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Published on 2019-01-11 11:27:39 Share it web version
                                    The renminbi's gains narrowed. The offshore renminbi against the US dollar fell back about 200 points in short-term.
Source: Eastern Fortune Network

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The exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate narrowed, and the offshore RMB fell against the US dollar by about 200 points in the short-term. Previously, the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar both rose above the 6.74 mark.

In the past week, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen and the appreciation has exceeded 1000 points. On Friday, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was raised by 251 points to 6.7909, the highest since July 26, 2018.

In addition, onshore renminbi against the US dollar at 16:30 closed at 6.7482, refreshing a new high in July last year, this week rose 1163 basis points, the largest weekly increase since the exchange rate reform in 2005, before the highest record for September 4, 2017 - The 1062 basis points increase recorded on the 8th.

According to the China Securities Journal, more and more people believe that the pressure of RMB depreciation will be significantly reduced in 2019, but the trend of appreciation may still be difficult to see, and the current rebound is still a repair-type rebound.

The possibility of the US dollar index ending up in 2019 is on the rise. Xie Yaxuan, China Merchants Securities, said that the strong US dollar cycle that began in 2012 may end. There are four reasons for this: First, the economic fundamentals and monetary policy between Europe, the United States and Japan are divided into convergence; second, Japan and the Eurozone are once again competitive. The possibility of a depreciation pushing up the US dollar index is lower; the third is the reverse spillover effect of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the US dollar; Fourth, the Fed rate hike does not constitute a supporting factor for the US dollar index.

Xie Yaxuan believes that with the end of the strong dollar cycle, emerging market currencies are expected to get rid of the pressure, the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound, and the international capital flowing to emerging economies is expected to gradually recover.

“The exchange rate trend will eventually return to the fundamentals.” Li Weijie, senior manager of foreign exchange operations of Zijin Mining Finance Co., also said that from the relative changes in growth expectations, the worst time for China’s economy is over, and the slowdown in US economic growth is also an indisputable fact. The fundamentals of the two countries have bottomed out and the summit has peaked. The time when the RMB depreciation pressure is the biggest has passed.

There are also market participants who believe that the economy needs to bottom out, and the basic support for the RMB exchange rate needs to be strengthened. In the short to medium term, it is difficult for the renminbi to show a decent appreciation.

It is worth mentioning that in recent days, there have been analyses on the trend of the US dollar in 2019 to investigate 75 foreign exchange strategists around the world. The survey results show that about two-thirds of respondents believe that the dollar's gains are basically over. However, the median survey shows that the best case for other major currencies against the US dollar in 2019 is to recover the lost land in 2018. The fall in the dollar in 2019 or the rise in other major currencies will be limited.

  Point of view link

  China Merchants Securities: RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound

The depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate began in 2014, slightly later than the start of the current strong dollar. The current depreciation expectation and depreciation pressure of the RMB exchange rate are closely related to the strength of the US dollar. After all, this round of US dollar strength is comparable to the big round of the two rounds of strong US dollars in the 1980s and 1990s. It is expected that the US dollar index will fall back in 2019, and the RMB exchange rate may be lower and higher, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. The volatility of the RMB exchange rate will rise further, with 6.72 as the hub, fluctuating within the upper and lower 6% range.

  Northeast Securities: January RMB depreciation pressure is not big

In December 2018, foreign exchange reserves rebounded, mainly due to the rise in foreign exchange asset prices, and the pressure on capital outflows did not ease. Specifically, the valuation effect and foreign exchange assets have risen by nearly 40 billion yuan, while the external reserve assets actually increased by 11 billion yuan. The gap is not low, and the foreign exchange accounting rate is negative. It is expected that the exchange rate depreciation pressure will be small in January 2019, and the probability of breaking 7 is not large. December and January are both large months of foreign exchange losses. It is expected that the foreign exchange account will change to a negative value in January.

  Tianfeng Securities: The dollar has a high probability of going down

Is the dollar going up or down? Need to grasp the key logic: the world cycle resonance down, the United States to other countries' cycle convergence. Fundamentally, the fundamentals of Europe are weak, and the fundamentals of the United States are still the supporting force of the US dollar. However, it is necessary to observe the convergence of the US cycle to the Eurozone. In terms of monetary policy, the US monetary policy is expected to adjust, and may eventually converge to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Path; in terms of liquidity, overseas dollar demand will fall. Thus, with the downturn of the US cycle, the dollar has a large probability of breaking down.

  缘何大涨>>>

  The renminbi rocket is launched into the air. Will the money in your hand be worth more?

  相关报道>>>

  Xie Yaxuan: The US dollar index is already at the end of the renminbi. The RMB exchange rate has gradually stabilized.

  E Yongjian: It is expected that the pressure on RMB depreciation will be significantly reduced

  Huatai Macro: Medium and long-term RMB exchange rate is highly probable

Published on 2019-01-11 11:32:27
                                                We have fallen outside and we have fallen sharply. The depreciation of the renminbi has fallen sharply, and we are still falling as the renminbi appreciates.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:31:37
                                                The stock market crashed in the early period, and you said that it was affected by the external and RMB depreciation. Now that the external market has risen sharply, the stock market has not risen.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:51:45
                                                When the renminbi rose, the market did not rise and fall, and when the dollar began to rebound, the market rushed into the ditch.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:48:53
                                                In the morning to 6.77, the A50 rose by 1%, and the result rose to 6.76 at noon. It was really wonderful to see all the gains in the broader market. I used to be 7 stocks in the stock market downturn. There are still 2800 stocks. Now, 6.76, the market is not even able to stand 2600 points.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:36:51
                                                Aviation high, papermaking skyrocketing
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                                                1
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                                                Great
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                                                Why can't the stock market keep up?
Published on 2019-01-11 11:29:45
                                                Good things, good things
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                                                Layout Skyworth figures, optimistic about the start of the skyrocketing market
Published on 2019-01-11 11:30:02
                                                666
Published on 2019-01-11 11:30:08
                                                Stocks also rose a little
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                                                The normal situation should be 6.0
Published on 2019-01-11 11:30:24
                                                Ha ha
Published on 2019-01-11 11:30:26
                                                How did the stock market react? It is said that it is super big profit.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:30:26
                                                The renminbi has broken the pocket of my stock market?
Published on 2019-01-11 11:30:34
                                                Hot money accelerates into the sky
Published on 2019-01-11 11:31:11
                                                Broken again, congratulations!
Published on 2019-01-11 11:31:12
                                                Renminbi depreciation
Published on 2019-01-11 11:31:30
                                                When will stocks rise?
Published on 2019-01-11 11:31:37
                                                The stock market crashed in the early period, and you said that it was affected by the external and RMB depreciation. Now that the external market has risen sharply, the stock market has not risen.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:31:40
                                                Sofa
Published on 2019-01-11 11:32:22
                                                Sofa
Published on 2019-01-11 11:32:27
                                                We have fallen outside and we have fallen sharply. The depreciation of the renminbi has fallen sharply, and we are still falling as the renminbi appreciates.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:33:06
                                                Look at how the US stocks fell violently tonight.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:33:16
BDS
Published on 2019-01-11 11:33:18
                                                Good aviation
Published on 2019-01-11 11:33:28
                                                Hurry up and the stock market needs!
Published on 2019-01-11 11:33:57
                                                Thousands of daily limit, good for the world
Published on 2019-01-11 11:34:47
                                                Good papermaking, grabbing in the afternoon
Published on 2019-01-11 11:35:27
                                                Did not see that there are good things.
Published on 2019-01-11 11:36:18
                                                can not read it! The dollar’s ​​interest rate hike has fallen, but the yuan’s release has risen, and things must be enchanting!
Published on 2019-01-11 11:36:24
                                                it is good
Published on 2019-01-11 11:36:51
                                                Aviation high, papermaking skyrocketing
Published on 2019-01-11 11:37:03
                                                The stock market is really rubbish!
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