The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated weaker today, closing down slightly by 0.74%, falling below the 2900 integer mark and closing at 2882.23 points. The GEM index was weaker, closing down 1.61% to close at 1606.12 points. The total turnover of the two cities was 380.2 billion yuan, the industry sector was mixed, and the low-priced stocks were active. Lotus Health, Tianjin Songjiang, Zhongjie Resources, Shunwei Shares, Guozhong Water, Chongqing Luqiao, Tenda Construction, Jianrui Wooneng, Many low-priced stocks such as Huasu Holdings, Jinbin Development and Mengzhou have a strong daily limit.
For the market trend of the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Founder Securities:There are two trends in the market outlook.
From the technical point of view, the current weekly index of the Shanghai Composite Index is bottoming out. The short-term market volatility will intensify, but the rebound trend has not changed.
The current A-share market is undergoing positive changes, which will enhance investors' optimistic expectations for future market trends.
Change, bring a turning point. From the super-scale targeted RRR reduction, to the large-scale release of the state treasury deposit funds, and then to the central bank window to guide the support of loan placement and credit bond investment, and to guide the capital interest rate center to fall, market liquidity has improved. The increase in market capitalization has been intended to avoid fluctuations in liquidity and ease market sentiment, which is conducive to the market turning point after the bottom area is identified.
Change, bring rise. Last weekend, the new regulations on asset management were introduced. Compared with the previous changes, for example, public offerings can be appropriately invested in non-standards. Transitional financial institutions can use old products to invest in new assets, and financial institutions independently determine rectification plans. With the expected marginal improvement in the de-leverage of the financial sector, the catalytic market will bring about a rise.
There may be two trends in the market outlook: one is to continue to rebound, and then to oscillate around 3000 points to change space. This trend period is longer, such as the range of shocks from 2013 to 2014. The other is to make a second rebound after a quick rebound, forming a "W" trend. This trend cycle is relatively short, such as the bull market in 2005. Judging from the current market conditions, the probability of the first trend in the market outlook is greater. But no matter what, the current market is already in the bottom area, and the short-term market is expected to continue to rebound.
In terms of operation, it is light-indexed and heavy stocks. On dips, it pays attention to the recent high-profile stocks that have been slashed and slashed, avoiding the defensive varieties that are not in place.
Guotai Junan:Rebound rather than reverse
The new asset management regulation is conducive to the increase of risk appetite in the denominator market, which has become an important force to promote the recent market rebound. However, the relevant policy rules are still expected as a whole, and the de-leverage of the financial sector will continue to advance, and structural adjustments will still be made in related fields. Investors need to wait for a new round of credit expansion after leverage, that is, the focus of future attention is on the credit expansion of the public sector. Therefore, despite the recent marginal improvement in policy expectations, the market is only rebounding rather than reversing.
As an important disturbance factor in the recent market, the current overseas uncertainty has not been completely resolved. Investors should also be highly concerned about this, which will curb the continued boost of market risk appetite.
Along with the expected warming of policy expectations, the short-term market will usher in a rebound, in which the structure is more important than the position. On the one hand, there is a large micro-transaction structure problem in the consumer sector in the early stage, which is likely to cause a chain effect in the process of market restructuring. On the other hand, the market is expected to fluctuate in the steady growth of the consumer sector. On the contrary, in the phased repair process of market risk appetite, it is a valuation-sensitive “TMT in manufacturing” sector (computer, electronics, communications, military, Machinery, etc.) is expected to benefit from the risk-replacement repair logic, and the current transaction structure is good.
In terms of the theme investment, it is recommended that the rural revitalization strategy, nuclear power and other sectors, the stocks that were greatly adjusted in the early stage due to the impact of stock pledges or ushered in repair opportunities.
Xiangcai Securities:Market direction or gradually clear
Recently, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have rebounded. The main reasons are as follows:
First, after a relatively adequate shock adjustment in the previous period, the current valuation of the A-share market is already at the bottom of the history, and it has obvious advantages from the perspective of valuation.
Second, the implementation of the new regulations on the new asset management regulations on the same day of the “one line and two meetings” last weekend showed that the policy is expected to improve, which will help improve market liquidity expectations and market risk appetite.
Third, there is a marginal improvement requirement in the market sentiment, and the rate of decline in the balance of the two companies has also begun to slow down, indicating that the enthusiasm of investors has warmed up.
Fourth, from the semi-annual report of the A-share company and the semi-annual report that has been disclosed, the listed company's performance growth in the first half of the year is improving.
Fifth, the recent external disturbance factors have not shown signs of expansion, and the impact on the market is in the process of gradual resolution.
Sixth, from the macroeconomic data released recently, China's economic growth has maintained a strong resilience.
For the market outlook, from the factors affecting the market, factors such as low points, low valuations, and improved policy expectations are expected to prompt the market to deduct risk appetite to repair the market. With the release of economic data in the next July, the semi-annual report on the performance of listed companies, and the continuous implementation of relevant policies, the market direction will gradually become clear.