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According to the latest data, in September, the prices of new and second-hand houses in the four first-tier cities of “North-Guangzhou-Guangzhou-Shenzhen” fell by 0.1% in September; the prices of new and second-hand houses in the second- and third-tier cities of 70 large and medium-sized cities all declined.
The reporter’s visit to the market also confirmed that the data has become “cold”: in the past month, Beijing’s opening or near opening projects have been discounted to varying degrees. From a nationwide perspective, the major real estate developers of “Golden September and Silver 10” chose to cut prices, and the volume of new houses in various places declined, and the market gradually fell back.
In the first-tier cities, the housing prices have been adjusted, and the real estate market in the second and third-tier cities has cooled down. It shows that the stringent regulatory policies have achieved remarkable results. The market is expected to undergo positive changes, the housing price increase momentum has been curbed, and the real estate market has remained stable.
Is the cooling of the real estate market trending? What is the future trend of housing prices?
Predicting the development pattern and prospects of real estate must first clarify the core policy orientation of China's real estate market development. The Central Political Bureau meeting held on July 31 proposed to resolve the problem of the real estate market, adhere to the city's policy, promote the balance between supply and demand, reasonably guide the expectations, rectify the market order, and resolutely curb housing prices. Accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Focusing on the positioning of “residence and non-speculation”, the current real estate regulation has been implemented for more than two years. Following the introduction of regulatory policies in the first half of the year, there were about 200 times. In the second half of the year, real estate regulation and control did not “take a breath, rest and rest”. Due to local conditions and precise policies, the responsibility of local regulation and control was being implemented.
On July 31, Shenzhen issued a series of control measures such as three-year limited sales, limited purchases, commercial apartments only for rent, and hot-selling licenses. On August 17, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development met with the principals of Haikou, Sanya, Yantai, Yichang and Yangzhou, and asked for serious clean-up and investigation of the problems such as squatting and squatting. Beginning in the second half of this year, more and more cities across the country have joined the provident fund policy to tighten.
It is worth noting that on September 7, the legislative plan of the 13th National People's Congress Standing Committee announced that the real estate tax law included the first category of projects with relatively mature conditions and drafts for consideration during the term of office.
The combination of the demand side and the supply side to control the "combination boxing" has created positive conditions for the stability of the property market. A lot of pilot work is being carried out in an orderly manner around the establishment of a housing system and a long-term real estate mechanism.
On the one hand, China is accelerating the establishment and improvement of urban housing security system, supporting first- and second-tier cities with large population inflows and other characteristic cities, increasing the effective supply of public rental housing and shared property housing, and increasing housing security for eligible new citizens.
On the other hand, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has accelerated the establishment of a real estate market monitoring system, improved the evaluation and evaluation mechanism for local real estate regulation and control, and strictly supervised, and firmly held accountability for places where work is weak, market volatility is large, and control targets are not achieved.
All kinds of policies show that the central government's determination to curb housing price rise will not change. The regulation and control measures are not the "flower boxing and embroidering legs" that are pretending to be installed, and the positioning of "household and non-speculation" is being further implemented from various aspects. The policy "speaking" plays a key role in guiding and stabilizing housing prices. It has brought back the turmoil in housing prices in first- and third-tier cities, and hopes that some places will be "flying for a while".
At present, there are some murmurs that the downward pressure on the economy may prompt the government to relax real estate regulation. To be clear, according to the spirit of the "resolving the real estate market problem" and "resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices" emphasized in the Central Political Bureau meeting on July 31, the real estate regulation will never be allowed to be abandoned and abandoned. If the real estate long-term mechanism is still under study and has not yet been fully established, the real estate regulation is gradually shifting from the administrative policy to the comprehensive policy, and will not allow any relaxation of the established regulatory policies. The system, the practice of allowing house prices to rise.
At the same time, we must also see that there are still some challenges in the healthy development of the real estate market that need to be gradually overcome. In the early stage, more emergency administrative measures were adopted. In the short-term, it has played a role in curbing housing prices and reducing risks. In the long run, it is necessary to change from administrative measures to comprehensive measures, including financial, land, fiscal, and housing security. Market management and other package of policy tools to achieve stable land prices, stable prices, stable expectations, and maintain a stable operation of the real estate market.
It can be foreseen that as long as the "house is used to live, not for speculation" position is firmly implemented in practice, keeping control and control constant, and accelerating the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, house prices will lose the foundation of irrational rise. Speculative buyers, land finance attachments and even the whole society need to recognize the general trend, lose the illusion that regulation will be relaxed due to the downward pressure on the economy, abandon the illusion of "re-ignition" of housing prices, adjust the mentality back to rationality, and calm down. Do something that is conducive to the long-term development of the national economy.
(Article source: Xinhua News Agency)