US dollar showed a downward trend. In the near future, the trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar will also be adjusted to trend fluctuations. The volatility is significantly smaller than the change of the US dollar index, and it is basically returning to the level of the beginning of the year.

Xie Feng believes that the depreciation of the RMB will not continue. First, the impact on market psychology will gradually fade. China's economy has shifted from over-reliance on investment and exports to a more balanced economic structure dominated by consumption. China's industrial system is complete, its domestic demand potential is huge, and the commodity and employment markets are highly resilient, with strong tolerance and maneuvering space. Second, the monetary authorities have sufficient tools to manage the exchange rate. China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system. Maintaining the basic stability of the renminbi at a reasonable and balanced level is the goal of exchange rate management. The relevant departments in the previous period have accumulated rich experience. If the foreign exchange market has short-term procyclical behavior, the relevant departments are fully capable of responding properly.

  Official voice >>

  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs refutes the theory of RMB exchange rate manipulation: China does not intend to stimulate exports through currency competitive devaluation

  Analysis and interpretation >>

  Three questions about the RMB exchange rate: What is the reason for the depreciation? What is the devaluation space? Is the exchange rate + domestic demand a new policy mix?

Posted on 2018-07-26 09:17:23
                            Good stock market
Published on 2018-07-26 09:17:58
                            I'm here to view the comments
Published on 2018-07-26 09:19:02
                            Hedging the old US tax and resolving the crisis of export enterprises?
Published on 2018-07-26 09:19:27
                            Medium or win
Published on 2018-07-26 09:20:34
                            There is no suspense in breaking seven, maybe it will reach 7 on National Day.
Published on 2018-07-26 09:20:50
                            Brick home
Published on 2018-07-26 09:20:55
                            The brick house jumped out again. It has long been known that exchange rate depreciation hedges import tariffs.
Posted on 2018-07-26 09:22:38
                            Haha I predict that the stock market's rise and fall today is the biggest since the close of July 25, 2018!
Published on 2018-07-26 09:23:55
                            Did you win again?
Published on 2018-07-26 09:26:44
                            The biggest increase in half a month, huh, huh!
Published on 2018-07-26 09:28:07
                            Do not change long-term depreciation expectations
Published on 2018-07-26 09:29:28
                            Good A shares
Published on 2018-07-26 09:36:11
                            Isn't the expert going to rebound in the first two days or not, and now it has become a reasonable range? Everyone is depreciating, so don’t cover up, definitely break 7
Posted on 2018-07-26 09:41:09
                            Ha ha
Posted on 2018-07-26 09:47:38
                            Xiaofu callback
Published on 2018-07-26 09:56:53
                            Renminbi depreciated the largest beneficiary stock 002922
Published on 2018-07-26 10:00:29
                            Is this the reason for looking down on A shares?
Published on 2018-07-26 10:06:51
                            People have no foundation and become the biggest winner.
Published on 2018-07-26 10:12:40
                            Hurry to buy dollars
Published on 2018-07-26 10:15:47
Original percentage :Haha I predict that the stock market's rise and fall today is the biggest since the close of July 25, 2018!
                            God predicted! The media can ask Daxian daily forecast!
Published on 2018-07-26 10:42:39
                            Long term depreciation
Published on 2018-07-26 11:08:08
Wallacevial :Isn't the expert going to rebound in the first two days or not, and now it has become a reasonable range? Everyone is depreciating, so don’t cover up, definitely break 7
                            It’s right to be right with the experts.
Published on 2018-07-26 11:51:10
                            Now the Chinese stock market is too lazy to say that it is more tears.
Published on 2018-07-26 12:50:36
                            Doesn't it mean that the appreciation of the renminbi will rise?
Published on 2018-07-26 12:51:50
Nainaidi wolf is coming :Did you win again?
                            What is winning again, we have not lost, and the last time is also a win-win situation.
Published on 2018-07-26 13:00:27
                            Or become the biggest winner
Published on 2018-07-26 14:57:36
                            The renminbi exchange rate is raised, while Air China is falling.
Published on 2018-07-26 15:12:14
                            Share B double kill
Published on 2018-07-26 15:48:55
Published on 2018-07-26 16:29:04
                            This article is meaningless
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Source: Eastern Fortune Network

K usdcnh_64

K usdcnyi_0

K usdcnyc_0

The central parity of the yuan was raised 378 points today to 6.7662, the biggest increase since July 5, 2018. Experts said that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the renminbi, pushing the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown an ups and downs. Specifically, from January to February this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its appreciation trend since December last year. On February 7, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to a stage high of 6.2882, an increase of 3.91% from the end of the previous year; The stage is from early February to mid-April. After the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is slightly adjusted, it fluctuates within a narrow range from 6.27 to 6.35. The third stage is from mid-April to the present, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, and mid-June. The rate of depreciation has accelerated. At the same time, the change in the RMB exchange rate since mid-June has been independent of the US dollar. From June 19 to July 25, the US dollar index depreciated by 0.4%. However, contrary to the depreciation of the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB was reversed. In the middle price, the RMB depreciated by 5.6% against the US dollar.

In this regard, BOC Hong Kong chief economist E Zhizhao said yesterday that since June 2018, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted rapidly in a short period of time, and the depreciation has once exceeded the previous round of the down cycle. It is expected that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the RMB, which will push the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Xie Feng, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, said yesterday that the reasons behind the depreciation of the RMB mainly include: First, it has an impact on market psychology. The renminbi is an emerging market currency, and the risk is rising, making investors tend to hold safe-haven currencies in the short term. The second is the need for enterprises to repay foreign debt. Since June, some of the foreign debts issued by domestic enterprises have ushered in the peak of repayment, and the demand for foreign exchange purchases by enterprises has increased. Third, the risk appetite of overseas funds for the Chinese market has changed. Recently, domestic stock market volatility has risen, and overseas funds' risk appetite for domestic stock markets has declined. It can be seen that the inflow of funds from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong to the north has slowed down recently.

E Zhizhao said that at present, the basic economic factors play a leading role in the decision of the RMB exchange rate. The Chinese economy is running smoothly. The current account surplus is equivalent to the GDP ratio and remains at a sustainable level of 1.2%. The impact on the RMB exchange rate is biased towards neutrality. . The cross-border capital flows caused by capital projects will gradually surpass trade projects and become the main influencing factor of RMB exchange rate. The weight value of capital flow factors in the RMB exchange rate determination will rise rapidly, and the growth rate of capital flows related to financial markets will gradually exceed direct investment. Become an important influence variable of the RMB exchange rate trend. In addition, the strength of the US dollar index remains a source of pressure and an important external influence factor for the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate. At the beginning of 2018, the US dollar showed a downward trend. In the near future, the trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar will also be adjusted to trend fluctuations. The volatility is significantly smaller than the change of the US dollar index, and it is basically returning to the level of the beginning of the year.

Xie Feng believes that the depreciation of the RMB will not continue. First, the impact on market psychology will gradually fade. China's economy has shifted from over-reliance on investment and exports to a more balanced economic structure dominated by consumption. China's industrial system is complete, its domestic demand potential is huge, and the commodity and employment markets are highly resilient, with strong tolerance and maneuvering space. Second, the monetary authorities have sufficient tools to manage the exchange rate. China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system. Maintaining the basic stability of the renminbi at a reasonable and balanced level is the goal of exchange rate management. The relevant departments in the previous period have accumulated rich experience. If the foreign exchange market has short-term procyclical behavior, the relevant departments are fully capable of responding properly.

  Official voice >>

  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs refutes the theory of RMB exchange rate manipulation: China does not intend to stimulate exports through currency competitive devaluation

  Analysis and interpretation >>

  Three questions about the RMB exchange rate: What is the reason for the depreciation? What is the devaluation space? Is the exchange rate + domestic demand a new policy mix?