The central parity of the yuan was lowered by 280 points today to 6.7942, once again approaching the 6.80 mark. Onshore, the RMB touched the 6.83 mark against the US dollar, hitting a new low in June 2017, which was about 400 points lower than the previous night's close. Offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below the 6.85 mark, refreshing the new low since June 2017.
CICC analyst Liang Hong released the latest report, pointing out that the recent narrow spread between China and the United States, the peak of overseas bond maturity of real estate companies, the downturn in the A-share market, and the concentration of dividends in the July-August stocks are all leading to 6 One of the behind-the-scenes pushers for the continued decline in the RMB exchange rate since the month. However, considering the limited space for the US dollar exchange rate to rise in the future, in the short term, the central bank can stabilize exchange rate expectations by communicating with the market and adjusting the middle price. In the medium and long term, it needs relevant departments to stabilize economic growth and boost future economic growth. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will be effectively stabilized.
Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown an ups and downs. Specifically, from January to February this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its appreciation trend since December last year. On February 7, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to a stage high of 6.2882, an increase of 3.91% from the end of the previous year; The stage is from early February to mid-April. After the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is slightly adjusted, it fluctuates within a narrow range from 6.27 to 6.35. The third stage is from mid-April to the present, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar, and mid-June. The rate of depreciation has accelerated. At the same time, the change in the RMB exchange rate since mid-June has been independent of the US dollar. From June 19 to July 25, the US dollar index depreciated by 0.4%. However, contrary to the depreciation of the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB was reversed. In the middle price, the RMB depreciated by 5.6% against the US dollar.
In this regard, BOC Hong Kong chief economist E Zhizhao said yesterday that since June 2018, the RMB exchange rate has been adjusted rapidly in a short period of time, and the depreciation has once exceeded the previous round of the down cycle. It is expected that in the short to medium term, there will be some new changes in the supply and demand sides of the RMB, which will push the RMB exchange rate to find a new equilibrium level.
Xie Feng, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, said yesterday that the reasons behind the depreciation of the RMB mainly include: First, it has an impact on market psychology. The renminbi is an emerging market currency, and the risk is rising, making investors tend to hold safe-haven currencies in the short term. The second is the need for enterprises to repay foreign debt. Since June, some of the foreign debts issued by domestic enterprises have ushered in the peak of repayment, and the demand for foreign exchange purchases by enterprises has increased. Third, the risk appetite of overseas funds for the Chinese market has changed. Recently, domestic stock market volatility has risen, and overseas funds' risk appetite for domestic stock markets has declined. It can be seen that the inflow of funds from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong to the north has slowed down recently.
E Zhizhao said that at present, the basic economic factors play a leading role in the decision of the RMB exchange rate. The Chinese economy is running smoothly. The current account surplus is equivalent to the GDP ratio and remains at a sustainable level of 1.2%. The impact on the RMB exchange rate is biased towards neutrality. . The cross-border capital flows caused by capital projects will gradually surpass trade projects and become the main influencing factor of RMB exchange rate. The weight value of capital flow factors in the RMB exchange rate determination will rise rapidly, and the growth rate of capital flows related to financial markets will gradually exceed direct investment. Become an important influence variable of the RMB exchange rate trend. In addition, the strength of the US dollar index remains a source of pressure and an important external influence factor for the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate. At the beginning of 2018, the US dollar showed a downward trend. In the near future, the trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar will also be adjusted to trend fluctuations. The volatility is significantly smaller than the change of the US dollar index, and it is basically returning to the level of the beginning of the year.
Xie Feng believes that the depreciation of the RMB will not continue. First, the impact on market psychology will gradually fade. China's economy has shifted from over-reliance on investment and exports to a more balanced economic structure dominated by consumption. China's industrial system is complete, its domestic demand potential is huge, and the commodity and employment markets are highly resilient, with strong tolerance and maneuvering space. Second, the monetary authorities have sufficient tools to manage the exchange rate. China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system. Maintaining the basic stability of the renminbi at a reasonable and balanced level is the goal of exchange rate management. The relevant departments in the previous period have accumulated rich experience. If the foreign exchange market has short-term procyclical behavior, the relevant departments are fully capable of responding properly.
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