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Published on 2018-07-26 21:33:20 Share it web version
                        Offshore RMB fell more than 600 points against the US dollar, falling below the 6.82 mark
Source: Eastern Fortune Network

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Oriental Wealth Network on the 27th, the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell more than 600 points, a drop of nearly 1%, refreshing day to 6.8226 yuan.

The central parity of the yuan was raised by 378 points on the 26th to 6.7662, the largest increase since July 5, 2018. Experts said that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the renminbi, pushing the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown an ups and downs. Specifically, from January to February this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its appreciation trend since December last year. On February 7, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to a stage high of 6.2882, an increase of 3.91% from the end of the previous year; The stage is from early February to mid-April. After the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is slightly adjusted, it fluctuates within a narrow range from 6.27 to 6.35. The third stage is from mid-April to the present, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, and mid-June. The rate of depreciation has accelerated. At the same time, the change in the RMB exchange rate since mid-June has been independent of the US dollar. From June 19 to July 25, the US dollar index depreciated by 0.4%. However, contrary to the depreciation of the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB was reversed. In the middle price, the RMB depreciated by 5.6% against the US dollar.

In this regard, BOC Hong Kong chief economist E Zhizhao said yesterday that since June 2018, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted rapidly in a short period of time, and the depreciation has once exceeded the previous round of the down cycle. It is expected that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the RMB, which will push the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Xie Feng, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, said yesterday that the reasons behind the depreciation of the RMB mainly include: First, it has an impact on market psychology. The renminbi is an emerging market currency, and the risk is rising, making investors tend to hold safe-haven currencies in the short term. The second is the need for enterprises to repay foreign debt. Since June, some of the foreign debts issued by domestic enterprises have ushered in the peak of repayment, and the demand for foreign exchange purchases by enterprises has increased. Third, the risk appetite of overseas funds for the Chinese market has changed. Recently, domestic stock market volatility has risen, and overseas funds' risk appetite for domestic stock markets has declined. It can be seen that the inflow of funds from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong to the north has slowed down recently.

E Zhizhao said that at present, the basic economic factors play a leading role in the decision of the RMB exchange rate. The Chinese economy is running smoothly. The current account surplus is equivalent to the GDP ratio and remains at a sustainable level of 1.2%. The impact on the RMB exchange rate is biased towards neutrality. . The cross-border capital flows caused by capital projects will gradually surpass trade projects and become the main influencing factor of RMB exchange rate. The weight value of capital flow factors in the RMB exchange rate determination will rise rapidly, and the growth rate of capital flows related to financial markets will gradually exceed direct investment. Become an important influence variable of the RMB exchange rate trend. In addition, the strength of the US dollar index remains a source of pressure and an important external influence factor for the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate. At the beginning of 2018, the US dollar showed a downward trend. In the near future, the trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar will also be adjusted to trend fluctuations. The volatility is significantly smaller than the change of the US dollar index, and it is basically returning to the level of the beginning of the year.

Xie Feng believes that the depreciation of the RMB will not continue. First, the impact on market psychology will gradually fade. China's economy has shifted from over-reliance on investment and exports to a more balanced economic structure dominated by consumption. China's industrial system is complete, its domestic demand potential is huge, and the commodity and employment markets are highly resilient, with strong tolerance and maneuvering space. Second, the monetary authorities have sufficient tools to manage the exchange rate. China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system. Maintaining the basic stability of the renminbi at a reasonable and balanced level is the goal of exchange rate management. The relevant departments in the previous period have accumulated rich experience. If the foreign exchange market has short-term procyclical behavior, the relevant departments are fully capable of responding properly.

  官方声音>>

  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs refutes the theory of RMB exchange rate manipulation: China does not intend to stimulate exports through currency competitive devaluation

  分析解读>>

  Three questions about the RMB exchange rate: What is the reason for the depreciation? What is the devaluation space? Is the exchange rate + domestic demand a new policy mix?

Published on 2018-07-26 21:34:45
                            Come on
Published on 2018-07-26 21:35:17
                            Sooner or later, break 7.
Published on 2018-07-26 21:35:17
                            See 7
Published on 2018-07-26 21:35:21
                            it is good
Published on 2018-07-26 21:35:38
                            Don't understand
Published on 2018-07-26 21:35:42
                            great, good luck!
Published on 2018-07-26 21:35:54
                            Like a trip
Published on 2018-07-26 21:36:38
                            it is good
Published on 2018-07-26 21:36:48
                            Finished, the stock market is going to be dark again.
Published on 2018-07-26 21:36:56
                            Not far from breaking
Published on 2018-07-26 21:38:30
                            Tomorrow, the 77th trading day of the silver meal will continue
Published on 2018-07-26 21:38:49
                            What does it mean
Published on 2018-07-26 21:40:46
                            Come on
Published on 2018-07-26 21:42:14
                            Good military and military integration, Jinming Precision
Published on 2018-07-26 21:47:17
                            Renminbi depreciated, probably depreciating by 5%. There will be a large amount of foreign capital entering A shares tomorrow, but the stocks have not increased much.
Published on 2018-07-26 21:47:25
                            The Shanghai stock index is dangerous tomorrow.
Published on 2018-07-26 21:47:38
                            Anyway, it’s good.
Published on 2018-07-26 21:48:09
                            Dilemma
Published on 2018-07-26 21:48:43
                            See 7
Published on 2018-07-26 21:48:51
                            √
Published on 2018-07-26 21:49:08
                            Aviation stocks are finished
Published on 2018-07-26 21:50:12
                            All are within the controllable range.
Published on 2018-07-26 21:51:59
                            Directly break 2700 tomorrow
Published on 2018-07-26 21:55:02
                            it is good
Published on 2018-07-26 21:56:36
                            Pay for the pot. . Back to the cash era is the right way. . Let our currency become the top three
Published on 2018-07-26 21:59:50
                            Good
Posted on 2018-07-26 22:00:35
Ice gourd :Good military and military integration, Jinming fine machine
                            Ask for more happiness
Published on 2018-07-26 22:00:44
                            Breaking seven, eating is going up again
Published on 2018-07-26 22:05:18
                            Buying a large house is mainly consumed.
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Source: Eastern Fortune Network

K usdcnh_64

K usdcnyi_0

K usdcnyc_0

Oriental Wealth Network on the 27th, the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell more than 600 points, a drop of nearly 1%, refreshing day to 6.8226 yuan.

The central parity of the yuan was raised by 378 points on the 26th to 6.7662, the largest increase since July 5, 2018. Experts said that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the renminbi, pushing the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown an ups and downs. Specifically, from January to February this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its appreciation trend since December last year. On February 7, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to a stage high of 6.2882, an increase of 3.91% from the end of the previous year; The stage is from early February to mid-April. After the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is slightly adjusted, it fluctuates within a narrow range from 6.27 to 6.35. The third stage is from mid-April to the present, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, and mid-June. The rate of depreciation has accelerated. At the same time, the change in the RMB exchange rate since mid-June has been independent of the US dollar. From June 19 to July 25, the US dollar index depreciated by 0.4%. However, contrary to the depreciation of the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB was reversed. In the middle price, the RMB depreciated by 5.6% against the US dollar.

In this regard, BOC Hong Kong chief economist E Zhizhao said yesterday that since June 2018, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted rapidly in a short period of time, and the depreciation has once exceeded the previous round of the down cycle. It is expected that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the RMB, which will push the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.

Xie Feng, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, said yesterday that the reasons behind the depreciation of the RMB mainly include: First, it has an impact on market psychology. The renminbi is an emerging market currency, and the risk is rising, making investors tend to hold safe-haven currencies in the short term. The second is the need for enterprises to repay foreign debt. Since June, some of the foreign debts issued by domestic enterprises have ushered in the peak of repayment, and the demand for foreign exchange purchases by enterprises has increased. Third, the risk appetite of overseas funds for the Chinese market has changed. Recently, domestic stock market volatility has risen, and overseas funds' risk appetite for domestic stock markets has declined. It can be seen that the inflow of funds from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong to the north has slowed down recently.

E Zhizhao said that at present, the basic economic factors play a leading role in the decision of the RMB exchange rate. The Chinese economy is running smoothly. The current account surplus is equivalent to the GDP ratio and remains at a sustainable level of 1.2%. The impact on the RMB exchange rate is biased towards neutrality. . The cross-border capital flows caused by capital projects will gradually surpass trade projects and become the main influencing factor of RMB exchange rate. The weight value of capital flow factors in the RMB exchange rate determination will rise rapidly, and the growth rate of capital flows related to financial markets will gradually exceed direct investment. Become an important influence variable of the RMB exchange rate trend. In addition, the strength of the US dollar index remains a source of pressure and an important external influence factor for the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate. At the beginning of 2018, the US dollar showed a downward trend. In the near future, the trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar will also be adjusted to trend fluctuations. The volatility is significantly smaller than the change of the US dollar index, and it is basically returning to the level of the beginning of the year.

Xie Feng believes that the depreciation of the RMB will not continue. First, the impact on market psychology will gradually fade. China's economy has shifted from over-reliance on investment and exports to a more balanced economic structure dominated by consumption. China's industrial system is complete, its domestic demand potential is huge, and the commodity and employment markets are highly resilient, with strong tolerance and maneuvering space. Second, the monetary authorities have sufficient tools to manage the exchange rate. China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system. Maintaining the basic stability of the renminbi at a reasonable and balanced level is the goal of exchange rate management. The relevant departments in the previous period have accumulated rich experience. If the foreign exchange market has short-term procyclical behavior, the relevant departments are fully capable of responding properly.

  Official voice >>

  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs refutes the theory of RMB exchange rate manipulation: China does not intend to stimulate exports through currency competitive devaluation

  Analysis and interpretation >>

  Three questions about the RMB exchange rate: What is the reason for the depreciation? What is the devaluation space? Is the exchange rate + domestic demand a new policy mix?