On October 31, the China Securities Journal reporter was informed that the selection results of the occupational annuity investment managers of the central government agencies and institutions were released. The occupational annuity of the central state organs and institutions includes 7 plans with a total of 41 accounts. 19 institutions shared the above 41 accounts. Among them, 9 institutions won the bid for 3 accounts, 4 institutions won the bid for 2 accounts, and 6 institutions won the bid for 1 account.
Selection results of occupational annuity investment managers in central state organs and institutions
It is worth noting that each of the above seven plans has two alternative institutions. Among them, Guotai Fund, PICC Asset Management Co., Ltd., Huatai Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Bosera Fund obtained two program qualifications. Changjiang Pension Insurance Co., Ltd., Taiping Pension Insurance Co., Ltd., Fuguo Fund, Haifutong Fund, Huaxia Fund, Yinhua Fund were awarded one program qualification.
Institutional sources expect that from the perspective of stocks, from October 1, 2014 to now, the scale of occupational annuity stocks is nearly 700 billion yuan; from the incremental point of view, since the occupational annuity fund payment is a rigid payment, the annual new payment is about 1500 yuan. About 100 million yuan.In the future, this part of the funds is expected to gradually enter various markets.
In addition, on the morning of the 31st, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security introduced at the press conference in the third quarter of 2018. As of the end of September, 15 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Beijing and Shanxi signed a contract with the Social Security Fund Council to entrust an endowment insurance fund investment contract. The total contract amount is 715 billion yuan, of which 416.65 billion yuan has been received and investment has begun..In the next step, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will promote the investment and operation of the basic endowment insurance fund, promote the implementation of the annuity fund system, and steadily promote the transfer of part of the state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund.
More long-term funds will help A-shares
At present, China has initially established a three-pillar endowment insurance system. The first pillar of basic endowment insurance includes urban employee pension insurance and urban and rural residents' endowment insurance, and the second pillar of occupational pension insurance, including enterprise annuities and occupational annuities, and the third pillar of individual pensions. Guarantee, the current trial of personal tax extended pension insurance.
As the first pillar of the pension system, China's current basic old-age security system includes two parts, the basic endowment insurance for urban workers and the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents. According to the research data of Industrial Securities, as of the end of 2017, the number of people participating in basic endowment insurance has reached 915 million, including 403 million people participating in basic endowment insurance for urban workers, and 512 million people participating in basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents. A broad coverage of the goal.
At the press conference on the 31st, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security stated that it will steadily promote the investment and operation of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees, accelerate the entrusted investment work for the basic endowment insurance fund for urban and rural residents, continue to strengthen the supervision of the market for annuity funds, and comprehensively carry out the risk prevention of social insurance funds. Control, organize and carry out provincial-level mutual investigation of special actions for risk management of social insurance.
Combined with the data of the three quarterly reports, the investment in pensions is increasing.
Judging from the progress of the market entry, according to the data disclosed in the third quarterly report, there are currently 15 pension shareholding accounts, holding 33 stocks in total, and the number of shareholding accounts and the number of shares held have set a record since the pension officially entered the market. In the third quarter, it has newly entered 24 stocks including Changshu Bank, Chongqing Water, Wuyuan Power, Gansu Power Investment, Panjiang, China Textile City, Yilite, Yueyang Xingchang and Zhongmu.
In terms of occupational annuities, institutional sources expect that from the perspective of stocks, from October 1, 2014 to the present, the size of the occupational annuity stock is nearly 700 billion yuan; from the incremental point of view, since the occupational annuity fund payment is a rigid payment, the new annual The increase in fees is about 150 billion yuan. In the future, this part of the funds is expected to gradually enter various markets.
Wang Cheng, an Ivy Asset Partner, said that China's stock market is currently in the bottom of history, and the gradual entry of pensions into the market is a positive factor for stabilizing market sentiment and bottoming market valuation.
Xingye Securities Wang Delun's strategy analysis team believes that such long-term funds have the advantages of large stocks, long investment horizons, stable cash inflows, etc., more like “capital”, not “hot money”, and concentration and endurance are inherent in them. The advantage that comes. In the long run, there are conditions to create more than expected investment returns, exempt from the high-frequency assessment pressure will certainly release a "institutional dividend", thus forming a certain "counter-cyclical" adjustment of the capital market.
From the perspective of policy orientation and pilot performance, Zhang Yulong, head of the CITIC Securities Investment Strategy Group, believes that the investment style and strategy of pensions entering the market will be similar to the social security fund. Current pension investments are biased towards low-value, high-performing, high-dividend mid-market companies. In terms of industry and configuration style, although the relatively conservative and low beta investment style is the mainstream configuration feature, the traditional cycle blue chip (resources, finance) has not gained more favor, except for medicine, food and beverage, and textile clothing. In addition to the consumer industry, its willingness to invest in some emerging industries (such as TMT, electronics) is also strong.
Combination mode of “direct investment + entrusted investment”
Wang Delun believes that from the perspective of investment methods, the pension investment method cannot break the combination mode of “direct investment + entrusted investment” in the Interim Measures for the Administration of Trust Payment of Trusts of the National Social Security Fund (2016 Revision).
Specifically, direct investment is directly managed by the Social Security Fund, which mainly includes bank deposits, trust loans, equity investments, equity investment funds, transfer of state-owned shares and indexed stock investments; entrusted investment is managed by the Social Security Fund. The operation mainly includes domestic and overseas stocks, bonds, securities investment funds, and derivative financial instruments such as swaps and forwards used for risk management abroad. The entrusted investment assets are managed by the custodians selected by the social security foundation.
According to the data of Industrial Securities, at the end of 2017, the social security fund directly invested assets of 914.471 billion yuan, accounting for 42.35% of the total assets of the social security fund; the entrusted investment assets were 1,281,633 million yuan, accounting for 57.65% of the total assets of the social security fund. In 2003 (the second year of the State Council promulgating the "Decision on Improving the Basic Endowment Insurance System for Enterprises"), the entrusted investment assets were only 31.887 billion yuan, accounting for 24.07%. It can be seen that relying more on the entrusted investment channel is a possible choice after the endowment insurance fund enters the market, which also helps to diversify investment risks.
It is worth noting that Wang Delun believes that the current background of pensions entering the market has certain specialities, including the resolution of equity pledge risks, support for private enterprises and small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises, and the establishment of healthy market expectations. It is impossible to rule out that such funds are “precisely drip” with some listed companies in the form of direct shareholdings, together with the multi-level and multi-species funds that have been established from the central government to the local government. "This is not without precedent. In June 2015, the National Social Security Fund strategically invested in Zhejiang Ant Micro Finance Services Group Co., Ltd., holding approximately 5% of the latter." Wang Delun said.
Zhang Yulong believes that the investment style of pensions is more cautious than the annualized rate of return of social security funds. The low-risk preference attribute superposition on the “money-making effect” will make the relationship between the risk asset allocation rhythm and the fundamentals closer.
Overall planning and actuarial balance should be done at the national level
Estimation of the overall investment income of basic pensions (2009-2017)
Source: Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Human Resources and Social Security, Industrial Securities Institute of Economics and Finance
Industrial Securities believes that the most important step in improving the investment management of basic pensions is to make overall planning and actuarial balance at the national level, and then set asset allocation targets and conduct investment management. The current basic pension investment management is faced with a balance between improving profitability and strengthening security and liquidity management:
In terms of the total amount, as the dependency ratio declines, the income and expenditure gap faced by the basic pension will gradually increase. In order to alleviate the financial burden, it will inevitably face the requirement of raising capital income. However, due to the current pay-as-you-go system, the funds will be led. Faced with greater security and liquidity pressures, the most important way to increase profits is to increase the proportion of equity assets, while the short-term equity assets, especially A-shares, have higher volatility. Increasing the proportion of allocation will inevitably increase the risk exposure of the portfolio. Sex is affected.
From the structure point of view, the basic pension does not currently achieve national co-ordination, but the provincial level co-ordination, so some provinces have no balance of pensions relying on financial replenishment or pension adjustment, some provinces have higher balances due to higher support. The long-term investment can be made from the provincial level, but if the subsequent adjustment of funds will lead to shortened investment period, it will increase the difficulty of asset allocation.
Wang Cheng believes that after the pension has gradually become an important force in the stock market, we are required to provide a relatively stable policy environment for the construction and management of the stock market, and to prevent human factors from causing huge fluctuations in the stock market.
(Article source: China Securities Journal)